Third Div. A Poll due Wed, March 22nd...

[Timbalaned]

I am bored and don't want to study for finals, so I thought I would start this topic up. With all this craziness going on, I was wondering what people thought the next poll might look like.

[benji]

Pollsters are gonna have an interesting time with this one.

finals already?

[Dan Wishengrad]

Geez, I have no idea how to even rank the three teams that I watched play this weekend, Timbalaned! Minnesota-Duluth has to move up, even given their bad loss to your Ducks since the last poll, on the strength of their HIT performance. But I don't see myself dropping Utah (win over Poly; loss to UMD) much, if at all. Then there is a strong Cal-Poly team which simply destroyed us but dropped two overtime games to lower-ranked opponents. I have to lower the Mustangs in my rankings, but I'm not sure how much I will or should lower them. They were the best team we played this year, and their two losses by two goals combined doesn't change my opinion of them -- but it sure gives me a "pollster's headache".

So basically beyond CSU at #1 and 'Noma at #2 (which has been my ranking since the pre-season), I will have to study alot of results. Then I'll cast about 30-40 draft versions on paper -- all of which are sure to be different -- and finally dig out the old dartboard again for help!

[teslax14]

finals already?

Yes. Because we are odd here at the U of O we are on trimesters so this is the end of our term before we go on spring break

[laxcd1]

Laxpower seems to be fairly accurate at this point. Other than the bullets listed below, I basically agree with the formula. The bottom line is that this is an incredible resource for the pollsters. #6-13 are very tough to decipher, and hopefully the pollsters are using this resource to assist them with the upcoming poll. Quality win factor is also a very interesting statistic that laxpower displays. www.laxpower.com

-Arizona seems 2-4 places high (loss to Utah, Chapman)
**Time will tell as they have plenty of opportunities with the schedule
-Cal Poly will drop when their losses are entered (Utah, UMD), but I believe they are a very strong team who should definitely be in Dallas assuming they recover and finish strong
-Duluth will move up when the two very impressive wins from this weekend are entered (Utah, Cal Poly)
-Utah should also move up a spot or two in my mind. They had a tough start, but they have obviously come together, and the ranking is indicitave of the way they are currently playing
-Chapman seems 1-3 spots high, but they have won 4 of 5 since the last poll, with the only loss coming in overtime to UCSD
-V Tech and Northeastern are each a few slots to high in mind, but there is obviously plenty of time left for them to make their case


I am excited to hear how other people feel about this "BCS Formula." To me, it gives a very good indication of how team's are playing at this particular point.

Rank Poll Team Rating Rank W L T

1 2 Colorado State 89.90 13 4- 2- 0
2 1 Sonoma State 87.59 3 5- 1- 0
3 3 Michigan 87.13 8 3- 3- 0
4 8 UC San Diego 85.05 5 8- 2- 0
5 14 Cal Poly San Luis Obispo 84.16 9 6- 2- 0
6 6 Oregon 83.67 14 10- 0- 0
7 5 UC Santa Barbara 83.22 2 5- 3- 0
8 9 Brigham Young 83.18 1 4- 5- 0
9 12 Arizona 82.65 7 5- 2- 0
10 20 Chapman 82.17 10 7- 5- 0
11 4 Florida State 81.97 29 8- 3- 0
12 7 Colorado 81.94 4 5- 0- 0
13 11 Virginia Tech 81.84 32 3- 2- 0
14 15 Northeastern 81.78 73 2- 1- 0
15 18 Minnesota - Duluth 81.05 19 5- 1- 0
16 16 Utah 80.82 6 5- 3- 0
17 19 Chico State 80.13 17 5- 3- 0
18 10 Lindenwood 79.75 42 6- 0- 0
19 25 UCLA 79.51 25 8- 3- 0
20 21 Michigan State 79.34 24 3- 4- 0
21 17 Oakland 79.28 15 4- 2- 0
22 23 Arizona State 79.25 11 6- 2- 0
23 Simon Fraser 78.83 48 5- 4- 0
24 22 Texas Tech 78.36 49 5- 3- 0
25 Texas 78.22 59 8- 3- 0
26 Oregon State 78.03 28 7- 2- 0
27 Illinois 77.69 70 2- 1- 0
28 Indiana 77.46 57 5- 2- 0
29 Stanford 77.37 16 2- 5- 0
30 UC Davis 77.18 36 6- 3- 0

[CATLAX MAN]

Laxpower ratings are generally not worth the piece of paper they are written on, IMO. Here is Exhibit A from their final rankings in 2004 taken after the National tourney had been played:

Rank Poll Team Rating Rank W L T

1 2 Colorado State 84.90 6 24- 2- 0
2 3 Brigham Young 81.93 3 13- 6- 0
3 1 UC Santa Barbara 81.71 1 24- 1- 0
4 7 Colorado 79.52 13 14- 6- 0
5 4 Sonoma State 79.17 4 17- 4- 0

Now everyone knows how that season turned out. UCSB beat CSU and BYU twice that year (once in the reguar season and once in the National Tourney) and won the National championship, but somehow managed to finish 3rd in the final polls on Laxpower. Do you need more evidence than this that their mathematical formulas do not produce the right results?

[WaterBoy]

As a specific "let's let laxpower take over instead of polls," I would agree with CATLAX. I use laxpower personally because I think it's a tremendous way to see the games that each team has played and what games they have remaining.

It's also helpful in my mind for the teams that are looking to move in the polls- as an example cal poly- who probably does not belong in fifth place, but when mathematical anomalies like that happen, it will cause people to look closer into why the math-driven ranking system has them that high.

You can also get other helpful information from the site- I think the quality win factor (qwf) and the home field advantage (hfa) are useful for looking at where and who a team will be playing.

I also feel that so far this year, it's fairly close to accurate already. Obviously there are some exceptions, and there will continue to be until more games are played, but I think there has to be some satisfaction knowing that the pollsters pick something close to the mathematical ranking.

[Timbalaned]

how'd the topic title change? cause I sure didn't do that, and that wasn't what i called it

[Sonny]

how'd the topic title change? cause I sure didn't do that, and that wasn't what i called it

I changed it as it wasn't descriptive enough and everyone (& their brother) were going to talk about this anyway.

[x1dschm]

What about UCSD? They are very quietly taking out oppenent after opponent. UCSB, Va Tech, Texas Tech, and Chapman. How far up do they move?

[DG]

Laxpower ratings are generally not worth the piece of paper they are written on, IMO. Here is Exhibit A from their final rankings in 2004 taken after the National tourney had been played:

Rank Poll Team Rating Rank W L T

1 2 Colorado State 84.90 6 24- 2- 0
2 3 Brigham Young 81.93 3 13- 6- 0
3 1 UC Santa Barbara 81.71 1 24- 1- 0
4 7 Colorado 79.52 13 14- 6- 0
5 4 Sonoma State 79.17 4 17- 4- 0

Now everyone knows how that season turned out. UCSB beat CSU and BYU twice that year (once in the reguar season and once in the National Tourney) and won the National championship, but somehow managed to finish 3rd in the final polls on Laxpower. Do you need more evidence than this that their mathematical formulas do not produce the right results?

The problem with Laxpower is that it takes all games into consideration, including games vs. DII or DIII opponents. BYU being ranked over UCSB in this case is purely a function of their win vs. Whittier being factored in. This is also why Laxpower should NOT have anything to do with MDIA seedings or anything else.

DG

[DG]

What about UCSD? They are very quietly taking out oppenent after opponent. UCSB, Va Tech, Texas Tech, and Chapman. How far up do they move?

They will probably move up 1-2 spots. One thing I find very interesting is that they play their entire schedule (except for 3 games) in San Diego. I know those aren't all home games, but it would be interesting to see how they would do on the road in a hostile environment. We'll see when they go to AZ, and also in Plano.

DG

[Rob Graff]

One other laxpower problem - I just noticed that they don't have the UMD full schedule listed. Not sure if other schools have this problem.

My Bass Ale stash and I are getting very closely acquainted for the purposes of completing this poll...

[mholtz]

I never trust laxpower.

We were 35th last year ranked behind 3 teams we had beat when we were 10-0 to start the season...

the season before we were in the top 20 when we were 3-7.

This year it has us behind UCLA who we beat... then again, they beat chapman who beat us.

I'm with Rob on this one. A case of beer, and dartboard will be about what I can do with this poll

[gordie]

This should start some talk

1 Colorado State
2. Sonoma State
3. Oregon
4. Lindenwood
5. Michigan
6.UCSD
7. UCSB
8. BYU
9. Florida State
10. Georgia Tech
11. Colorado
12. Duluth
13. Virginia Tech
14. Utah
15. Arizona
16. Northeastern
17. Cal Poly
18. Arizona State
19. Chapman
20. Michigan State
21. Illinois
22. Oakland
23. Texas
24. UCLA
25. Chico