4th Div A Poll out April 5th...

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Postby sohotrightnow on Mon Apr 03, 2006 1:29 pm

It did matter. V Tech got blown out by UCSD by 10 goals just 3 days after they lost to Sonoma by 3 goals. Sonoma w/Pringle beat UCSD a week earlier by one goal, so yes, it did make a difference.
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Postby Dan Wishengrad on Mon Apr 03, 2006 1:53 pm

RopeNoRope wrote:How do people think the ASU win over UCSD will effect the rankings of both teams. How far will ASU move up? How far will UCSD drop?


Heck if i know! This will be another tough ballot to cast. I think ASU deserves to move up a few spots for sure. I also ranked Simon Fraser at the bottom of my ballot last time, and while many will undoubtedly argue the Clansmen don't deserve this ranking, I think ASU's win over UCSD helps demonstrate that SFU is in the mix of that big group of teams at 20-30.

SFU's losses have been by one goal to #4 Oregon, two on the long road-trip at ranked 'Zona and Utah, and by one to unranked ( and underrated) OSU on the second day of a back-to-back after the tough loss to the Ducks. I am NOT claiming that Simon Fraser is a great team worthy of a high ranking -- but only that they should garner maybe a little more consideration of a 24 or 25 vote. Beating ASU in Tempe was a quality win...

I have seen Oregon, Cal-Poly, Utah and Minnesota-Duluth so far this year. SFU is pretty close to these teams in talent, in my opinion.
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Postby cardylax22 on Mon Apr 03, 2006 2:15 pm

ASU legitamately should be in the top 15. Perhaps having the toughest schedule in the whole uslia would create a few losses. They took down UCSD yesterday and almost took out University of Colorado prior. A healthy ASU is top 15 lock without question!
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Postby oaklandlax on Mon Apr 03, 2006 2:56 pm

See laxpower for strenght of schedule of teams
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Postby steveperry on Mon Apr 03, 2006 4:19 pm

Well, here it is, complete with some reasoning for each spot. Nothing perfect, but I put in a great deal of research. Did some comparative research to D1 lax polls this year. There have been a few teams like Navy for example, that have lost to unranked teams, but have not fallen very far in the polls. Quality of wins sometimes overpowers some bad loses.

1. Colorado State - Hard to argue against this ranking. Let's see how they do in their upcoming league games.

2. Sonoma State -Only USLIA loss by one to CSU. Wins include UCSD, Virginia Tech, UCSB. Beat Oregon and Cal Poly since last poll.

3. Michigan - Only USLIA loss this year to BYU. Wins include UCSD and UCSB. Beat Arizona, Lindenwood and Duluth since last poll. I really wish that they were playing Sonoma and Colorado State in the regular season this year, because I think that they could take both teams.

4. Univ. of California, Santa Barbara - wins this year include Chapman, Cal Poly, and BYU. Loss to USCD was by 1 in ovetime. Since last poll, lost close game to Sonoma and beat Colorado by 8. A deserving top 5 team.

5. Univ. of California, San Diego - Wins this year include UCLA, Cal Poly, 10 goal win against Virginia Tech, one goal win against UCSB and Chapman. Since last poll, beat Arizona by 1 and then lost to ASU by 1 goal the next day. This team has still won more ranked games then almost any other team, and like many top teams, has now had their first let down to a much lower ranked team. This is not something that should throw them behind teams of lesser achievement.

6. Colorado - Greatly untested until now, key wins include University of Texas and Texas Tech. Since the last poll, they beat ASU (a win that seems to carry more merit now), Div III Whittier (the first USLIA team to do that this year), but then lost by 8 goals to UCSB. I put them here because a win against Whittier goes a long way when BYU, Colorado State, and Michigan could not poll off that feat. This win should still hold ground, and to me, is like beating a top ten USLIA team. Loss to team ranked above them is not a horrible thing. I think that this is a very solid team that will be tested in the next two weeks with games against Utah, Oakland, BYU and CSU. I think they have a chance to win any of those games.

7. Oregon - The recently defeated, formerly undefeated Oregon ducks. Here is a team from a weak league that desperately needed to prove that they can take down top 10 competition. Key wins include Texas, Duluth and Chico State, all teams out of the top 12. Since the last poll, they lost a one goal game to both Sonoma and Cal Poly, both of which sound like they could have gone either way. Loss to much lower ranked Cal Poly hurts the most, but in no way should take them out of the top 8. With only one real test left against BYU, Oregon has to prove that they are a top 10 team. Yet, they have shown that they are still a team that can win most of the games that they should win, something that even the best teams don't always do. I feel that this team is very talented, but it would have been in their interested to schedule more top ranked games next year to really prove that they are one of the top teams in the country. Good for them that they will more then likely win their league for an AQ.

8. Brigham Young University - The team with the arguably the biggest roller-coaster of a season so far this year (Chapman may come in second here). Key wins are against Michigan, Florida State and Georgia Tech. Loses are to UCSB, Cal Poly, Whittier, Arizona and Wesleyan University. Since the last poll, they beat Colorado college. I always feel like BYU gets more support the polls then they might deserve, even when they lose to someone ranked well below them at the time (Cal Poly and Arizona), BUT, they have proven that they can take down top 10 teams like Michigan and FSU. Huge tests coming up when they play Oregon, SCU, Colorado, Sonoma and Utah. Wins against those team will shut critics up about giving them an at large bid to Dallas. But, losing to the majority of those teams would leave them a .500 USLIA team.

9. Florida State - A team that will most likely win their AQ, they have key wins against Georgia Tech and Michigan State. Only USLIA loss was a 3 goal game against BYU. Since the last poll, one goal win against over-ranked Virginia Tech. This is a good spot of them right now with one loss, but losing to Chapman next week could really bump them back.

10. Cal Poly SLO - Wins this year include Chapman, BYU, and Chico State. Key loses before the last poll to lower ranked Utah and Duluth some how pushed them up a spot. Since the last poll, they pulled off a 1 goal win over a highly ranked Oregon (the day after Oregon lost to Sonoma by 1 goal) and then lost to Sonoma the next day. I put them here because of 2 wins over top 10 teams, something that even some of the top 10 teams have not yet done (number 11 Arizona is a similar situation). Poly does not have any more big games during the season, so they will have to prove this ranking in the WCLL playoffs.

11. Arizona - Key wins include BYU and UCLA. Key loses are a 1 goal loss to Utah (at the end of a 3 game trip) and an 8 goal beating by Chapman. The Utah loss seems like it could be a fluke, but the pounding from Chapman is hard for this team to swallow. Since the last poll, they were destroyed by Michigan by 11 goals, beat an over-ranked, but still number 10 Lindenwood, and lost by one to UCSD. A big win against UCSB would greatly help them, along with a W over ASU. As of right now, their big wins are split between loses to sometimes lesser ranked teams. This ranking could greatly change if they lose to UCSB, ASU or both, then if Chapman beats FSU, and if Utah wins any of the games against their four remaining top 10 challengers.

12. Utah - A team that squeaks by 1 goal wins against Arizona (when they were at the end of a 3 game trip), and against Cal Poly. Otherwise, this is a team that lost by 1 to the bottom barrel of the top 25, Chico State, lost badly to Chapman (7 goals), and lost by one to Duluth (granted it was the day after their Cal Poly game). But, as they say, a win is a win, and Arizona and Poly are well ranked. This team has a very hard schedule, the worst of it yet to come. Colorado, CSU, BYU and Sonoma will decide the fate of this team.

13. Minnesota-Duluth - key wins are against Utah and Cal Poly. Key loses include a 9 goal beating by Oregon, and since the last poll, a 9 goal loss to Michigan and a 6 goal loss to a questionable Oakland. 2 one goal wins against 13-15 ranked teams, and then loses to top 10 and a #18 team does not propel this team too far forward. They should win their AQ.

14. Lindenwood University - In my opinion, one of the most over-ranked teams this entire year. Key wins are against Northeastern and Oakland, both not in the top 16. Since the last poll, they have 2 loses against teams in the top 15. They have done very little to prove that they should be any higher then this ranking. But, they are good at beating the teams in their league. They will most likely win an AQ to the tournament without proving that they can beat any of the teams that will probably be at the tournament.

15. Arizona State - Another tough one. Key wins are against Chapman and Michigan State by 1. Key loses are to an unranked SFU and a 9 goal loss to Sonoma. Only a one goal win over Santa Clara is also confusing. Since the last poll, they lost to CSU by 9, Colorado by 2, and beat UCSD by 1 the day after SD played AZ to a one goal game. UCSD is a huge win, but they have not shown that they can win the big games by more then 1 goal in the cast of Chapman and UCSD. I am not sure what happened in the UCSD game, but I assume it is what happened in the Chapman game. When you come out flat against a very aggressive team like ASU, they can chip away at you. But, a win is a win. This is a conditional ranking dependent on whether or not they can take down UCSB or Arizona in the next two weeks.

16. Oakland University - No key wins before last poll. early loses to ranked teams Northeastern and Lindenwood. Now they go and beat Duluth by 6. I think this moves them up a few spots, but they have not proven anything else. A good game against CSU, Colorado, Michigan State or Michigan would help their cause.

17. Chapman University - This one is pretty tough. Key wins include Chico State (9 goals), Utah (7 goals), Arizona (8 goals), Michigan State (by 5), and Texas Tech (7 goals). Key loses are to Cal Poly, UCLA, ASU by 1, UCSB by 1, UCSD by 1 are questionable. They were under-ranked in the last poll after going 4-1 in a week, beating 3 ranked teams and losing to the number 5 team by one goal. Now, they have gone 2-1 since the last poll, losing to LMU after a win the night before. Their earlier one goal loss to ASU doesn't seem as bad now that they also beat UCSD by 1. This seems to be a team that can beat anyone or lose to anyone depending on which Chapman takes the field. Key loses hurt, but they are one of the few teams with commanding wins against 5 ranked teams. I still want to see what they can do in Florida next week. Maybe their team of freshmen starters will finally decide to grow up. Until then, I think this is a good spot for them. They have still proven themselves a better matched team then similarly ranked teams, such as Northeastern, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. Putting them behind Oakland was even a bit tough to do.

18. Northeastern University - Only two ranked teams in their schedule. They lost to Lindenwood and they beat Oakland a while ago. Very week league that they will most likely win for another AQ outside of the top 16.

19. Virginia Tech - In my opinion, one of the most over-ranked teams this year. This is not saying that they are a bad team, because they are not. BUT, a team that only plays a 12 game schedule, including 3 games against ranked teams, all 3 of which they lost, does not deserve to be in the top 16. This is not a National Tournament team this year. They will most likely win their league games, and play FSU in the league championships. Their one goal game with FSU could be proven a fluke if FSU pounds them, but a win for V tech would give them the AQ and would shut up some critics. Until then, this is a good spot for them.

20. Georgia Tech - Key win against Michigan State. Loses to Florida State and BYU mean that they were 1/3 against ranked teams. Yet, they still win the games that they should in a fairly weak conference. This is a good spot for them.

21. Michigan State - Key win against UCLA. Loses include 4 goal to Georgia Tech, 6 goal loss to FSU, 1 goal loss to ASU, and 5 goal loss to Chapman. 2 ranked games left against Oakland and Michigan.

22. UCLA - Only big win was an 8 goal victory over a Chapman team that lost to Cal Poly the night before. Loses are against UCSD, Michigan State, and Arizona. They have not played any games since the last poll, and only have one more big test this year against UCSB (maybe against LMU if they come out flat).

23. Texas - Another team that has had trouble winning out of league games this year. Win against Chico State is only key win. Losses to Oregon and Oregon State does not help their case to move up. Could be the only AUTOBID this year that is not even in the top 20.

24. Texas Tech - Big wins have only been against unranked league opponents. Loses have been to every ranked team they have played. Like Virginia Tech, they have one the division games that they need to win, but cannot beat ranked teams.

25. Chico State - Key win is against Utah by 1 goal. Loses are to Chapman by 9, Poly by 5, Texas by 5, Oregon by 6, Sonoma by 12. Since the last poll, they lost to a poor Cal team by 5, but beat a decent Oregon State. This is a good spot for them to be.
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Postby Bluevelvet on Mon Apr 03, 2006 4:36 pm

Nice job- Joker. Seems well researched and well reasoned.
I would place Oregon at #6; BYU at #7 and Colorado at #8 because Oregon's losses were close and one was in the mud to SSU. BYU has kept on winning since their rocky start despite 3 starters out for the year with torn ACL's. Colorado's game with D3 Whittier does not count and their loss to UCSB was a blow out.
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Postby steveperry on Mon Apr 03, 2006 5:13 pm

Bluevelvet wrote:Nice job- Joker. Seems well researched and well reasoned.
I would place Oregon at #6; BYU at #7 and Colorado at #8 because Oregon's losses were close and one was in the mud to SSU. BYU has kept on winning since their rocky start despite 3 starters out for the year with torn ACL's. Colorado's game with D3 Whittier does not count and their loss to UCSB was a blow out.


That was how I had it in my original draft. I can certainly see it that way. Despite having two close games, Oregon just throws me off with that loss to Poly. Back to back games like that is very tough.

BYU is certainly making a comeback, and I am very curious to how the league games will go.

I had Colorado there mainly because they were beat by a team ranked above them, unlike Oregon on day two. That win against Whittier does not count, but it shows these boys can play.
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Postby steveperry on Tue Apr 04, 2006 5:28 pm

I think this is the first time that nobody has been all over my posts on this forum. Sonny, I thought you would be all over me by now?

I would make a couple changes to my top 25, putting Oregon at 6, BYU 7, and Colorado at 8. I may also think to move Chapman up to 16 or so. Doing more research into other teams, and despite Chapman's recent LMU loss and past UCLA loss, they have beat more ranked teams this year (not just beat, but always by more than 5 goals), then most teams in the country. Hard one to place.

Good luck to all in your voting tonight!
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Postby RopeNoRope on Tue Apr 04, 2006 6:04 pm

Based on Joker's Poll I think ASU should be bumped a bit higher based on their win over UCSD, or UCSD should be droped more.
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Postby Sonny on Tue Apr 04, 2006 6:50 pm

TheJoker wrote:I think this is the first time that nobody has been all over my posts on this forum. Sonny, I thought you would be all over me by now?


No, just stating the fact that is easy to play Monday Morning Quarterback if you are a non-voter. It's also easy to say that Team X shouldn't be at Position Y in the poll.

TheJoker wrote:Good luck to all in your voting tonight!


Indeed.
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Postby steveperry on Tue Apr 04, 2006 8:20 pm

No, just stating the fact that is easy to play Monday Morning Quarterback if you are a non-voter. It's also easy to say that Team X shouldn't be at Position Y in the poll.


It's a lot easier when you have good reasoning behind it. I would stand behind my voting if I was a voter, so I am not sure if I understand the critique. After seeing how much research it takes to be confident in one's picks (nothing perfect of course), I hope that the actual voters do the same.
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Postby LA Lax06 on Tue Apr 04, 2006 9:11 pm

TheJoker wrote:
23. Texas - Another team that has had trouble winning out of league games this year. Win against Chico State is only key win. Losses to Oregon and Oregon State does not help their case to move up. Could be the only AUTOBID this year that is not even in the top 20.

24. Texas Tech - Big wins have only been against unranked league opponents. Loses have been to every ranked team they have played. Like Virginia Tech, they have one the division games that they need to win, but cannot beat ranked teams.

25. Chico State - Key win is against Utah by 1 goal. Loses are to Chapman by 9, Poly by 5, Texas by 5, Oregon by 6, Sonoma by 12. Since the last poll, they lost to a poor Cal team by 5, but beat a decent Oregon State. This is a good spot for them to be.



I could be a little biased about this, but what about LMU???

Chico- (6-6) Losses against Cal (5 goals), Chapman (9 goals), and Texas (5 goals). and a one goal win over Stanford. The only solid wins would be the 1 goal win over Utah early in the season and a 5 goal win over OSU.

LMU- (6-7) Started off slow, as any young team can do, losing to 5 ranked opponents: ASU, UCSD, UCSB, Mich St., and AZ. I was at the Mich State and Arizona games, and the score does not do them justice. LMU was winning and tied at numerous points in both games until late, where they just couldnt hang on. Their only losses to non- ranked opponents are Davis early in the season and to Cal (by 5- same as Chico). However, in the last month they have been on a hot streak. Winning 5 of their last 6 and the last 4. (including OSU, Minnesota and Chapman). Not to mention, if they win their next 2 (USC and UCLA) they have a good shot at playoffs.

...just somehting to think about....
Last edited by LA Lax06 on Tue Apr 04, 2006 9:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Sonny on Tue Apr 04, 2006 9:18 pm

TheJoker wrote:
No, just stating the fact that is easy to play Monday Morning Quarterback if you are a non-voter. It's also easy to say that Team X shouldn't be at Position Y in the poll.


It's a lot easier when you have good reasoning behind it. I would stand behind my voting if I was a voter, so I am not sure if I understand the critique. After seeing how much research it takes to be confident in one's picks (nothing perfect of course), I hope that the actual voters do the same.


Not to pick on you Joker.... but this is the first time I've seen you publically put show any detailed "reasoning" behind your thoughts. When you first came on the message board a few weeks ago --- you came right out of the chute blasting the poll results stating (under no uncertain terms) that certain teams shouldn't be in the Top 20.

Like I said it's really easy to play Monday Morning QB. Obviously, your idea of "good reasoning" might be different then some of the voters. And I've yet to see any voter not willing to stand by their results.
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Postby WaterBoy on Tue Apr 04, 2006 11:06 pm

I'll agree with Sonny on this one- I certainly felt that some of your original posts were blunt and unsupported almost to the point of being inflamatory.

That being said, I think your 25 shows some insight and actual research, and when people are willing to make posts that show that they've looked into issues, they are more likely to be taken seriously not only in that post, but in the subsequent posts they make.

Good job on your 25- it's certainly a vast improvement over

Where that is true, it is a real cop out for doing shotty work.
(In reference to poll voters placing teams in certain rankings).
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Postby Friendsofprogram on Tue Apr 04, 2006 11:18 pm

Sonny,

Not that i agree with Joker or his reasoning. However, the fact that he is a new poster or new member to the board has nothing to do with what he posted. I encourage people to post as long as they do so within the rules. I like this site because it allows people to share their thoughts. This forum allows people to share information and state their position on certain threads. As far as i am concerned, this only makes the site more valuable.
I encourage all new members to openly state their position. I may not agree with it, or even like it, but its nice to try and understands other posters positions. So, i welcome new posters and new members with open arms.
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