Next Div. A Top 25 poll

[steveperry]

In with the new, out with the old...We have a few days to talk about this.

[OAKS]

First Question: Who is #1?

I say Sonoma, since they only lost to CSU, while CSU and Michigan have both lost to BYU, who is ranked lower. Although Michigan's loss was their first MDIA game of the season. Does that give them more leeway?

[NomaBlueCollar]

Its hard to tell who should be first and who should be 2nd. Head to head you have CSU has teh advantage, But a #1 team losing to a #2 team cant be as bad as a #1 team losing to a #6 team, right? This could put Noma back at the top for now. Sonoma travels to BYU on Wednesday (poll day). It'd be nice to have the results of that game a little sooner or the poll a day or two later, as it could help clear things up.

How about BYU? move up, down, or stay the same? The win over CSU was huge, but the Cougs followed it with a loss to Colorado

[CATLAX MAN]

Im pretty sure that the ballots have to be in before Wednesday, so the SSU v. BYU game will not factor into this poll.

BYU should move up, but not nearly as much as they would have if they had also beat Colorado.

I would think that Sonoma should be #1, but I don't think the margin will be that great. Could also understand Michigan being at the top. It's a tossup.

[steveperry]

I agree. I think that Sonoma has earned the number one spot. Tough to place BYU in this poll. I think they move up infront of UCSB (loss to AZ) and in front of UCSD (loss to USD). Then, where do you put Colorado?

[LAXDawg14]

what is the exact date of the next poll coming out?

[steveperry]

This wednesday, 4/19

[NomaBlueCollar]

Wednesday, April 19th

[Sonny]

what is the exact date of the next poll coming out?

This information is linked at the top of the forum:
http://forums.uslia.com/viewtopic.php?t=3536

[Danny Hogan]

both ssu and michi have strong cases for #1. but if the voters thought SSU should be ahead of michigan 2 weeks ago, i don't see them putting UM ahead this week.

[Dan Wishengrad]

So while recent votes were very tough for positions 5-25, at least the top of the poll was easy. Now even the top is a mess!

I agree that 'Noma and Michigan are worthy of consideration for #1, but my vote will probably still go to CSU -- by the shakiest of margins. The Rams had two convincing wins over ranked teams since the last poll before the close loss to a BYU team playing as well as anybody right now. I will have to review some more before casting my ballot, and could change my 1-3 order before I'm through.

But however I ultimately vote (and no matter what the poll looks like when it comes out), this is actually a very exciting time for the MDIA in my opinion. The "elite" teams are no longer head-and-shoulders better than the rest, and we could certainly have some upsets in Plano this year in the tourney. Only Stanford in 2001 has been a true "darkhorse" in the history of the national championships. But in 2006 it seems like any one of four or five teams could win it all, and some high seeds may very well get upset in the first round for really the first time ever.

[NomaBlueCollar]

Its hard to see CSU not dropping at least one spot after the BYU game. Yes Michigan did lose to BYU also, but it was their only MDIA loss of the year to date. BYU beat CSU by 3, but only beat Michigan by 1, very early in the season.

Michigan has been flawless in the MDIA since then. This is the time of the year that a team's true potential begins to peak, right before playoffs. Its crunch time, teams are supposed to be playing their best ball of the year right now, and a divisional loss to a team ranked 5 spots lower has got to have an effect in the polls

[CATLAX MAN]

Then, where do you put Colorado?

In front of BYU.

[NomaBlueCollar]

how far do u have BYU dropping catlaxman?

[steveperry]

As is always said by posters, the last poll is the one that matters. Well, this is the second to last poll, so I think that it relatively important. Since pollsters don't seem to always make their picks based on what has happened since the last poll, here is a breakdown of the season so far for each team. More than anything, spots 10-20 are a real toss up. Since there are a few teams pushing for those at large bids, I think that it is important to try to figure out the important question: Which of the fringe teams could actually go and make an impact at the tournament? I think it is important to look at the scores of some of these games. Some of our higher ranked teams have won all of their ranked games by no more then one goal. A win is a win, but some of the more consistent powerhouse teams such as Michigan consistently win games by more then a couple of goals. At the same time, it is important to look at the very close loses as well.

As always, notice the teams with few or no wins against ranked teams that are in the top 20. We have now seen that even some of the best teams can lose to unranked or much lower ranked teams. I feel like the pollsters have docked some teams much more then others in past polls when this has happened. Since it happened 4 times in the top 20 this last week, maybe their minds will change a bit.

Here is a breakdown of the current top 20. I hope that it helps voters in making your poll decisions:

1. Colorado State
Key wins: #4 UCSB (1g), #2 Sonoma (1g), #18 ASU (9g), #17 Oakland (9g)
Key loses: First one this last weekend, #6 BYU (3 goals)
Beat ranked teams by a total of: 20g
Lost all games by a total of: 3g

2. Sonoma State
Key wins: #18 ASU (9 goals),#5 UCSD (1g), #14 Virginia Tech (3g), #4 UCSB (2g), #7 Oregon (1g), #10 Cal Poly (5g),
Key loses: #1 CSU (1g)
Beat ranked teams by a total of:21g
Lost all games by a total of: 1g

3. Michigan
Key wins:#5 UCSD (5g), #4 UCSB (3g), #11 Arizona (11g), #12 Lindenwood (4g), #15 Duluth (9g), #17 Oakland (8g)
Key loses: #6 BYU (2g)
Beat ranked teams by a total of: 40g
Lost all games by a total of: 2g

4. Univ. of California, Santa Barbara
Key wins: #20 Chapman (1g),#10 Cal Poly (4g), #6 BYU (1g), #18 ASU (3g), #22 UCLA (4g)
Key loses: #1 CSU (1g), #3 Michigan (3g), #5 UCSD (1g),#2 Sonoma (2g), #11 Arizona (3g)
Beat ranked teams by a total of: 12g
Lost all games by a total of: 10g

5. Univ. of California, San Diego
Key wins: #22 UCLA (6g), #10 Cal Poly (5g), #14 Virginia Tech (10g),#4 UCSB (1g), #23 Texas Tech (11g), #20 Chapman (1g), #11 Arizona (1g)
Key loses: #3 Michigan (5g), #2 Sonoma (1g), #18 ASU (1g), UNRANKED San Diego (1g)
Beat ranked teams by a total of: 35g
Lost all games by a total of: 8g

6. Brigham Young University
Key wins: #3 Michigan (1g), #9 Florida State (3g), #16 Georgia Tech (6g), #7 Oregon (8g), #1 CSU (3g)
Key loses:#4 UCSB (1g), #10 Cal Poly (2g), #11 Arizona (2g), #8 Colorado (2g)
Beat ranked teams by a total of: 21g
Lost all games by a total of: 7g

7. Oregon -
Key wins: #25 Texas (4g), #15 Duluth (9g)
Key loses: #2 Sonoma (1g), #10 Cal Poly (1g), #6 BYU (8g)
Beat ranked teams by a total of: 13g
Lost all games by a total of: 10g

8. Colorado -
Key wins: #25 Texas (3g), #22 Texas Tech (7g), #18 ASU (2g), #13 Utah (3g), #17 Oakland (4g), #6 BYU (2g)
Key loses: #4 UCSB (8g)
Beat ranked teams by a total of: 21g
Lost all games by a total of: 8g

9. Florida State
Key wins: #16 Georgia Tech (3g), #21 Michigan State (6g), #14 Virginia Tech (1g), #20 Chapman (2g)
Key loses: #6 BYU (3g)
Beat ranked teams by a total of:12g
Lost all games by a total of: 3g

10. Cal Poly SLO -
Key wins: #6 BYU (2g), #20 Chapman (4g), #7 Oregon (1g)
Key loses: #4 UCSB (4g), #5 UCSD (5g), #13 Utah (1g), #15 Duluth (1g), #2 Sonoma (5g)
Beat ranked teams by a total of:7g
Lost all games by a total of: 16g

11. Arizona
Key wins: #6 BYU (2g), #22 UCLA (3g), #12 Lindenwood (3g), #4UCSB (3g), #18 ASU (5g)
Key loses: #13 Utah (1g), #20 Chapman (8g), #3 Michigan (11g), #5 UCSD (1g)
Beat ranked teams by a total of:16g
Lost all games by a total of: 21g

12. Lindenwood University
Key wins: #19 Northeastern (5g), #17 Oakland (by 4g), #24 Illinois (2g)
Key loses: #3 Michigan (4g), #11 Arizona (3g)
Beat ranked teams by a total of: 11g
Lost all games by a total of: 7g

**13. Utah -
Key wins: #11 Arizona (1g), #8 Cal Poly (1g)
Key loses: UNRANKED Chico State (1g), #20 Chapman (7g), #15 Duluth (1g), #8 Colorado (3g), #1 CSU (10g)
Beat ranked teams by a total of:2g
Lost all games by a total of: 22g

**14. Virginia Tech
Key wins: NONE
Key loses: #2 Sonoma (3g), #5 UCSD (10g), #9 FSU (1g)
Beat ranked teams by a total of: NONE
Lost all games by a total of: 14g

**15. Minnesota-Duluth
Key wins: #13 Utah (1g), #10 Cal Poly (1g)
Key loses: #7 Oregon (9g), #3 Michigan (9g), #17 Oakland (6g),
Beat ranked teams by a total of: 2g
Lost all games by a total of: 24g

**16. Georgia Tech
Key wins: #21 Michigan State (4g),
Key loses: #9 Florida State (3g), #6 BYU (6g), UNRANKED North Carolina State (1g), UNRANKED Georgia (5g)
Beat ranked teams by a total of:4g
Lost all games by a total of: 15g

17. Oakland University
Key wins: #15 Duluth (6g), #21 Michigan State (10g)
Key loses: #19 Northeastern (5g), #12 Lindenwood (4g), #1 CSU (9g), #8 Colorado (4g), #3 Michigan (8g)
Beat ranked teams by a total of: 16g
Lost all games by a total of: 30g

**18. Arizona State
Key wins: #20 Chapman (1g), #21 Michigan State (1g), #4 UCSD (1g)
Key loses: UNRANKED SFU (1g), #2 Sonoma (9g), #1 CSU (9g), #8 Colorado (2g), #4 UCSB (3g), #11 Arizona (5g)
Beat ranked teams by a total of: 3g
Lost all games by a total of: 28g

**19. Northeastern University
Key wins: #17 Oakland (5g)
Key loses: #12 Lindenwood (5g), UNRANKED Connecticut (1g)
Beat ranked teams by a total of: 5g
Lost all games by a total of: 6g

**20. Chapman University
Key wins: #13 Utah (7g), #11 Arizona (8g), #21 Michigan State (5g), #23 Texas Tech (7g)
Key loses: #4 UCSB (1g), #10 Cal Poly (4g), #22 UCLA (8g), #18 ASU (1g), #5 UCSD (1g), UNRANKED LMU (1g), #9 FSU (2g)
Beat ranked teams by a total of: 27g
Lost all games by a total of: 18g

** I have highlighted 7 teams: Utah, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Oakland, ASU, Chapman. The reason is that these are most likely the 7 teams that will compete for the last at large bid (Assuming teams win that our supposed to, and Colorado, BYU, UCSB, UCSD, Cal Poly and Arizona all go, assuming in the WCLL that Sonoma wins. Also, Northeastern is on the list if they have another meltdown to Uconn)

Some quick comparisons between the 7 teams:

Utah, Chapman, Georgia Tech(2 times since last poll) , Northeastern and ASU have all lost to an unranked team this year

ASU beat Chapman by 1 goal and Chapman Beat Utah by 7 goals. Northeastern beat Oakland by 5 goals.

Virginia Tech is the only team in top 20 that HAS NOT BEAT ONE RANKED TEAM.

Utah has beat 2 ranked teams (#11 and #10) by a total of 2 goals. They have lost to 2 teams in the top 10 by a total of 13 goals. *They have a chance to lose or win against two more top 10 teams this week.

Georgia Tech has beat 1 ranked team (#21) by a total of 4 goals. They have lost to two teams in the top 10 by a total of 9 goals.

Oakland has beat 2 ranked teams (#15 and #21) by a total of 16 goals. They have lost to three top 10 teams by a total of 21 goals.

ASU has beat 3 ranked teams (#20, #21, #4) by a total of 3 goals. They have lost to 4 top 10 teams by a total of 23 goals.

Northeastern has beat 1 ranked team (#17) by 5 goals. They have not played a top 10 team.

Chapman has beat 4 ranked teams (#11, #13, #21 and #23) by a total of 27 goals. They have lost to 4 top 10 teams by a total of 8 goals.

As you can see, there are some teams in this grouping that have done little to show that they can beat or even play close games against top ranked teams. This year is such a toss up, because all of these teams have loses that they would rather not have. The important thing to think of when placing these 7 teams in this poll should be:

Here’s your topic, which of these teams is more likely to do some damage against top ranked teams in the tournament? Discuss…