by WaterBoy on Tue Feb 28, 2006 4:34 am
Ok. I couldn't really think where to put this, but since this thread is going in that direction anyway... here goes.
I think that this year, more than any other year of recent memory, the top ten is a toss up. Let it sink in before you all get defensive.
Last year, the spots from about 7-15 were particularly difficult to determine. This year, I think it may go from the top down. There are two ways to interpret what I feel is going on this year- either some of the top tier programs have taken a small step backwards, or the teams breaking into the upper ranks have just bridged the gap.
I know it will make people mad- but I think it is a combo of the two, leaning towards the former. Personally, I think graduation hit a lot of the top schools hard last year. If what I've read is correct, UCSB and Michigan both lost 12 seniors, and CSU and BYU also lost a good deal of talent. SSU graduated some of their strong middies, and with another out for a few weeks with a broken hand and Cannis inelligible, they remain an unknown.
Please be clear- in no way am I saying that any of these teams are bad. To do so would be foolish and disrespectful to those programs. What I am saying, however, is that if I got to pick between going to the national tourney this year, and going any of the past 4, I would choose this year hands down.
The road to a national championship this year is open to more teams (as in teams having a solid shot) than any tourney I've seen.
I will admit that I had to change what would have been my tone for this post- several hours ago it was going to be more along the lines of "this is the year for a non-powerhouse to win the championship- and I was going to point to teams like Oregon, UCSD, and FSU. The Michigan game tonight changed my tone a little.
Now I just think that the "pack" may be bunched up near the top. In my opinion, the top 2 (Noma and CSU) should be there until someone beats them- as in someone shows they deserve those spots. The next couple of places? Just try to figure it out in your head- I think UCSB has a good claim at 3rd- then... BYU? Michigan? FSU? CU?
I think we won't really know much until after this weekend- when Noma gets to flex some muscle against some more solid competition- and even then a lot of the mental conundrum still exists.
On a little bit of a side note (I just like these cause they're fun- if I recall there was one last year between SFU, Oregon, and Chico)
Cal Poly beats BYU, so logically Cal Poly is better, right?
UCSD beats Cal Poly, so logically UCSD is better.
Michigan beats UCSD, so Michigan is better.
BYU beats Michigan- so BYU is better than Cal Poly?
Clearly there are circumstance to each of these- but I just like it when games turn themselves into unresolvable logic orders.