Who wins the white house

[bste_lax]

Laxfan......I haven't read that, but I'm just going to say, Jesus! Does that take the blue ribbon for longest post in Collegelax history?

I guess you didn't read this board back when John Paul used to post more often.

[Zeuslax]

I don't know about longest, (I've had some other doozies!) but certainly the most intelligent and cogent analysis of the upcoming election to date!
I'll be interested in your thoughts after you DO actually read it!

I like it!! The economy worries me domestically. We need someone that come in with some momentum, which any new president does/has, but a strong economy provides a pillar for their support. The populace has a hard time focusing when they are worried about putting bread on the table.

As for the election I think Laxfan hit the nail on the head. The sheer number of voters on the Dem side has been amazing. In most areas of the country that haven’t been able to handle the size for the Dems. There’s no way of knowing the numbers that haven’t stood in the lines or couldn’t brave the elements due to the amount of time it’s taking to vote. McCain is a very strong candidate and communicates with the vast majority of Americans very well, even when they don’t agree with him. I could only imagine where he would be if he had Obama’s personality…….uhhh probably in the white house right now. With the mobilization on the Dem side and the amount of Indy’s that are registering Dem Obama and Clinton are in a stronger position. Two additional factors apply: There is no way of telling how many are voting in this election against this president, but there are a lot. Then there are the young voters. So far they have flocked to Obama is a huge way. If it’s one or the other vs. McCain I would have to say today that the Dem wins. If Obama and Clinton team up they steam roll and we are looking at the next 16 years of white house control.

There's a new documentary out on HBO that I watched last night. It's filmed by a doctor in Iraq and the lead "character" is another doctor in the hospital. The man in front of the camera put his life on the line by being filmed. The British offered him an out and a scholarship thankfully. Pure tears and it brings to light all the things we read and hear about. None of us here can imagine the pure mental and physical torture we have caused. Doctors killed for saving lives? A Shia screaming for Sadam back!!!!!!!!!! "Starve us, kill us, but just not like this....we don't want Iraq if it's like this, Damn Iraq"! This is while she's in the ambulance on the way to the hospital after another car bombing in her neighborhood.

Think this is an isolated case? You’re out of touch with reality. Try hundreds of times a day across the entire country!! This is what we are putting our country into the hock for? This is why we’ve lost so many American lives by defending America? Huh, what, excuse me? Where is victory to be had? We've already lost and are losing. We can only hope for the future for those people left in the country. Their elected body is incompetent when they are at their best and actually working. They are essentially pimps. A Kurd as leader? Billions of dollars have been stolen by multi-national corporations……..hello Mr. Halliburton, remember me?

Iraq is the biggest and toughest challenge the next President has. He or she has to use the thirst for dealing with someone new in the world (and in this country) as leverage to create a force of transformation in Iraq and Afghanistan. Karzai again said just give me 3 billion dollars and we have virtually no problems. That’s it! I just hope the economy can hold out long enough for the next guy. Unfortunately all of the signs are there for a long term down turn. Say “long term down turn” ten times fast.

[OAKS]

Pure tears and it brings to light all the things we read and hear about. None of us here can imagine the pure mental and physical torture we have caused.

http://www.zonaeuropa.com/20040504_1.htm

The bottom 1/3rd pictures are pretty graphic.

[Timbalaned]

Pure tears and it brings to light all the things we read and hear about. None of us here can imagine the pure mental and physical torture we have caused.

http://www.zonaeuropa.com/20040504_1.htm

The bottom 1/3rd pictures are pretty graphic.

Those are brutal

[FLALAX]

Mccain will win a national election. Both Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Hussein Obama are fatally flawed.

Hillary is already a definite no to 45% of the voting population because of her history and her husband. ( Zogby, and Reuters Polls - Jan 08)

Also, I do not see the average Joe voting for a radical activist whose life experience is urban activism, teaching law at University of Chicago and serving 1 term in the Illinois and US Senates. I have heard him referred to as the empty suit candidate.

National Polls dissect positions, votes, initiatives etc. Hillary, and Obama will get hammered.

If there was an election for the Republicans to lose it was 2004 and the Dem machine was supposed to be organized and larger then ever then. Surprise it was, more dems voted in 2004 then ever before, but so did more independents and republicans.

I am an independent libertarian and unfortunately I do not see my principles winning out. Mccain, Hillary and Obama all believe the state will make every ones lives better. I just want the mail, protected borders, national defense and safe food and drink.

I take Mccain winning 38 states.

[FLALAX]

Zeuslax you need to leave your college campus and read an editorial other then the New York Times. Once that happens you will have a different perspective.

Iraq is polling further and further down importance every day. Why???? Because more people died on Americas highways in December then were killed by violence in Iraq from August - December 2007. We are the most power nation state in the world, and force is a neccessary evil.

the economy has not had a negative quarter in 6 1/2 years. Even with nay sayers talking recession ( 2 quarters of negative growth ) most of the worlds investment banks are still taking positions long on the US economy. Did you see initial corporate and private earnings over the last few weeks, down but still positive and growing. Just not the double digit growth we had gotten used to.

Chicken little, the sky is not falling.

[KnoxVegas]

McCain will win a national election. Both Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Hussein Obama are fatally flawed.

Why is that exactly? McCain's full name is John Sidney McCain III but I guess that does not strike fear in the heart of the electorate like a woman who uses her maiden name in her full name or a Christian whose parents decided to christen him with a Arab middle name.

Last time I checked, neither Clinton nor Obama uses a middle name on any of their campaign literature or in formal introductions. Nice try! What is next? Raising the terror level again prior to the election only to stop them right after the election?

Also, I do not see the average Joe voting for a radical activist whose life experience is urban activism, teaching law at University of Chicago and serving 1 term in the Illinois and US Senates. I have heard him referred to as the empty suit candidate.

Lincoln had similar credentials, didn't he? Then again he also supported sending slaves to Africa as an advocate of the American Colonial Society (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Colonization_Society#Lincoln_and_the_ACS) and that was a little radical for its day.

McCain certainly has a chance but with the economy in a downward spiral and the war in Iraq going nowhere, how can he as the Republican nominee?

Iraq will come back to the forefront as the daily costs of the war are reflected against the present economy. Does anyone else wonder how we are fighting a two-front war and our economy is in the toilet? This is unheard of. Economies soar during periods of war except ours.

[Dan Wishengrad]

Mccain will win a national election. Both Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Hussein Obama are fatally flawed.

Hillary is already a definite no to 45% of the voting population because of her history and her husband. ( Zogby, and Reuters Polls - Jan 08)

There is no doubt that Hillary is a polarizing figure, and that she has high negatives. Her negatives have always been high, and grew higher when she moved to N.Y. and ran for the Senate. In her re-election campaign the anti-Hillary rhetoric was initially at a fever pitch but died out quickly, and she was re-elected with 67% of the vote. She might galvanize the right to get out and support Senator McCain if she winds up capturing the nomination, true enough. But to suggest she is "fatally flawed" is a stretch. While I believe Obama will be a stronger candidate for the Democrats, those who underestimate Clinton will surely wind up even more bitter if she wins -- and she definitely has a chance, despite the glee some on the right have about her potential chances. I think a McCain vs Clinton campaign will be fascinating political theater, and would be a very close race either could win.

The notion that the Dems chances were better in 2004 than they are now in 2008 is an interesting argument, but is not supported by national polling.

[CATLAX MAN]

All of this analysis of the issues, etc. are interesting reading, but a vast majority of the voting public are ill-informed, at best, about the issues. You are giving a lot of credit to the collective intelligence of the voting public, which is probably not due to them.

The bottom line is that, outside of the eastern & western seaboards, the middle of the country generally will vote for the Republican candidate, especially when the Democratic choice is boiled down to a polarizing figure and a inexperienced one. It just isn't going to play in Peoria, as they say.

[laxfan25]

I appreciate the SF opinions of the feelings here in the heartland. Given that in '04 candidate Kerry carried Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota I don't think a Democratic win will be just bi-coastal phenomenon. Along with those states I would add on Iowa and Missouri in the '08 election as well as Texas, gasp!
The story of this upcoming election will be the new "Christian Conservative" bloc - the Hispanic vote - which will go in a landslide to the Democrats. Even with a pro-illegal immigration Republican candidate - that is where the Democratic win will come from in November.

[CATLAX MAN]

It's about being realistic, not idealistic. In the real world, most people don't know/care/vote about the issues. Just in case you don't remember 2004, here is the voting map:



The results are even more striking when you show the results by county:



That appears to be an awful lot of red on those maps.

[OAKS]

That appears to be an awful lot of red on those maps.

There's still an awful lot of rural country in this country.

Also, a radical? Obama is as close to center as you can find in these United States (he's still on the conservative side of center). It's amazing how off-kilter this country's politics are in comparison with the rest of the world, and amazing that 1/2 of the citizens don't think the rest of the world matters.

Here are some other maps

States according to population:


Counties according to population:
[/img]

[Sonny]

Also, a radical? Obama is as close to center as you can find in these United States (he's still on the conservative side of center).

That is laughable Oaks. His rhetoric may appear more toward the center, but his limited voting record indicates otherwise. He is more liberal than Hillary:
http://www.examiner.com/a-538596~Perception_vs__reality.html
http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2007/03/obama_more_liberal_than_kucinich/

States according to population:

Good thing the population doesn't get to directly elect the president.

[Tim Whitehead]

Good thing the population doesn't get to directly elect the president.

Yes, it would be a shame if the majority got what it wanted.

[FLAK]

Good thing the population doesn't get to directly elect the president.

Yes, it would be a shame if the majority got what it wanted.

Like they do in Canadadia with the Poutine and Centralized Health Care, Eh?

Yeah thank god the founding fathers had enough common sense to realize that all the STATES (as in UNITED STATES) should have a voice in federal elections and not just the States with more densely populated areas.