WCLL Bubble Watch

[buffalowill]

To take a page from ESPN.com....Buffalowill's WCLL Bubble Watch.
Disclaimer: I know it is early, but this will be updated at least once a week!

Updated: March 3rd

Western Collegiate Lacrosse League

North Division

Work left to do:

Sonoma State [3-0 (0-0)] - Nice win over fellow bubble team Cal Poly. I previously had them as a lock, but if they stumble in some OCC games and inter-divisional WCLL match ups things could get interesting around selection time.

Central Division

Work left to do:

Cal Poly [3-3 (0-0)] - Loss to Sonoma hurts bad, but thanks to a very strong schedule they can put themselves back into the tourney. That being said they are a long shot.

Stanford [5-2 (0-0)] - Big OCC win vs Northeastern helps ease the pain from the loss at LMU. Considering their schedule, they likely have to win out and advance to the WCLL championship final to receive an at-large selection.

Santa Clara [4-2 (2 -0)] - Nice divisional win vs Cal. While I think their schedule is a bit tougher than Stanford they are in the same boat regarding an at-large bid. MCLA "Bracket-Buster" match up at Stanford this weekend will seal the fate of one of the teams.

California [3-3 (0-1)] - Loss to Santa Clara might prove costly. Looks like the Bears will need to win out and also advance to the finals for any chance at an at-large.

Los Angeles Division

Locks:

Chapman [6 -0 (3-0)] - Rolled through the competition (though game at SDSU was tougher than expected despite the final score). Should be undefeated going into their last two WCLL games (considering they don't have to travel!)

UC Santa Barbara [6-1 (2-0)] - I still have them as lock for the tourney. Test against Northeastern this week.

Work left to do:

Loyola Marymount [4-2 (0-1)] - Win over Stanford looks better now thanks to the Cardinal's upset of Northeastern. They have a lot of meat left on their schedule, but it may be hard for the selection committee to chose a team that does not advance to the conference playoffs.

Claremont Men's Colleges [3-2 (0-0)] - This team needs an upset of either Chapman or UCSB and handle the rest of the LA teams to have a chance. I don't see the committee giving this team much love due to the really weak OCC schedule (I know that NDNU and Whittier are great competition, but they don't help you get an at-large bid!) Wait can they even be considered for an at-large bid? I only count 2 OOC games. They may have something in the works that is not on the mcla.us site.

South Division

Work left to do:

Arizona State [3-1 (0-0)] - Not much changes after sweep of the PAC-10 LA schools. The heart of their OOC schedule awaits.

Arizona [3-3 (1-0)] - See ASU.

San Diego State [3-2 (0-0)] - Hung tough with Chapman for a while. The race in this division could be the toughest behind the WCLL LA.

The picture is not so clear in the South!

[UkraineNotWeak]

Solid analysis there.

I have a few questions though.


1.

Chico: Must upset Oregon and/or one of the Texas schools win at least 1 game in the WCLL Playoffs to have a shot.

This is not likely to happen. Winning 1 WCLL playoff game means they will make the semi-finals.

2.

Sonoma: They must sweep in division and possibly 1 playoff game. Games against Cal Poly and California may have huge at-large implications down the road.

Also not true. How do you figure Sonoma can make the MCLA tournament without making the semifinals? Only a couple teams in history have done that. The only ones I can think of are Cal in 2002, Stanford in 2001, and Cal Poly in 2002.

3.

Davis: Their out of conference slate is not as strong and may need a sweep of the schools out east to be considered for an at-large bid. Shut-out at NDNU will not look good come selection time.

I don't think their performance against NDNU will have any bearing on their selection should they do well the rest of the year.

4.

Cal Poly [3-2 (0-0)] - Huge win over T25 Arizona in Arizona could look better as the season goes on despite UofA's slow start. Must win divisional games.

Again, I know this is early in the season, but how can you state that Cal Poly should be in? They have played 0 divisional games. Stanford, Cal, and Santa Clara are all much better than they were last year.

5.

California [3-2 (0-0)] - Close loss to UCSB and a big win over a solid Washington team looks good. Loss to Chico State at home really hurts their at-large chances. Must win game: UCSD. See Stanford.

Loss to Chico does not affect their chances if they finish first or second in their division. If they win their first round game, they are in the semi-finals. Why is the UCSD game important?

6.

Loyola Marymount [4-1 (0-1)] - Nice wins over other bubble teams Stanford and SDSU. Strong out of conference slate helps their cause. They may need to sweep out of conference if they do not advance to the WCLL playoffs.

May need to sweep out of conference games? How about MUST if they don't make playoffs. Claremont is their most important game. If they lose that game, and assuming they lose to UCSB and Chapman, it may not matter if they sweep their out of conference games (looking at their OOC games, that's not gonna happen) as they will finish 4th in their division. This is also assuming they are not upset by UCLA or USC.

7.

Claremont: May need to surprise UCSB or Chapman due to weak OCC slate. Key games at USD and SDSU.

MUST beat them!

[Ravaging Beast]

2.

Sonoma: They must sweep in division and possibly 1 playoff game. Games against Cal Poly and California may have huge at-large implications down the road.

Also not true. How do you figure Sonoma can make the MCLA tournament without making the semifinals? Only a couple teams in history have done that. The only ones I can think of are Cal in 2002, Stanford in 2001, and Cal Poly in 2002.

Don't forget UCSB 2006

[UkraineNotWeak]

Don't forget UCSB 2006

Duly noted! Ravager, can you chime in with your thoughts?

[Ravaging Beast]

Unlike you, I'm busy at work. You know...I'm a marine biologist. I'm busy pulling golf balls out of whale blow holes. Only available for short posts. Maybe after watching Countdown with Keith Olbermann I'll chime in on Will's interesting analysis.

[buffalowill]

Corrected Cal Poly...I was playing with the words and did not submit the correct version.

BTW a lot of those "mays" will become "musts" soon. The Bubble Watch will grow and evolve....still too early...will become more accurate after another 3-4 weeks.

[byualum]

Unlike you, I'm busy at work. You know...I'm a marine biologist. I'm busy pulling golf balls out of whale blow holes.

Best episode of all time.

[CATLAX MAN]

Unlike you, I'm busy at work. You know...I'm a marine biologist. I'm busy pulling golf balls out of whale blow holes.

Best episode of all time.

The sea was angry that day, my friend........

[CATLAX MAN]

Santa Clara [2-2 (1-0)] - Missed chance for OCC win vs TAMU. See Stanford.

California [3-2 (0-0)] - Close loss to UCSB and a big win over a solid Washington team looks good. Loss to Chico State at home really hurts their at-large chances. Must win game: UCSD. See Stanford.

Before any team can think of going to Dallas, they must make the WCLL playoffs. The game this Friday night between these 2 schools is the "must" win game for each of them. The loser will probably not make the WCLL playoffs.

[Ravaging Beast]

This is to early to put this thing together, but I'm glad you did so we can get some discussion going.
As requested by UkrainNotWeak:

Locks:
Sonoma State [2-0 (0-0)] - Nice T25 win over what may be the best team in the LSA (TAMU). They must sweep in division and possibly 1 playoff game. Games against Cal Poly and California may have huge at-large implications down the road.
Work left to do:
Chico State [1-3 (0-0)] - Early losses to Santa Clara, SDSU and Cal Poly really hurt their at-large chances. Must upset Oregon and/or one of the Texas schools win at least 1 game in the WCLL Playoffs to have a shot.
UC Davis [2-4 (0-0)] - See Chico State. Their out of conference slate is not as strong and may need a sweep of the schools out east to be considered for an at-large bid. Shut-out at NDNU will not look good come selection time.

Neither of these "work to do" teams have a shot at Nationals. Sonoma is the only Northern California team that will be at Nationals. Whoever plays #2 from the north in the WCLL playoffs will have a cake walk.

Central Division
Work left to do:
Cal Poly [3-2 (0-0)] - Huge win over T25 Arizona in Arizona could look better as the season goes on despite UofA's slow start. Must win divisional games and at least 1 game in the playoffs...maybe two.
Stanford [4-2 (0-0)] - Dominating win over USC at the PAC-10 Shootout not looking as good as it did earlier. Loss at LMU may hurt their chances down the line. Must make playoffs, possibly as the #1 seed from the Central, and win at least 1 game to make up for somewhat weak OCC schedule.
Santa Clara [2-2 (1-0)] - Missed chance for OCC win vs TAMU. See Stanford.
California [3-2 (0-0)] - Close loss to UCSB and a big win over a solid Washington team looks good. Loss to Chico State at home really hurts their at-large chances. Must win game: UCSD. See Stanford.

Your assessment here is somewhat correct. The only problem is that none of these teams will be going to Nationals. Cal Poly has a chance, but they need a good showing at the WCLL playoffs. This division is going to be one of the closest playoff races. May come down to a tie breaker again.

Los Angeles Division
Locks:
Chapman [4-0 (2-0)] - They just keep on winning. Must not overlook USC and SDSU. Big match-up at UCSB will most likely determine the #1 LA seed.
UC Santa Barbara [6-1 (2-0)] - Tough loss against BYU does not hurt this team's chances. Key games against Arizona State and Sonoma could have at-large implications.
Work left to do:
Loyola Marymount [4-1 (0-1)] - Nice wins over other bubble teams Stanford and SDSU. Strong out of conference slate helps their cause. They may need to sweep out of conference if they do not advance to the WCLL playoffs.
Claremont Men's Colleges [3-1 (0-0)] - May need to surprise UCSB or Chapman due to weak OCC slate. Key games at USD and SDSU.

No shot at Nationals for LMU or Claremont. They would need more than one surprise to make Nationals.

South Division
Work left to do:
Arizona State [1-1 (0-0)] - They could lock their ticket soon. Nice win over Cal Poly. Missed a big chance against Michigan at home. Must pick up 3 OCC wins and advance to playoffs.
Arizona [1-2 (1-0)] - Big divisional win against USD. Incredibly strong out of conference match-ups remind me of the Wildcat basketball schedule. They need to finish at least .500 OCC and advance to the WCLL semis to receive a bid.
San Diego State [2-1 (0-0)] - Nice win over Chico. Need to upset a few teams and advance to the WCLL playoffs to secure a spot.

This will be the most highly contested division with the most at stake. This division has the most bubble teams. ASU and Arizona both having shaky starts. That's understandable when you get a new coach. SDSU has a chance to put themselves on the map but needs a win in Arizona.

From the wording, this thread seems to be looking at Nationals. It is a highly optimistic outlook for most of the teams. In my mind this field is much smaller. The only teams I see having a chance at Nationals are Chapman, UCSB, SSU, ASU, Arizona, Cal Poly, Cal, and SDSU. I think the WCLL can send 4-5 teams this year. The teams included in this thread seem more like WCLL playoff contenders. If that is the case, where is USC? Do you hate USC (being a UCLA fan) so much that you would omit them subconsciously?

[WestCoastLax15]

2.

Sonoma: They must sweep in division and possibly 1 playoff game. Games against Cal Poly and California may have huge at-large implications down the road.

Also not true. How do you figure Sonoma can make the MCLA tournament without making the semifinals? Only a couple teams in history have done that. The only ones I can think of are Cal in 2002, Stanford in 2001, and Cal Poly in 2002.

Don't forget UCSB 2006

Arizona also did this in 2005...

Clearly it happens more than we might think and it probably should considering the depth in the WCLL.

[UkraineNotWeak]

Arizona also did this in 2005...

Fair point, although SB was #1 or 2 when they beat Zona in the quarterfinal game. However, assuming Sonoma wins their division, they might be playing an unranked team in their quarterfinal matchup if they keep the same format as last year. I don't think they would be deserving of an at-large bid if they lost that game.

Far too speculative at this point, but I think it's safe to say that if you want a chance at an at-large bid you better make the semi-finals. The only teams that can recover from a quarterfinal loss and receive an at-large bid would be a team ranked in the top 10 or 15.

[buffalowill]

Updated for the week of March 3rd.