10 Reasons Political Debates are Bunk

[Dan Wishengrad]

The big story of Iowa -- aside from the solid wins by Huckabee and Obama -- was the the huge turnout and the break-down of who voted for whom.

The demographics of Iowa are interesting. The Hawkeye state has roughly the same number of Democrats, Republicans and Undeclared (independent) registered voters. The state went to Bush the past two elections. GOP turnout was up modestly from 2004 yesterday, but turnout in the Dem caucuses absolutely exploded -- from 125,000 four years ago to 239,000 in '08. Obama won among women, won huge among young voters under 30 and especially won the independents, and by significant margins. Iowa is 95% white, with very insignificant percentages of Hispanic and Black voters.

While it is always easy to overestimate the Iowa vote, the numbers themselves spell big trouble for Republicans in November. Independents went mostly to Obama, with only Ron Paul among the Republicans gaining a significant percentage of these undeclared voters. Huckabee won big on the strength of evangelical voters -- 60% of Iowa Republicans describe themselves as born-again Christians and/or evangelicals and they went for Huckabee in a land-slide. Self-described conservatives, however, split evenly among Huckabee and Romney. New Hampshire has a much smaller percentage of evengelical Christians, however, than Iowa does.

The big losers yesterday, of course, are Romney and Clinton. Both Mitt and Hillary had huge organizations and gobs of money which they poured into Iowa in the hopes of winning big. If Clinton doesn't win New Hampshire, she still has a chance in the big states on Feb. 3rd, but the trends of young voters, women and blacks to Obama may be irreversible. Romney, if he loses to McCain in NH, is done -- stick a fork in him. But Mitt won't quit and will likely go so negative he could drag his own party into a Civil War that will lead to a fractured convention this summer.

Edwards is also in big trouble now, and if he loses NH and South Carolina to Obama will likely quit the race. Giuliani is also a huge loser, gaining only 4% in Iowa. Rudy's strategy was to skip the early states and focus on Florida to kick-start his own run to the nomination, but this decision could prove fatal. Mometum is as important in politics as it is in sports.
The big question in New Hampshire is who will come in second in the GOP primary. If Romney comes a close second to McCain, then South Carolina will be very, very interesting. But if Mitt gets trounced again and Huckabee does respectably in a state where he has no natural constituency, watch out for a two-man race between Huck and McCain the rest of the way.

[Beta]

Dan,

Maybe you can tell me the appeal of Huckabee...because I do not see it...anywhere...

[Dan Wishengrad]

Huckabee's greatest strength appears to be likeability, honesty, and his ability to connect personally to voters. This personal connection can't be underestimated -- it is what Bill Clinton had and what his wife Hillary lacks. It's an "aw shucks" populism that stands in stark contrast to a phony, elitist like Romney.

Many in both the GOP and the Democratic party ridicule both Huckabee and Obama for lack of gravitas and foreign-relations experience. These two can counter effectively, however, by pointing out how much experience Cheney and Rumsfield brought to the current administration and what it resulted in. Voters are saying they want change this time around, and both Huckabee and Obama certainly represent change from politics as usual.

[StrykerFSU]

Obama won among women

This is very encouraging. I don't care for Obama or Hillary's politics but to see that female voters are looking past gender and not deciding to vote for Hillary just because she's a woman is refreshing and surprises me. I like days when the American public surprises me in a good way. Now if we could only get that other segment of Americans to cast their vote for a candidate for a better reason than because their church tells them too.

"Help set the Republican Party back another 4 years - Vote Huckabee '08"

[Jac Coyne]

The state went to Bush the past two elections.

Did they have a 2000 recount in Iowa, too? Or is there a demographic angle us laymen don't understand? Al Gore may have single-handedly devalued the Nobel Peace Prize (with help from Yassar Arafat), but he won Iowa.

Huckabee rolling in Iowa will do him more harm than good. It will frighten most Reps into voting for a more viable candidate in the other primaries.

Anyone see Edwards' second place speech? This close to getting another Dean-like meltdown. Bubba looked medicated during Hillary's speech.

[Dan Wishengrad]

You're right Jac, and I was wrong. I went by something a talking head said on the tube last night, but just checked the results and Gore indeed edged Bush by about 4,000 votes in 2000. I'll ignore the dripping sarcasm of your words and the implied personal derision of me to wish you a sincere Happy New Year and welcome back to the forum. You were missed around here, bro.

As for what Cliff just said about women voting for Obama, isn't it just as fascinating that a "lily white" state like Iowa voted for a black man? Doesn't this signal a change in America's racial perceptions? If Obama can win in a state like Iowa, then maybe he can win anywhere.

And what about the huge impact the illegal immigration issue was supposed to have had this year? Huckabee's big win among Republicans seem to run counter to the notion that this is the "biggie" for '08.

[Jac Coyne]

I'll ignore the dripping sarcasm of your words and the implied personal derision of me to wish you a sincere Happy New Year and welcome back to the forum. You were missed around here, bro.

Sarcasm, yes. Derision, no. Just giving you a little needle. I think I might need to use more smiley faces. I hope you had a safe holidays, Dan.

Yes, Huckabee winning would seem to belie the immigrant issue, but I read (or heard) somewhere that the people who participate in the Iowa event are of the "activist" (read: nearer the spectrum posts) bent. From what I could understand, this meant the religious right and MoveOn left -- which would jive with the results. My in-laws participated in the caucuses (Johnson County) and they would land near the religious right column.

I think the illegal issue will move to the fore as we move along. We'll see.

Obama warms the heart, but I think the long knives are about to come out. And that just might help him...

[Dan Wishengrad]

Yes, Huckabee winning would seem to belie the immigrant issue, but I read (or heard) somewhere that the people who participate in the Iowa event are of the "activist" (read: nearer the spectrum posts) bent. From what I could understand, this meant the religious right and MoveOn left -- which would jive with the results. My in-laws participated in the caucuses (Johnson County) and they would land near the religious right column.

That has been the conventional wisdom for sure, Jac, but the actual results are a little different this time around. Iowa is not (and has never been) truly representative of the country as a whole, and the caucuses have always been dominated by party regulars on both sides of the aisle. The really remarkable number from yesterday's result is the almost doubling of people who showed up to caucus on the Democratic side. If Obama keeps turning out huge numbers of young people -- who said they were first-time caucus goers -- and independents as a whole, his momentum could well sweep him not only to the nomination but a landslide November win, too.

If somehow Giuliani or Romney still goes on to win the GOP nomination, then you or I will have our public wager here. But I seriously doubt that either Rudy or Mitt can do it now. If somehow the Republicans are smart enough to concur with David Broder's advice and nominate a ticket of McCain & Huckabee, then we could have a fascinating general election and the GOP definitely will have a chance to win.

[Rob Graff]

a ticket of McCain & Huckabee, then we could have a fascinating general election and the GOP definitely will have a chance to win.

I've not followed McCain, beyond to know that he was very, very broke early on. My impression is that he's a defense-conservative, as compared to Huckabee's social conservative orientation. Has there been any conflict in any of the debates between these two on the Iraq issue? How about conflict between the two on social issues? If - and I'm saying if because I don't know the answers to the above questions - those two are diametrically opposed on the Iraq issue and social issues, how can they be on the same ticket?

I don't see HC as VP on any ticket. I'm presuming that Richardson's tithing of his supporters to Obama is an attempt to become Obama's VP. I'm undecided about whether Edwards would be willing to be a VP candidate again, and that begs the question on whether he'd be asked to be a VP by either HC or Obama.

I think Mitt is done. Rudy - likely done, but I would have said the same about Thompson before last night's 3rd place finish. Anyone know how Rudy is doing in Penn/Fla/Ohio/Calif? If he's doing well there, he'd be tough to turn down as a VP at minimum.

[Jac Coyne]

If somehow Giuliani or Romney still goes on to win the GOP nomination, then you or I will have our public wager here.

Now I only get Rudy or Mitt!?! Gee, thanks. What happened to the "whoever-comes-out-for-the-Dems-will-beat-the-Reps-by-10-points" bravado?

And please stop with the McCain/Huckabee thing. That's like me saying I'm worried about a Kucinich/Richardson ticket. Well, not quite, but close.

As for Broder, I found it funny when reading the DailyKos that they HATE him, along with Klein at Time. Talk about eating your young.

[laxfan25]

Obviously posted these in the wrong thread...

Well that was Rudy's game plan from the start - to bypass Iowa - hoping for a big win in NH. Mitt was the big loser last night, even though he won the silver medal. Outspent the Huckster 6 - 1 to lose by a lot.
Barak's on a roll on the Dem side - it's going to be interesting if he pulls out a win in NH as well. He's really galvanizing the independents - like 2 to 1 over Hilary - people do want a change.
If McCain shows well in NH he will be a serious contender, and probably the nominee that the Dems would least like to see at the top of the ticket.
Huckabee is getting lots of press right now, but I don't think he'll hold up to in-depth scrutiny. Mitt's spending the money, but I just think people don't really like him. Rudy's faltering badly.
What's amazing ot me is that based on the coverage, you would have thought that last night was the November election. You've got all these 24 hour news organizations with all these resources geared up for the run to the White House, and with it totally focused on little Iowa - it made me want to gag. After Super Tuesday Iowa will be a distant memory, back to being a flyover state.

Beta replied - "Well Romney has 25% and Huckabee has 34%...that's not a giant lead. I honestly don't think Huckabee stands any chance in the blue states. Romney seems infinitely more likable than Huckabee.

Huckabee may have the Jesus Campers on his side...but there's only enough Kool Aid to go around.

Is this the sign that Obama is indeed a legit chance at a win it all?"

I just think that considering the effort Romney put into winning Iowa (he and his kids practically moved in there), he was dreaming of coming out of there with a big win and then taking his neighboring state of NH to add to his air of invincibility. With the massive expenditure, to almost lose by double-digits is embarassing, no matter what type of spin they put on it.

I think Huckabee, along with the evangelicals, is also trading on his sense of humor. He does have a track record as governor though. I heard an interview with the editor of the Arkansas Times, and he was bemused at how all of the media is falling all over the Huck. He gave some background that was less than flattering, and when you become a front-runner, everyone likes to turn on you - in our typical weird way.

Honestly, Obama's strong showing and wide appeal is gratifying and surprising. I like the guy, a lot, but didn't think he had the depth of experience to take it all the way. Of course, we've seen that being a failed businessman and governor of a state doesn't stop someone from taking a national election.
It'll still be a battle all the way with Clinton, she has formidable resources and is a tough and smart competitor.

I think McCain is going to be the story of this campaign season.

[Dan Wishengrad]

a ticket of McCain & Huckabee, then we could have a fascinating general election and the GOP definitely will have a chance to win.

I've not followed McCain, beyond to know that he was very, very broke early on. My impression is that he's a defense-conservative, as compared to Huckabee's social conservative orientation. Has there been any conflict in any of the debates between these two on the Iraq issue? How about conflict between the two on social issues? If - and I'm saying if because I don't know the answers to the above questions - those two are diametrically opposed on the Iraq issue and social issues, how can they be on the same ticket?

George H.W. Bush derided Reagan's fiscal proposals as "voodoo economics" during their primary election battle, and we all know that Reagan put Poppy on his ticket anyway. McCain and Huskabee have not gone negative on each other at all, and I doubt either of them will. Romney is going to go nuclear-negative in his last-gasp desperate attempt to capture the nomination, and this will only hurt the eventual GOP nominee in the General.

[Adam Gamradt]

Rob, nice call on Huckabee. If this continues, I owe you a coke. I didn't see him coming, nor did I see what is appealing about him. Of course I drastically underestimated the last dimwitted "aw shucks" style politician running for president.

Granted, Chuck Norris probably provides pretty good security, at least in imagination land, where Huckabee prefers to spend most of his time. Crossing a picket line and simultaneously claiming to support the strikers is another good example of this.

I've done some reading, and am astounded by Huckabee's stance on AIDS in 1992, granted he's changed his views since then, or so he says.

“If the federal government is truly serious about doing something with the AIDS virus, we need to take steps that would isolate the carriers of this plague.”

• “It is difficult to understand the public policy towards AIDS. It is the first time in the history of civilization in which the carriers of a genuine plague have not been isolated from the general population, and in which this deadly disease for which there is no cure is being treated as a civil rights issue instead of the true health crisis it represents.”

• “I feel homosexuality is an aberrant, unnatural, and sinful lifestyle, and we now know it can pose a dangerous public health risk.”

Besides a quarantine, Huckabee suggested that Hollywood celebrities fund AIDS research from their own pockets, rather than federal health agencies.

http://thepage.time.com/halperins-take- ... aids-gays/

Putting aside the negativity for a moment, did anyone watch Obama's speech last night? Much like his speech at the DANG in 2004, the man transcended the passive medium of television, and gave a very inspiring speech. Given the size of the grassroots organization behind him, and even disregarding whether he wins the general election, his candidacy has made an impact on American politics. Jack Cafferty described his speech last night as beyond brilliant, and I agree.

Obama is unburdened by the perception of a potential Clintonian dynasty. He is committed to ending the war in Iraq. He is committed to addressing the public health crisis. He speaks of the power held by the people, and the hope that still flows through our veins.

Change is needed in American politics, of that simple fact we can all agree. No offense intended to the old guard currently running the show, but change is coming and is long overdue. Of all the choices available, Obama is now positioned above the fray but must push hard to continue his momentum. A win in New Hampshire by a similar margin makes him the clear favorite.

[Zeuslax]

McCain has admitted that he made a huge mistake by getting "too political" and by getting away from himself. He made the classic mistake of altering his approach and personality. Everyone knows that advisors are never wrong. His tone was lost and his numbers followed. Ultimately he forgot why so many people liked and supported him. Then you add his overwhelming physical and verbal alignment with the president on the war and then his immigration stance. He lost his centric support (independents) with the war rhetoric and conservatives on the immigration issue. This placed him in a very precarious position in my opinion. If it wasn't for his record, genuine hero status and previously banked respect he would have been cooked. He cut the crap and now he seems to be in the thick of things again.


The Republican Party has been quantified as two or three fold typically. I think this is what Mr. Graff was referring to? You have the traditional economic-defense republican and then you have the social-economic-defense Republican. The perceived economic positions of MH seem to be a real problem with active Republicans. McCain has never been a darling of the right or religious right. However, he spoke a little more plainly and has been able to garner the support and respect from centrists and independents to stay strong throughout his career. With all of this being said, I’m not sure in a “normal” election he could vet enough of the religious base to garner the nomination. However, this election seems to be like no other. With the other Republican candidate’s inherent geographical weaknesses and the right momentum going in to Super Tuesday, McCain could do it.


Now I only get Rudy or Mitt!?! Gee, thanks. What happened to the "whoever-comes-out-for-the-Dems-will-beat-the-Reps-by-10-points" bravado?

Any of the top three, in any year, could beat the Republican nominee from this group. If Bloomberg gets in it could very likely be a 10 point blow out. Unless the Democrats all get caught with dead hookers, taking acid, pledge to increase troops in Iraq, cut taxes, declare to make our southern border wide open and strengthen no oil company left behind the Republicans don’t have a chance. The Republicans have a better chance if they could get one of the 3 Dem’s to hook up with Huck on the Green Party ticket. Giuliani is an empty shirt and a dictator, MR will say anything and has, McCain has flexed beyond his 20 year record and won’t get the independents in many states (in states that allow Independents to vote in open primaries) and Huck probably only has social strength. Plus I believe that everyone sees through the fat kid turned skinny trying to get back at all of us operation. Oh yea, then there’s the little issue with the party being associated with the president of the United States and the Reb gov't the last 8 years. That could hurt them a little.

[laxfan25]

Good thoughts all. I was in a bar last night (big surprise) and could only see the picture, so I didn't get all of the talking head analysis. Headed to 5 o'clock so I'll pick up NPR on the ride home.
I really thought that Hilary was going to walk to the nomination and the presidency, now it looks like she'll have a battle for the nomination.
I'm certainly not unhappy, and it is great to see the enthusiasm that Barak seems to be unleashing. This road seems to have parallels to his run for the Senate in Illinois - where he galvanized groups of people that you wouldn't have expected, to win in a landslide. If he does grab the independents in his sway - it's all over. Coming in without HC's high negatives, with a potential swath of wide support behind him and with the ability to deliver an uplifting message, maybe he can be the one to break us out of this huge cycle of negativity we've gotten in, and that breath of fresh air is appealing to many, many people that have tired of politics as usual. We will be facing huge problems in many areas, but maybe he can be the one to lead us through the fray to some actual answers.
My only concern about his chances going is was the underlying latent racism in the country, but I think he can overcome that. I thought his time would come, I just wasn't expecting it to be so soon.
Barakamania!