Report scores, discuss games WCLL week 8

[scoot88]

Chapman 16

N. Texas 5

[scoot88]

I don't see how they are overrated. What are they ranked, 19th? Can you honestly name a team ranked below them that deserves to be ranked above them? They had the ball for approximately 5 minutes against Texas and played atrocious. Most teams play a bad game every year and perhaps they will learn from that loss...maybe they won't. They beat Utah, and although Utah is playing much better right now, you cannot dismiss the fact that Chico beat them on a neutral field.

"Can you honestly name a team ranked below them that deserves to be ranked above them?:

Michigan State
ASU
UCLA
Chapman

I saw Chico beat Utah and I still think Utah is the better team.

[RopeNoRope]

I don't see how they are overrated. What are they ranked, 19th? Can you honestly name a team ranked below them that deserves to be ranked above them? They had the ball for approximately 5 minutes against Texas and played atrocious. Most teams play a bad game every year and perhaps they will learn from that loss...maybe they won't. They beat Utah, and although Utah is playing much better right now, you cannot dismiss the fact that Chico beat them on a neutral field

ASU and Chapman both have claims not only to be ranked above Chico, but to also be ranked much higher in the polls.

[sohotrightnow]

Much higher? Perhaps you forgot Chapman got blown out by UCLA and ASU beat Santa Clara by 1 goal!!! I have no association with Chico but find it odd that other teams are allowed to have bad games, yet Chico plays bad once or twice and everybody thinks they deserve to be dropped significantly.

I saw Chico beat Utah and I still think Utah is the better team.[/code]

I thought that BYU was better then Florida State last year and probably would have beat them 99 times out of 100, but they lost.

[RopeNoRope]

ASU's close win over Santa Clara can be blaimed on the the fact that 7 starters, including the entire D-fence was not playing. If they truley want to make a push in the polls they will have their oppurtunity the rest of the season as they play CSU, Colorado, UCSD, UCSB and Arizona. That is one tough schedule to end the year.

Chapmans ups and downs can be blamed on their youth and inexperience. I still think they are a much better team than what the polls have them slated as.

[Bluevelvet]

Why would a team go into a WCLL game without 7 of 10 starters. I find that hard to believe. ASU will probably finish 7-7.
Chapman is 3rd of four teams in the WCLL LA division with 2 losses out of 3 games. Barring a miracle, they will not make the first round of the WCLL playoffs. Talented but inconsistent.
MSU is 3-4
UCLA will probably make the WCLL LA division playoffs but their wins are against B teams and lesser competition. They have not beaten a ranked team except for their 16-8 win against Chapman.
I really don't like Chico lacrosse because of their fans and some incidents in the past few years, but Chico is as good as any of these teams.

[RopeNoRope]

Why would a team go into a WCLL game without 7 of 10 starters. I find that hard to believe

I'm just stating the facts based on the Game Report:

http://www.uslmdia.org/game.cfm?conferenceid=6&divisionid=1&gameid=1183


Bluevelvet, better check your math because ASU only plays 13 games. Unless, you were assuming a playoff loss. In that case you are all good.

[WaterBoy]

Ok, then let's take an objective look at who's beaten who out of those three teams, Chapman, Chico, and ASU.

Chapman-

Wins-
#19 Chico State by 9
#16 Utah by 7
#12 Arizona by 8
#21 Michigan State by 5
#22 Texas Tech by 7
UR Santa Clara by 4
UR North Texas by 11

Losses-
#5 UCSB by 1
#14 Cal Poly by 4
#25 UCLA by 8
#23 ASU by 1

Chico State

Wins-
#16 Utah by 1
UR Nevada by 9
UR Texas State by 18
UR Stanford by 1
UR Mankato by 16

Losses-
#20 Chapman by 9
#14 Cal Poly by 5
#6 Oregon by 5
UR Texas by 6

Arizona State

Wins-

#20 Chapman by 1
#21 Michigan State by 1
UR Utah State by 13
UR LMU by 4
UR Santa Clara by 1

Losses-

#1 Sonoma by 9
UR Simon Fraser by 1


In my opinion, the claim that Chapman should be above Chico is valid. Chapman has done well this year, and though their record won't be enough to launch them into the top 5 (no one claimed it was), it's certainly enough to keep them in healthy position in the top 25- the thing holding them back is their losses to ASU and UCLA.

Chico simply hasn't done enough yet this year. They're in good shape to make WCLL playoffs (if they beat Davis), but aren't in good shape for making the national tournament this year since the power in the schedule has already passed except for Noma. A win against a #16 team is not enough to hold them high in the rankings (13 if you want an AL bid), especially with a loss to unranked Texas (even thought I don't expect them to be unranked at the next poll).

Arizona State... Their season still lies for the most part in front of them. They've played seven games, but the games that matter for their ranking are in the second half of their season. They still have CSU, CU, UCSD, UCSB, and Arizona left on their schedule. For now, it's tough to argue either way as to whether they belong higher or lower, but I think #23 is around the right ballpark for them at this point.

I think the thing you have to remember about polls is that it will take some time for them to adjust. There's also always going to be lag in movement, and it's always easier for a team to drop than it is for one to climb (Ask Oregon, UCSD, Lindenwood...). The poll that really matters is the one at the end of the year- I've never heard a team boasting about their preseason rating after the season is over.

I'm not a poll voter, but I still pay attention to who's beating who- so I'm sure the poll voters are doing the same even more so. I assure you that out of 30 voters, the teams mentioned above have not escaped their notice.

Long story short,

Chapman
Either way- ASU/ Chico

[NCInDaPlaceTaBe]

#6 Oregon by 5[quote][/quote]

[NCInDaPlaceTaBe]

Oregon won 9-3, making it a 6 goal win over Chico

[biola_defense]

Biola - 14
UC Irvine - 11

[WaterBoy]

Since it wasn't on uslmdia yet, I only had what was posted in this thread, which was reported 9-4 by Ty Webb. I think the big point is... does it matter?

Good game from Biola! That will definitely do things to help you guys out.

[AIRTERP]

Wow...very nice post WaterBoy! Clear, substantiated and very thorough.

When we look at the wins and losses of all three of those teams laid out next to each other in WaterBoy's post I believe it is really telling of the respective quality of these teams compared to one another.

The various arguments that I have seen posted both for and against one or all of these teams are: 1. They are "young, talented and inconsistent." 2. You can't hold one or two "bad games" against a team. 3. They only beat a lesser or unranked team by one goal, etc...And there is some validity to all of these arguments.

But analyzing the wins and losses as objectively as possible (as in WaterBoy's post) to me I see a clear picture as far as how to rank these teams, especially when all of the above arguments are taken into account. (And before there are 30 posts pointing out the flaws in my arguments by throwing in seven other teams who could fit into this argument, note that I am only discussing these three teams and how they relate in respect to one another which seems to be the point of discussion at the moment).

First..combining arguments 1 and 2 above as they are related in that number 1 in a way justifies number 2, it appears many followers of these boards are willing to grant a team the proverbial "one or two bad games" get out of jail free-cards. (I know this is a debatable topic on its own, but let's have a little fun and say this is true). And they are more inclined to grant clemency for these bad games to middle seeded teams (National Rankings 11-20). With that in mind these three teams records look like this:

Chico:

Wins
#16 Utah by 1
Unranked UNR by 9
Unranked Texas State by 18
Unranked Stanford by 1
Unranked Mankato by 16

Losses
#14 Cal Poly by 5
#6 Oregon by 6
(removing losses to Chapman and Texas based on the lower rankings of both these teams as their allotted two “bad games”)

ASU

Wins
#21 Michigan State by 1
Unranked Utah State by 13
Unranked LMU by 4
Unranked Santa Clara by 1
(removing win over Chapman because it qualifies as one of Chapman's "bad game" losses)

Losses
None
(removal of customary 2 losses to Sonoma St and Simon Fraser)

Chapman

Wins
#16 Utah by 7
#12 Arizona by 8
#21 Michigan State by 5
#22 Texas Tech by 7
Unranked Santa Clara by 4
Unranked North Texas by 11
(removing win over Chico because loss qualified as one of Chico's "bad game" losses)

Losses
#5 UCSB by 1
#14 Cal Poly by 4
(removing losses to UCLA and ASU based on lower rankings and qualifying as “bad games”)

So now we have Chico with a 5-2 record with two tough losses to very good teams ranked above them (#14 and #6 by a total of 10 goals...5 in each loss). However they only have one win over a ranked opponent. Beating #16 Utah by 1.

ASU now has a record of 4-0, but only one ranked opponent victory, winning over #21 Michigan State by 1.

Chapman's record becomes 6-2 with two tough losses to very good teams ranked above them (#14 and #5 by a total of 5 goals). And 4 of their 6 wins are against ranked teams (#12, #16, #21, and #22) with the smallest margin of victory being 5 goals.

Finally I will take into account the 3rd argument that it should count against a team, to be beat a lesser-ranked opponent or an opponent they are expected to beat handily by only one goal. (I personally disagree with this entire notion because it is a completely ambiguous argument. Is it only 1 goal wins, or do two goal wins count against you as well? If they are a really bad team is it a disappointment if you win by 3? …4? Not to mention any number of reasons could of contributed to the close game...injuries, weather, god-forbid POOR OFFICIATING...etc. But for fun let's go with it!).

If this is taken into account then both Chico and ASU are subtracted one win each. Chico loses their Stanford victory and ASU loses their Santa Clara Victory.

Chico 4-2
ASU 3-0
Chapman 6-2

So with all the arguments on this board taken into account, I would rank these teams 1. Chapman 2. ASU 3. Chico. Now an argument could definitely be made for Chico to be ahead of ASU due to their win over Utah and their losses to higher ranked teams, especially because of ASU having not played as many ranked teams. So I just talked myself out of it. I now rank Chico second. Actually you can shuffle those two teams around all you want. Either is fine.

But what jumps out at me is that when we look at these three teams in this way, Chapman really does look like the stronger team. It seems when they are firing on all cylinders they are really impressive (I am going by margin of victory over other ranked opponents versus margin of victory over ranked opponents for Chico and ASU). I think it would be difficult to justify saying that all of their opponents had "bad games" against Chapman.

Now the facts are you can't ignore Chapman lost to ASU by one, and that Chico lost to Chapman by 9. But I guess the question is does the ASU loss really out way the rest of what Chapman has done this year? And does the fact that Chico beat a resurgent Utah squad really out way their loss to Chapman by 9?

The great thing is that there is plenty of opportunity for these teams to really show where they belong. Chapman has a huge game against UCSD tomorrow and they get Florida and Florida State alter this year. It has already been made clear how many opportunities ASU has to make a statement in a big way the rest of the way. Chico has it a little bit tougher since the only statement game they have left this year are Sonoma State (I know some would argue Oregon State could be a statement game but then we could at that to Chapman’s list as well since they play them too). So I am excited to see how these teams end up looking by the end of the year.

Sorry this is so long, but I was bored and interested (a deadly combination)…and I needed something to do in between watching the NCAA tourney games.

[Bluevelvet]

Bluevelvet, better check your math because ASU only plays 13 games. Unless, you were assuming a playoff loss. In that case you are all good.

ASU plays 14 games according to laxpower. Maybe you didn't count the DU club team.

[CATLAX MAN]

I watched the ASU game against Santa Clara and ASU should have lost that game. They were extremely lucky to have pulled it out at the end. From having seen them first hand, I can tell you positively that they are lucky to even have a ranking.