PNCLL Week #9 (4/3 - 4/9) -- Predict/Scores/Discuss

[Dan Wishengrad]

Friday, April 6th
Chapman at Oregon (at Lakeridge HS, Portland)

Saturday. April 7th
Lewis & Clark at Willamette
Montana vs Southern Oregon (at Whitman)
Puget Sound at Western Washington*
Utah at Oregon
Washington at Simon Fraser
Western Oregon at Pacific Lutheran

Sunday, April 8th
Albertson vs Montana (at Whitman)
Southern Oregon at Whitman
Western Oregon at Puget Sound

* = make-up game for earlier postponement

If the calendar shows April it must be a week of important divisional games. Everyone has an eye on the standings, trying to figure out playoff possibilities in the A and B Divisions. Here's how things shake out in the B Division with two weeks left in the regular season (only divisional games considered), ranked in order of the team's playoff standing today:

1. Montana (5-0; SOU at WC, AIC at WC; WOU) The Griz record here reflects a forfeit over Linfield. Montana has a tough remaining schedule, but has clinched a playoff berth even should they somehow lose all three games. If the Griz win all three, of course, they would capture the B-South and with it the #1 overall seed. Montana could lose a game and still be the PNCLL B's #1 for playoffs, if they wind up tied at 7-1 with WWU, over whom they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. But if Montana gets beaten by SOU or by WOU, they could lose the B-South top spot to either team and be forced into a quarter-final game. The Raiders-Grizzly game in Walla Walla should be a good one this Saturday.

2. Western Washington (5-1; UPS, at CWU). The Vikings have clinched a playoff spot, and will win the B-North and a bye directly into the semis with wins in their final two games. Since WWU owns the head-to-head tie-breaker over PLU, the Vikes will also clinch the B-North top spot with one win and a Lute loss. Should WWU stumble down the stretch with two losses, it would open the door to PLU to finish ahead of the Vikes in the standings.

3. PLU (5-1; WOU, L&C). The Lutes may be limping towards the finish line -- having lost their Goalie and best Middie to injuries -- but the Lutes have already clinched a spot at the dance regardless. Winning the two remaining home games would either give the Lutes the bye into the semis or, more likely, assure a home game in the quarter-finals.

4. Southern Oregon (4-1; UM at WC, at WC, at AIC). The Raiders capture the B-South crown by sweeping out their remaining three games. A win in any of the three will all-but guarantees a playoff berth for SOU, and two wins would likely ensure a home game in Ashland. Should the Raiders trip up and lose all three games it is possible they could be out of the playoffs, depending on who else ties at 4-4.

5. Western Oregon (4-1; at PLU, at UPS, at UM). The Wolves have their playoff fate in their own hands, and by sweeping all three games WOU is no worse than tied for the B-South crown. Coupled with a SOU loss this would give the Wolves the B-South title. If WOU and SOU both win out, WOU would rank behind the Raiders but ahead of Montana. Things will get interesting for the Wolves should they lose all three games, as they might miss out of the playoffs in a tie at 4-4. But if WOU can follow up their successful OOC trip with even one win in their remaining games, they will return to the post-season for a second straight year.

6. Albertson (3-2; UM at WC, SOU, WC). Albertson would get the final playoff spot by virtue of one fewer loss in the standings. The Yotes have three tough games remaining, and probably have to beat at least Whitman to have a shot at holding this spot.

Outside and looking in, at this point, are Whitman (3-3; SOU, at AIC) and Central Washington (3-3; WWU, WU), who both need to win their remaining two games to get into the playoffs or get some help to squeeze in at 4-4. UPS is still mathematically alive, but the Loggers are on life-support with must-wins against both WWU and WOU needed this weekend to stave off elimination.

Kyle will take a look at the A Division playoff picture shortly...

[woulax23]

5. Western Oregon (4-1; at PLU, at UPS, at UM). The Wolves have their playoff fate in their own hands, and by sweeping all three games WOU is no worse than tied for the B-South crown. Coupled with a SOU loss this would give the Wolves the B-South title. If WOU and SOU both win out, WOU would rank behind the Raiders but ahead of Montana. Things will get interesting for the Wolves should they lose all three games, as they might miss out of the playoffs in a tie at 4-4. But if WOU can follow up their successful OOC trip with even one win in their remaining games, they will return to the post-season for a second straight year.

This was a good breakdown for all of the teams Dan, but you made one tiny error. This would be western's second year in three going to play-offs. It's Southern who looks like they will be earning the distinction of two trips in two years. But i know it is though for you to do the write-ups for a different division so i won't be giving you too hard of a time about this little slip up...... just don't let it happen again!!!

[Dan Wishengrad]

5. Western Oregon (4-1; at PLU, at UPS, at UM). The Wolves have their playoff fate in their own hands, and by sweeping all three games WOU is no worse than tied for the B-South crown. Coupled with a SOU loss this would give the Wolves the B-South title. If WOU and SOU both win out, WOU would rank behind the Raiders but ahead of Montana. Things will get interesting for the Wolves should they lose all three games, as they might miss out of the playoffs in a tie at 4-4. But if WOU can follow up their successful OOC trip with even one win in their remaining games, they will return to the post-season for a second straight year.

This was a good breakdown for all of the teams Dan, but you made one tiny error. This would be western's second year in three going to play-offs. It's Southern who looks like they will be earning the distinction of two trips in two years. But i know it is though for you to do the write-ups for a different division so i won't be giving you too hard of a time about this little slip up...... just don't let it happen again!!!

I'll own up to that error. Now you must own up to yours for calling your team "western", something I have gone out of my way to stop calling WWU since you guys joined joined the PNCLL.

[Kyle Berggren]

So my new Dell just decided to shut down (8 hours old)... which is the reason I replaced my old Dell... I'll try to get this out again quickly as it was erased. The A playoff picture will be decided shorty..

1. Oregon (4-0, Zags, Vandals) is in. I know big shocker. They're the #1 seed if they win out or drop 1 game, they could be the #2 if they drop their remaining 2 division games.

2. Fraser (4-1, Huskies) is also in... Another big shocker. Their only PNCLL loss was to the Ducks, which is why with a little magic they could be the #1 seed (Ducks drop 2 games), but they could also be the #2 or #3. If the Clan wins they are the #2. If they lose, they're at 4-2, losing the head to head with UW, making UW the #2 seed.

3. Huskies (3-2, Clan) might be in... I'm going to deviate from the format here to make this easier & come back to it, but if they beat SFU @ SFU, they're in... If not, it's going to be tough.

4 & 5. Beavers & the Broncos (both 1-3, Vandals, Zags) might be in... They both need to win out on the road. OSU needs a little help, but here's how it works. If UW best SFU there is only 1 playoff spot left, if both the Broncos & the Beavs win out, they're tied at 3-3, while BSU wins the head to head tie breaker putting the Broncos in the playoffs. If you're a Broncos fan, win out, hope Oregon wins a few games, you're making a playoff appearance. If you're a Beavers fan, pull out your Canadian flags because here's where the fun comes in.

If SFU beats UW, the Huskies drop to 3-3. If both OSU wins out & BSU wins out we have a 3 way 3-3 tie, but the Huskies will be on the outside looking in.

UW +1 over BSU
BSU +1 over OSU
OSU +5 over UW

The totals end up being...

OSU +4
BSU Nil
UW -4

...leaving the Huskies as the five seed, but only take 4. Have the Beavers ever hoped for a Canadian win? We'll see.

6. Zags (1-2, Ducks, Beavs, Broncos) are not mathematically eliminated, but will have a tough road ahead going through the Ducks. They will most likely need to win all 3 remaining games to make it, but we'll have to see with goal differential if they do not.

7. Idaho (0-3, Beavs, Ducks, Broncos) is actually mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. They can however play spoiler for some other team, namely the Broncos & Beavs.

Okay, I'm done here, hopefully this thing won't shut off again... I recommend buying a Mac... Dan please correct me if I'm wrong on any of that stuff, I think I got it.

[Dan Wishengrad]

Pretty good, Kyle... except for the analysis of Gonzaga and Idaho. The Zags don't need to "win all three games to make it". If GU beats BSU and OSU they clinch the #4 playoff spot and eliminate both the Broncos and Beavers from the playoffs, regardless of the outcome of the Ducks-Zags game. And Idaho can indeed make the playoffs if the Vandals win out and the Zags lose two games. Yes, this means that Idaho would have to upset Oregon, but it can not be stated that it is a mathetmatical certainty they will not.

A loss by either OSU or BSU drops that team's record to 2-4 at best. UO and SFU have 4 wins, UW has 3 and owns the head-to-head tie-breaker over GU if the Huskies and Zags finish tied for third place at 3-3.

But a 2-4 team could very well make the playoffs, regardless of the UW-SFU outcome! Here's one scenario: GU beats BSU by 1. OSU beats GU by 1. BSU beats UI, but the Vandals upset OSU. UO beats both GU and UI. The standings would be:

1. Oregon 6-0
2. Simon Fraser or Washington
3. Washington or Simon Fraser
4. BSU 2-4
4. GU 2-4
4. OSU 2-4
7. UI 1-5

Goal differential would not break the tie between the Beavers, Broncos and Bulldogs in this hypothetical... the next tie breaker is goals allowed in those three games.

Gonzaga, Boise State, Oregon State and Idaho can each go to the playoffs at 2-4, depending on who beats who and by how many goals.
Could be a wild finish!

[ZagGrad]

I love all the thought going in to the scenarious guys. Nice job.

[woulax23]

My picks for the week

Friday, April 6th
Chapman at Oregon (at Lakeridge HS, Portland) - I like Oregon in this game because i think they will have a fire under themselves after losing their last two. I like the ducks 14-10 in this one.

Saturday. April 7th
Lewis & Clark at Willamette - I have a feeling this will be a great game with Lewis and Clarke really fighting hard for their first win this season. Unforunately for them i think Willamette's offense might be clicking a little better than Lewis and Clarke's so i think the Bearcats will win 10-5.
Montana vs Southern Oregon (at Whitman) - I don't know if Southern can win this one, i think Montana will be just as hungry as UO and they will be tough to beat for the rest of this season and i think Southern's shorter numbers might come into play. If Southern does win this game i think they will have to be more physical than Montana and have some really good offensive possesions. I am certainly not saying it can't be done, but i like Montana 15-9.
Puget Sound at Western Washington - Even though i am sure that UPS will be playing all out to keep their playoff hopes alive, i feel like WWU is playing at an extremely high level right now and i can't see them losing against an unranked UPS squad. I think it will be WWU to the tune of 16-6.
Utah at Oregon - Utah lost to Arizona and got trounced by CSU, other than that i don't know anything about this Utah team, so i have to like the home team in this matchup. Go Ducks!!! i think they will win it 15-9.
Washington at Simon Fraser - I think that the Huskies might be in for a tough game here, they are having to play in Canada against a Simon Fraser team that seems to be very potent this season. I think it will be Simon Fraser 16-11.
Western Oregon at Pacific Lutheran - I don't like to predict my own team's scores very often, it brings a bad juu-juu on the team.

Sunday, April 8th
Albertson vs Montana (at Whitman) - I am going to go with the Griz in this one because i think that their stellar offense will start to bring it together and harass a defense that is led by a young keeper. I think it will be Montana 18-7.
Southern Oregon at Whitman - This could be the most exciting game of the weekend. Southern might be tired after their long drive up to Whitman and their game against the Griz the day before. I am calling this my upset game just because of Southern's long schedule and small numbers. I think it will be tight with Whitman pulling off the upset at 13-11.
Western Oregon at Puget Sound- Once again, we don't like the bad juu-juu. But everyone have a happy Easter!

[I'm back baby!!!]

congrats to the pncll on having 5 teams in the top 25, hopefully we will all continue to rep our league well, good luck to all this weekend in the battle for playoff positioning, unless of course your playing WOU.

[Tyler Baumann]

WOU thanks for the extra motivation.....

[woulax4]

Dear SOU… We all know from experience that you are more that able to beat the best and I know the rest of us down here are hoping you put those teams away… Shock the world...

[Shawn Carman]

Great Job Kyle and Dan,

You guys are doing very well with the play by play of how the seeds might do depending on the outcome of all the different games.

I have been doing a little crunching of the numbers myself and I wanted to ask either of you or anybody else for that matter if they could answer it for me.

This is the situation, if it ends up that OSU, BSU and UW all tie with a 3-3 record the break down would go.

OSU (beat UW by 5; lost to BSU by 1) = +4
BSU (beat OSU by 1; lost to UW by 1) = 0
UW (beat BSU by 1; lost to OSU by 5) = -4

That leaves BSU and OSU for the #3 and #4 seeds in the playoffs, my question is -
Does OSU get the #3 seed and BSU the #4 because OSU has the higher goal differential of +4?
OR
Does BSU get the #3 seed and OSU #4 because BSU beat OSU in head to head match-up?

Just trying to see what our chances are.

[Kyle Berggren]

I wish I could answer that off the top of my head, hopefully Dan will know without having to check. I was thinking about it as I was typing that out, but got a little bit side tracked & never went to check. I'm off to practice now, but if Dan doesn't have an answer when I get back, I'll try to figure it out for you guys.

[Dan Wishengrad]

Shawn:

In that screnario BSU would be #4, your win over OSU notwithstanding.

Head-to-Head is the first tie-breaker, but it doesn't apply in a three-team tie if A beats B, B beats C and C beats A. That is the exact situation in this hypothetical (UW, BSU and OSU tied at 3-3). Head-to-Head is OUT and the next tie-breaker, goal differential, is applied. The Beavers would be #3, the Broncos #4 and the Huskies would be outside, looking in...

[Shawn Carman]

That answers my question, thanks Dan and Kyle.

It looks like our team is going to be rooting for UW against SFU, because no matter what happens the best we can finish is 4th.

Good Luck UW this weekend, BSU is rooting for you!

[Timbalaned]

Oregon 18 Chapman 10 (unofficial score, official on winner) I guess it was like 15-3 going into the fourth before a lot of back ups went in