3/28/07 Division A Poll is out!

[Sonny]

No computer will solve this problem.

Right now, I can't tell what factors pollsters are relying on.

The factors are knowledge, experience & good judgement, something no mathematical computer based system can ever hope to achieve.

Catlax is in the running for post of the year.

But it's very early and MandibleS4L hasn't posted anything witty in awhile.

[ineedmorecowbell]

i don't think this poll is that bad. i think that some of the perennial top teams like ucsb and sonoma are getting the benefit of the doubt though. if i were to rank them, it would be something like this:

mich
byu
oregon
csu
cu
asu
umd
northeastern
utah
u of a
sonoma
ucsb
fsu


asu has some quality wins, especially yesterday's.

umd is a very good team. however, they did lose three straight games, albeit them only by a total of three goals so i dropped them two.

northeastern really only has the win against arizona, but they beat them pretty handily. i just don't know where else to put them.

i obviously know the most about utah, so they'll get a lengthier analysis. they're a very young team with a very young defense and that showed their first two games. the arizona trip could have been a 2-0 trip were they not the team's first two games. the illinois overtime game was apparently just one of those games where nobody can hit the cage and nobody is on the same page. after an emotional duluth win, the classic let down game. i think utah is definitely top 10 material (and was last year, but that's a different story.) but especially this year with other teams being down.

arizona has had a couple of tough losses, but they haven't beaten anyone in the top 10. that's my justification for putting utah above them.

sonoma and ucsb are still good teams, but not as good as years past and so i dropped them a bit too.

florida state just hasn't proven to me that they're a top team. the only highly ranked team they've played is michigan, and they were beaten handily. if they were blowing all these other teams out of the water i wouldn't have a problem with them being ranked so high, but they're not.

however, even with all these changes, i think this week's poll is pretty good nonetheless.

[Ben Clark]

If we are going to take this poll system so seriously, pollsters need to take things more seriously.

I will put one out next poll. That is not even the point. These voters apply for the job and take the responsibility. When you see the following at the bottom of the page, meaning some voted for these teams, it means that maybe more thought should be put into this.

I want to see what you think THIS poll should look like. Seriously, instead of criticizing the voters, post your poll.

I'm sure I speak for all voters when I say we take this responsibility seriously.

[John Paul]

Interestingly, if you compare our poll with the LaxPower rankings...and then you compare the NCAA D1 poll (assuming their voters are using the NCAA criteria) and the LaxPower poll - ours is closer. Our top 5 is almost identical. In D1 the #2 team according to LaxPower is 8th in the poll. The #8 Laxpower team is unranked.

Regardless, as Catlax pointed out and Matt Holtz illustrated, LaxPower is definitely not a good indicator of how teams should be ranked. It has always had a degree of accuracy, but it also always has a handful of glaring inconsistencies (and i don't mean teams that are 2 or 3 spots off, but teams that are nowhere near where they should be).

All interesting food for thought, but this issue comes up every year. You'll never get a poll everyone agrees on. If you did, there would be no need for the poll. We could just have Sonny list his top 25 and we'd be done.

[lex]

Give [UMD] a break, they played a tough schedule and didn't win, but they were in every game and lost again to the #2 and #4 team in the nation by a total of TWO goals. They are where they deserve to be.

This is what I'm talking about, is it the margin of victory or the victory itself that counts? I'm not sure all pollsters are on the same page on this one. There is simply a lack of consistency, and MCLA should adopt some standards for pollsters to consider, just like the NCAA does. It would make the polls more legit and it certainly couldn't hurt.

[horn17]

Interestingly, if you compare our poll with the LaxPower rankings...and then you compare the NCAA D1 poll (assuming their voters are using the NCAA criteria) and the LaxPower poll - ours is closer. Our top 5 is almost identical. In D1 the #2 team according to LaxPower is 8th in the poll. The #8 Laxpower team is unranked.

Regardless, as Catlax pointed out and Matt Holtz illustrated, LaxPower is definitely not a good indicator of how teams should be ranked. It has always had a degree of accuracy, but it also always has a handful of glaring inconsistencies (and i don't mean teams that are 2 or 3 spots off, but teams that are nowhere near where they should be).

All interesting food for thought, but this issue comes up every year. You'll never get a poll everyone agrees on. If you did, there would be no need for the poll. We could just have Sonny list his top 25 and we'd be done.

Agreed! Thats why he's the president...

[Sonny]

I'm not sure all pollsters are on the same page on this one.

Nor should they be. Otherwise, we could just use the LaxPower Computer poll and get rid of the Human Poll.

[JerzWB]

Duluth can lose 3 games in a row since the last poll, and still be at #6

To me it is pretty simply.

Duluth Loses to #2, #4, and #13
Duluth Beats #15 and #16

#14 anyone? That makes a lot of sense to me.

That being said, UMD will get the AQ from the UMLL and will be in Texas. They played great in Utah, but still have not beaten anyone (top 14) yet! Yes they are up and coming team but haven't done anything than play two top 5 teams close (almost as close as you can get, OT being closer)

There's your motivation Duluth. If they can get past the 2nd round in nationals, they will have beaten a quality top team (probably top 4) and will have proven their claim as a top 5 team, and will be one of the top teams in the country.

PS I don't think Utah is a #13, and I don't believe UMD is #14, I feel that they should be #9 and #10 respectively. Just chiming in with all this computer poll talk.

[Theflow]

From LEX
[/quote]This is what I'm talking about, is it the margin of victory or the victory itself that counts? I'm not sure all pollsters are on the same page on this one. There is simply a lack of consistency, and MCLA should adopt some standards for pollsters to consider, just like the NCAA does. It would make the polls more legit and it certainly couldn't hurt.[/quote]

You nailed it!

[Jolly Roger]

poll Pronunciation [pohl]
–noun
1. a sampling or collection of opinions on a subject, taken from either a selected or a random group of persons.

[Daniel Morris]

This is also what, the third poll of the year? Things will shake out as the season progresses. It is difficult rating teams right now, with so many games still left to be played, the picture will become clearer.

But anyone who thinks using the LaxPower method is a good idea and believes those numbers are an accurate depiction of the league either has no idea about this league at all, or has their own agenda.

Just using my conference as an example, Northeastern at 22 and BC in the Top 15? With NE now 7-0 and BC losing to the one ranked team they have played so far? I believe BC is Top 25 no doubt, but right now, there is no one in their right mind who thinks they should be ranked above NE until they produce a head to head win.

[AIRTERP]

Ah, poll complaining right around the beginning of April. You can set your watch by it. Does this mean we will have 6 more weeks of winter?

This chatter happens every year...I was even a proponent for change in the past. But I have to say the pollsters have done a bang-up job this year. As someone has already said, the polls get consistently better every year and every week.

HOWEVER, I think if we all take a step back (pollsters swallow some pride and opponents chill out) I think there are two things that we can agree make a lot of sense.

1. The Poll is NOT perfect, and never will be, even if computer rankings were somehow incorporated.

2. The pollsters DO take their job seriously and DO the best they can, however from an outsiders perspective the process is a bit cryptic and we are left in the dark about the consistency of criteria used by the pollsters across the nation.

So, as we all take turns crucifying the dissenters like LEX and Theflow, perhaps there is a simple and strong solution for the time being.

Why not leave the poll the way it is, however publicly publish voting criteria? How would this not be a good idea?

First of all, it immediately sheds light on the process. Secondly it makes the inevitable early April debate about the criteria, not the integrity of the pollsters. And third, if not for any other reason, it conveys a united front for the pollsters. They will all be on the same page, and have actual criteria to refer to if and when they need it while facing tougher decisions.

The said "criteria" may even exist already, and if so, let's just make it public.

[bullhighutewoozgriffclam]

is there a reason i can't see the last poll. whenever i click on it it takes me to the recent one. i can't verify it but i don't think utah got any points (or few) for their win over umd. they climed a spot but i remember them being right at the same point level last poll. i might be off but it would be nice to see the previous point levels for everyone.

i think byu should be #1 as much as it pains me to say it. i've seen them play and they're pretty dang good. all cause elliot grow is a bad man. (good thing)

michigan has got the bulk of their schedule coming up and i can't wait to see if they perform like a #1 team. the way this years been going i doubt they come out undefeated in their last 6 games. in order oakland, asu, lindenwood, csu, byu, and michigan state.

rough road but if they can stay on it without faltering i'll back them up.

[CPLaxGM]

um, did I miss something? Where did Chapman go? They seemed to have disappeared off the polls completely?

[bullhighutewoozgriffclam]

i commend the pollsters. thanks for putting up with all of everyone's crap. good luck to you. things will fall in place. or not. either way thanks for fighting through the headaches and bickering.