3/28/07 Division A Poll is out!

[onpoint]

Must have been, beating #1 BYU pretty handily in the quarters in '99.

[lex]

Lex can you post what the rankings would be right now based on your system? It would be interesting to see how different your poll would be from the "coach's poll." Include the number of points each team has.

At the risk of losing my job and blowing up my adding machine, here are the results from lax power, which uses the tools I suggested. (from http://www.laxpower.com/update07/binmen/tsi05.php ) I realize it's not perfect, but it seems much more accurate, at least w/ regard to the top ten.

Notice how they reference the criteria the NCAA Selection Committee probably uses and probably prioritizes and weighs. What a novel idea! I wish the MCLA would get on board and rank some criteria.

1. BYU
2. Michigan
2. CSU
4. OR
5. CU
6. ASU
7. Arizona
8. UCSB
9. Sonoma
10. Utah
11. Chapman
12. Minnesota-Duluth
13. Florida
14. FSU
15. Michigan State
16. Boston College
17. VA Tech
18. Lindenwood
19. Buffalo
20. Loyola Marymount
21. Cal Poly
22. Northeastern
23. Georgia
24. Simon Frasier
25. Georgia Tech

[sohotrightnow]

Were you able to determine the point differential between poll places, i.e. between 1st and 2nd, 10th and 11th?

[Beta]

It may be that the reason Florida State is ranked so low in that interpretation is because of their losses to NCAA teams that were still counted...

Im not sure but perhaps.

[mholtz]

Laxpower is not a good alternative.

At one point in 2005 MSU was 10-0 and only hit #40 in lax power.

The previous year we were 1-6 and in the top 20 on laxpower.

No computer will solve this problem. Also, a lot of the voters are coaches, and some of those coaches may have had games right near when the polling closed (I know I did) so they voted earlier.

I waited as long as I could.

[Tim Whitehead]

In the 10-year history of the national tournament we have only had like 4 or 5 non-Top 5 teams EVER make the national semifinals:
UCSB in 2006 (10 seed wins over 7 seed UCSB and 2 seed Noma)
FSU in 2005 (Noles upset BYU)
UCSB in 2001 (8 seed upsets top seed Michigan)
Stanford in 2001
Simon Fraser in 1999
(Am I missing anyone else?)

IMHO, the poll is pretty accurate and gets more accurate each year.

We were the #5 seed in 1999.

[Theflow]

I'm sorry, but I will never understand top 15 poll voting with this group of voters.

-Duluth can lose 3 games in a row since the last poll, and still be at #6
-Sonoma has one quality win against number 16 cal poly, and 3 loses to top 10 teams, yet they are #7?
-northeastern one win over arizona and they are at #10
-Voters most likely did not count the Oregon lost yesterday, so they only counted a loss to Colorado, and they drop 2 spots, compared to Duluth not going down for 3 in a row?

all of these teams are ranked over teams like Utah that beat UCSB and Duluth, AND ASU that even if the U of O game was not counted in voting, has beat Utah, A & M and Chapman.

If we are going to take this poll system so seriously, pollsters need to take things more seriously. I like the weighting system that was purposed, because it least it would help voters be consistent. Just because you "really think a team is good, since hell, they have always been good, but they played some bad games," does not mean they are bullet-proof.

[lex]

No computer will solve this problem.

You're right, but a little education on whic factors everyone is considering and should consider would be helpful. Right now, I can't tell what factors pollsters are relying on. And I'm not so sure any of them rely on the same things.

[Rob Graff]

BUt of course if you look at the computer ranking for Laxpower you get the following

Power SOS
Rank Poll Team Rating Rank W L T

1 1 Michigan 84.90 8 7- 0- 0
2 2 Brigham Young 83.09 1 8- 2- 0
3 3 Oregon 81.74 12 11- 2- 0
4 4 Colorado State 81.33 2 7- 2- 0
5 6 Minnesota - Duluth 81.12 37 4- 3- 0
6 22 Boston College 80.41 45 4- 1- 0
7 8 Northeastern 79.63 65 7- 0- 0
8 12 UC Santa Barbara 79.10 9 9- 3- 0
9 21 Simon Fraser 78.05 55 7- 1- 0
10 7 Sonoma State 77.83 13 5- 3- 0
11 10 Arizona 77.50 6 8- 4- 0
12 5 Colorado 77.49 7 7- 1- 0
13 Chapman 77.48 3 6- 4- 0
14 11 Arizona State 76.97 5 6- 2- 0
15 9 Florida State 76.95 36 12- 3- 0
16 18 Georgia 76.92 60 6- 2- 0
17 13 Utah 76.80 11 4- 3- 0
18 19 Michigan State 76.18 21 3- 1- 0
19 14 Florida 75.55 23 8- 1- 0
20 25 Loyola Marymount 74.72 17 6- 4- 0
21 UC Davis 74.59 48 9- 3- 0
22 15 Lindenwood 74.52 30 7- 3- 0
23 Buffalo 74.36 34 3- 2- 0
24 Claremont 74.04 38 8- 3- 0
25 16 Cal Poly - SLO 73.98 20 9- 4- 0

[sohotrightnow]

The Flow, please unveil your Top 25 if you think this poll is so ridiculous...

[Theflow]

The Flow, please unveil your Top 25 if you think this poll is so ridiculous...

I will put one out next poll. That is not even the point. These voters apply for the job and take the responsibility. When you see the following at the bottom of the page, meaning some voted for these teams, it means that maybe more thought should be put into this. Some of these teams are deserving to crack the top 25, and some have never beat a ranked team, and continue to lose to unranked ones. If we had a system of weights to at least use as a reference, or at the very least, pollsters took their, "yeah, but they have always been a great team" bias out of voting, the poll would be a bit more effective.

Illinois (59 pts), Claremont College (17 pts), California Davis (15 pts), Buffalo (14 pts), Connecticut (8 pts), Minnesota (7 pts), California (6 pts), Pittsburgh (6 pts), Southern Methodist University (5 pts), Illinois State University (5 pts), Central Michigan University (3 pts), Oakland University (3 pts), Rhode Island (2 pts), San Diego State University (2 pts), Auburn University (1 pts), New Hampshire (1 pts), California State University - Chico (1 pts),

[CATLAX MAN]

No computer will solve this problem.

Right now, I can't tell what factors pollsters are relying on.

The factors are knowledge, experience & good judgement, something no mathematical computer based system can ever hope to achieve.

[LaxTV_Admin]

The Flow, please unveil your Top 25 if you think this poll is so ridiculous...

I will put one out next poll. That is not even the point. These voters apply for the job and take the responsibility. When you see the following at the bottom of the page, meaning some voted for these teams, it means that maybe more thought should be put into this. Some of these teams are deserving to crack the top 25, and some have never beat a ranked team, and continue to lose to unranked ones. If we had a system of weights to at least use as a reference, or at the very least, pollsters took their, "yeah, but they have always been a great team" bias out of voting, the poll would be a bit more effective.

Illinois (59 pts), Claremont College (17 pts), California Davis (15 pts), Buffalo (14 pts), Connecticut (8 pts), Minnesota (7 pts), California (6 pts), Pittsburgh (6 pts), Southern Methodist University (5 pts), Illinois State University (5 pts), Central Michigan University (3 pts), Oakland University (3 pts), Rhode Island (2 pts), San Diego State University (2 pts), Auburn University (1 pts), New Hampshire (1 pts), California State University - Chico (1 pts),

What poll do you know of that does not have that at the bottom? Isn't that the idea of a poll. Everyone will not agree, but together they will form what seems to be the most appropriate spot for each team?

[Sonny]

I'm sorry, but I will never understand top 15 poll voting with this group of voters.

Insert repeating record here - Look at the point totals, not the poll placement! Some of the teams you are claiming are underranked have gained points since the last poll.

Voters most likely did not count the Oregon lost yesterday, so they only counted a loss to Colorado, and they drop 2 spots, compared to Duluth not going down for 3 in a row?

Are you reading into the minds of all 40 Div. A voters again?

If we are going to take this poll system so seriously, pollsters need to take things more seriously.

Do you have any proof that the pollsters DO NOT take things seriously? Serious question.

[univduke21]

Duluth can lose 3 games in a row since the last poll, and still be at #6

You are correct they lost 3 games. The following three games:

#4 Colorado State L 7-6 @ BYU
#2 BYU L 9-8 @ BYU
#13 Utah L 10-9 @ Utah

The lost three games by a total of 3 goals on the road to the #2, #4, and #13 teams in the nation. They should of only beat Utah, they didn't and thus they moved down. Give them a break, they played a tough schedule and didn't win, but they were in every game and lost again to the #2 and #4 team in the nation by a total of TWO goals. They are where they deserve to be.