PNCLL Week #8 (3/19-3/25) -- Predict/Report Scores/Discuss

[Dr. Jason Stockton]

Great preview article, only thing that I would note differently is that I think CSU is probably a little more bitter about the overtime loss to go to the championship rather than the 19-6 loss earlier in the season, at least I would be.

You are absolutely correct. That was my bad. . .both of those losses should have been mentioned.

[Dan Wishengrad]

Preview article posted:

http://www.collegelax.us/news/2008/03/2 ... #more-7071

[HammerTime22]

If UPS beats WOU and both CWU and WWU both win out against SOU and L & C and if WOU can win its other remaining games CWU, WWU, and WOU would all be 7 -2 in conference. How does the tie break work for this seeing that they're each 1-1 again each other?

[PNWLaxer]

If there is a three way tie between teams I believe the tie breaker is +/- of the three teams that are tied using the 3 games between the teams.

[UCLABruins]

If there is a three way tie between teams I believe the tie breaker is +/- of the three teams that are tied using the 3 games between the teams.

I believe he is correct and they take the total of +/- 's from each of the games and team with most + would go first followed by the next team.

[Dan Wishengrad]

Correct. Goal differential is the next tie-breaker, in the games played between the tied teams only. Last season this was used to break the three-way tie between Oregon State, Boise State and Washington, who had identical W-L records and had each beaten one of the others and lost to one of the others.

UW beat BSU by 1 goal, BSU beat OSU by 1 goal, and OSU beat UW by 5 goals. So OSU was +4 in goal differential, BSU was 0 in goal differential and UW was -4. OSU got the #3 seed, BSU got the #4 seed and UW was eliminated from the post-season.

[Dr. Jason Stockton]

You are correct on the three-way tiebreaker. . .and it may actually come into play in the D1 playoff run as well. . .

I know there are some serious assumptions here, but if SFU and Oregon finish 1 & 2 (in either order) - the battle for the final playoff spot may come down to Oregon State vs. Washington.

In a similar scenario, Washington beat Montana 14-13, and Montana beat OSU 13-9. If OSU upsets Washington, and all other games hold form, then the three-way tiebreaker comes into play. If UW wins, they are a lock for the 3 seed. . .but if they lose that game by 3, they would fall all the way to #5 and out of the playoffs. Montana is sitting at +3 in that three-way and are thus in for certain in that scenario. OSU (-4) would need to beat UW (+1) by 3 goals in order to get the #4 seed. (OSU would be -1, and UW would be -2). If OSU won the game by 8, they would be the 3 seed, and Montana the #4. . .with UW out.


Certainly, there are teams that could pull off wins and spoil this scenario, but if all of the games hold to form, OSU will not only need to beat UW, they'll need to win by 3 goals to sneak into the playoffs. . .crazy stuff.

[Dan Wishengrad]

I brought up last year's D1 tie-breaker as an example of how it works in response to query about DII in 2008. But with due respect to the good Doctor, it's still a little early to be predicting playoff tie-breakers in D1. Jason is correct that things might wind up with another three-way tie involving the Huskies (which we seem to consistently lose), Griz and Beavs, but there are simply too many assumptions to be made -- and too many conference games to be played -- at this point for it all to shake out that way.

Idaho, Simon Fraser and Washington State have only played two out of eight divisional games, and UW has only played three. At 6-0 Oregon has clinched a spot but nobody else has. At 1-4 Gonzaga and Boise State are still definitely alive too, at least mathematically. At 2-3 Montana surely is still in the hunt of course also, especially considering that the Griz have played the three teams currently at the top of the standings already.

DII is more clearly in focus at this time, as most of the contenders have all played six or even seven conference games already.

[Shawn Carman]

I have crunched the numbers myself and BSU can still make it into playoffs also and it is not as impossible as it may seem. We just have to win out just like we had done last year and we can make a second appearance. Bold Games are still to be played.

Washington (6-2)
beats Boise, Gonzaga, Montana, WSU, Idaho, OSU
loses SFU, Oregon

or

Washington (5-3)
beats Boise, Gonzaga, Montana, WSU, Idaho
loses SFU, Oregon, OSU


BSU (4-4)
beats WSU, Montana, Idaho and OSU
loses Oregon, SFU, Washington, Gonzaga

Montana (4-4)
beats Gonzaga, OSU, WSU, Idaho
loses Washington, SFU, Oregon, BSU

OSU (3-5)
beats Idaho, Gonzaga, WSU
loses Montana, Oregon SFU, Washington, Boise

or

OSU (4-4)
beats Idaho, Gonzaga, WSU, Washingotn
loses Montana, Oregon, SFU, Boise


The Zags could really screw things up if they beat SFU, but Ill cross my fingers and hope that does not happen. SFU is already playing on cloud nine, there is no reason to go and mess that up.

So the standings would go
#1 OREGON/SFU
#2 OREGON/SFU
#3 Washington
#4 BSU

If we lose another div game playoffs are over for us and we will spend out time watching it on the Montana web cast instead. However if everything goes how we plan it to then BSU will be in the 08 PNCLL playoffs.

[AndyP]

Essentially if BSU wins out, they're in. If not, they're out.

Not to jinx anything but I notice Curtis Manning (SFU) has the potential to be 1st team all conference 3 consecutive years for 3 different positions (Attack, Midfield, LSM). Not to mention possibly on the AA list as an Attack in one year, and LSM in another.

Pretty wild. Has that ever happened before? This guy always seems to fly under the radar. I bet he plays goalie next year and coach the year after.

[Hi-Line Lax]

Will Freihofer is a former All-Conference Attack and Midfielder, currently playing defense for Montana... so he could be in the same boat as Manning this year, but other than that I doubt it's happened... if Will does make an All-Conference team this year, I might have to make him play goalie next year... interesting thought.

Also, I'm pretty sure Manning is moving around between a few positions this year, which might make it hard for him to accumulate votes at one spot. He deserves to be an All-Conference player for sure, but might get a few votes for mid and a few for LSM a few for defense and not enough at any position to get on an All-Conference team.

Plus we're going to beat Boise, so you can forget about your math Shawn.

[Mark Brown]

Since not much was said about the actual D2 OOC games this week I'll share some thoughts:
WOU @ Pepperdine on 3/22- Pepperdine is avg. over 10+ goals / game vs. D2 competition this year led by 4 rotating attack men contributing 9.25 ppg. Their starting middies add 4ppg. This has the making of a shootout against a WOU team that has been finding the back of the net consistently. If WOU doesn't overlook a top 25 D2 team in Pepperdine, with Claremont in the near future, I think WOU will prove that they are under-ranked at #18 and win big.
WOU@ Claremont- This game could single-handedly give the entire PNCLL D2 a ton of credibility. Unfortunately for WOU the task is HUGE. Claremont held Whittier to only 7 goals, beat Utah by 10 and UC-Davis by 2. Their only D2 opponent this year was Biola which they beat by 10. Claremont faces Chapman a few days after WOU so they may overlook the Wolves entirely. If WOU can keep this game respectable it helps the PNCLL D2 as a whole.
SOU is really looking forward to hosting both San Jose St. and Humboldt St. this w/e w/ Willamette coming down to help host/ play both teams.
Willamette comes off their first 2 game winning streak ever?! and looks to make it 3 or 4. Knowing nothing of Humboldt and what they have makes it hard to speculate. Coach Will Patton definitely has WU going in the right direction.
Sunday should be the best match-up featuring 3 All-American Defense Men. Ismael Thornz-Mendes of San Jose St. and Dan Snell of SOU were both 2nd team AA's last year. Emanuel Figlia of SJSU was a 3rd team AA last year. If you want to see some of the best D2 defense men in the nation come to Ashland this weekend.
Best of luck to all PNCLL teams playing OOC games this w/e and over Spring Break.

[TheBearcatHimself]

Willamette comes off their first 2 game winning streak ever?!

Has not happened since the club reformed and joined the PNCLL in 2001. However, I have heard rumors that the team had some slight success in the 80's in its first incarnation, so we cannot fully take credit for the "first" WU win streak

[Car RamRod21]

if the scenario above plays out to be true, then these would be the following +/-'s.....

CWU -4
WWU -4
WOU +8

does WWU get the #3 because they won head to head vs. CWU?

[Laxfan87]

Will Freihofer is a former All-Conference Attack and Midfielder, currently playing defense for Montana... so he could be in the same boat as Manning this year, but other than that I doubt it's happened... if Will does make an All-Conference team this year, I might have to make him play goalie next year... interesting thought.

Also, I'm pretty sure Manning is moving around between a few positions this year, which might make it hard for him to accumulate votes at one spot. He deserves to be an All-Conference player for sure, but might get a few votes for mid and a few for LSM a few for defense and not enough at any position to get on an All-Conference team

From what I've read/heard, it seems like he is playing much more LSM then anything else. With some time with a short stick during a man-up