The Final Sixteen?

[CPLaxGM]

Looking at last week's scores, this weekend's playoff results (so far), and the last poll, it's fairly difficult to figure out which team will round out the bottom of the tourney bracket. Let's just say no one is really stepping up to grab the final spot and someone may have to back into that last slot.

Here are the teams that I think will be heading to Dallas regardless of what they do in the next week (not necessarily in this order just using the numbers for counting purposes):

1. BYU
2. CSU
3. Oregon
4. Colorado
5. Arizona
6. ASU
7. Michigan
8. SSU
9. UCSB
10. UMD

I also think that for the first time ever the PCLL will have two teams in Dallas, unless one of them just plays really poorly in their last few games. So that brings us to:

11. BC
12. Northeastern

I think it is highly unlikely that any of the leagues represented above (RMLC, WCLL, CCLA, UMLL, PNCLL, PCLL) will have an unlisted team upset the frontrunner. Michigan has lost to Oakland in the CCLA tourney a few times in past years, but Oakland is obviously way down this year and it doesn't look like Michigan State is quite on par with the Wolverines (Michigan beat MSU today by eight). UMD is the class of their league, and even though Minnesota always plays them tough they won't get within 6 goals of the Bulldogs. Like UMD, Oregon is currently head and shoulders above the rest of the PNCLL and I really doubt that Simon Fraser will be able to beat them.

So that leaves four teams to go with 3 AQ's still undecided. The likely winners:
GRLC - Lindenwood (13)
LSA - Texas A&M (14)
SELC - UF/Georgia (15)

So who is getting that last spot? Simon Fraser? They can't earn an at-large berth because they didn't play enough out-of-conference games. Same with Georgia. Maybe if Georgia wins the SELC, the final spot will go Florida. How about FSU? They were in the top 10 for most of the season, but it seems like they have to drop out of the top 16, doesn't it? Utah? They're under .500 and lost to a Division B team. Cal Poly? Even though I am not on the sidelines anymore I try to avoid discussing my own team, but obviously we lost a couple of games that we really needed to win. It's possible that Lindenwood or Texas A&M could still earn the final at-large berth even if they lost the AQ, potentially giving the GRLC or the LSA two teams.


The interesting thing is that there are going to be a few teams in Dallas that have really been flying under the radar all season (BC, UF, Georgia). And a couple of teams that seemed like definite qualifiers a few weeks ago (FSU, Utah) that now appear to be on the outside looking in.

[FaceKid44]

UGA beat Florida 13-12 to take the SELC. The Dawgs are headed for Dallas

[Jpalm]

I think the Gators deserve an at-large after a late season surge. They beat FSU in their last regular season game, and then USC and VT in the SELC tourney. Loss to UGA in the final was a nail with the game winner coming at .14.

[Zeuslax]

and lost to a Division B team

Why would this hurt Utah? I can understand that a lose hurts them and if it was a lose to a poor team, but Westminister is far from a low caliber team regardless of division.

[scooter]

and lost to a Division B team

Why would this hurt Utah? I can understand that a lose hurts them and if it was a lose to a poor team, but Westminister is far from a low caliber team regardless of division.

its hard to justify putting a team into the top 16 when they are 6-8 (i think) and lose to a B team.

No matter how good Westminster is, if Utah is ranked 13th in the country, and drop a game to an unranked team (because I don't know where Westminster would be in the A poll, if anywhere)...it hurts

[jessexy]

i still dont get how Utah is 6-8 and ranked #13. i've been saying this for years, that you have to win games to earn points in the rankings. i still dont get it. Even if the lost to the Top 8 teams in the rankings currently, they still lost those games and haven't proven themselves as the 13th best team in the country. I'm not bashing Utah at all. I guess I'm frustrated with the system. Teams shouldn't get credit for going undefeated against the worst teams in the league without playing the best, and teams should get penalized for losses that they suffer, even if they come against the best teams in the country. Am I the only one that thinks this?

[scooter]

yes and no....i still think that UMD should be higher even though they lost 3 games this year, including 1 to the Utes, but that's pretty much where I stop..

I think each situation should be judged individually rather than generalizing the entire process

[bullhighutewoozgriffclam]

utes always put themselves in these situations. being on the bubble is lame. i would know. i was on the utes squad last year when we got ousted by poly for a tourney bid.

the utes lost two games they weren't supposed to and they won two games they weren't supposed to.

that may be one reason why they haven't seemed to budge from that lucky number 13 spot almost all year.

mad ups and down's.

i still feel crappy for beating them a few weeks ago......but not that crappy.

if that loss keeps them out of the tourney then i'll feel waaay crappy.

i'd still vote 'em in over all of the other bubble teams. due to their sos and overall "resume".

[More Cowbell]

i'd still vote 'em in over all of the other bubble teams. due to their sos and overall "resume".

They're 6-8. How is their resume impressive enough to get them an at-large? They lost 5 of their last 6 games. It doesn't make sense to put them in the tournament after they went on a downward spiral at the end of the season.

No matter how good Westminster is, if Utah is ranked 13th in the country, and drop a game to an unranked team (because I don't know where Westminster would be in the A poll, if anywhere)...it hurts

I agree with scooter. Claremont was one of the best B teams last year, and they just broke into the top 25 at the end of this season. Based on that, it's likely that Westminster would be in the bottom of the top 25 at best. A loss like that should be enough to keep anyone out of the tournament.

[aggielax]

Just a reminder, this is the same westminster team that lost to uc davis 16-4 in Davis' 3rd game in 3 days at westminster. ucd was never ranked once this season. Im pretty sure a team ranked #13 should be able to beat westminster without an issue.

[laxalum16]

Life's tough in the big bad world of selecting the at-large bids for the national tournament. I'm not sure how anyone thinks that a different system would work any better. Someone is always going to think that the at-large selections are wrong and someone is always going to think they are spot on. We are all biased toward certain teams and think someones schedule was harder than someone elses, and someone lost a fluke game that shouldn't be cited as a reason for a drop out of the tourney. The fact is there are only 16 spots in Dallas, and i don't know who you think would be better to vote than the coaches that have seen many (if not all) of the teams that they are voting on. I read these boards almost daily and i haven't heard a selection theory better than the one we've got. just my 2 cents.


p.s.- a loss to a (however good they might be) B Division team is still a loss to a B Division team. This is the A Division National Championship Tournament we're talking about. No Any Given Sunday arguments! Champions win no matter what.

[More Cowbell]

Teams shouldn't get credit for going undefeated against the worst teams in the league without playing the best, and teams should get penalized for losses that they suffer, even if they come against the best teams in the country. Am I the only one that thinks this?

No.

[bullhighutewoozgriffclam]

6-8 isn't much of a record, until you consider who they lost to:

ASU #4
U of A #12
CSU #2
CU #6
U of O #3
Chapman (would be top 20 for sure maybe top 15)
BYU #1
WC #2B

that's the number 1,2,3,4,6,12,15 to 20ish, and #2B (who knows what A) (WC) teams. not many teams would come out any better. they (utah) could be 4-10 but they've won two big upsets this year against the #8 and #10 teams.

two tough losses in there, i contest to that. it's hard though. do you fault a team for having a losing record against all the powerhouse teams or reward them for playing (and getting a couple unexpected wins)? do you reward a team for having an unblemished record against some of the lesser teams, as do many of the other bubble teams?

it's not up to me.

you all know my opinion. my gut tells me utah will be ousted once again. if this happens, as in last years case, they will have only themselves to blame.

mister biased, signing off.

[jessexy]

Thanks for letting us know who they lost to. Now I can see that they lost 8 games and only won 6 games. that means they have a 6-8 record. that 2-8 against ranked (or shoulda been ranked) teams. Last I checked, all of the teams at Nationals will be (or shoulda be) ranked, so should we assume that Utah will go 1-3 or 0-4 if they are chosen as an at-large?

Also, I noticed that they are pulling an O-fer in their conference. I'm defintely sure that qualifies your team to be ranked #13 in the nation and in consideration for Nationals. maybe next time CSU does that we'll let them in too. or UCSB also. Virginia Tech finished undefeated in thei conference, but they lost in the tourney and aren't going to Nationals.

I guess that means that you have to win games in order to go.....this is the problem with the ranking system as it is.

[univduke21]

the SELC and the RMLC aren't even close to same conference. I understand what you are saying, that Utah needed to win more, but really two teams out of the SELC, if VA tech is going then really 3 cause Georgia and Florida deserve to go as well.

All hope is lost for this league if the SELC gets two let alone three teams in the tournamnet this year.