4th MDIA Div. A Poll (4/6/05). Thoughts, Predictions, etc.

[CATLAX MAN]

With four games left to go, one against a tough northeastern team, BC has plenty of chances to redeem their loss.

Not really. The best way to redeem themselves after a bad loss is to win some games against ranked teams. This is not BC's situation.

With all that said their presence in MN will most likely rely on thier performance in the PCLL tournament.

In my opinion, it relies solely on their winning the PCLL AQ. Very unlikely to get an at-large at this point, but who knows?

[TMcCourt]

Yes but Catlax when you say late season, it is west coast late season. Remember PCLL starts much much later than the WCLL or other leagues.

[BClax16]

Not really. The best way to redeem themselves after a bad loss is to win some games against ranked teams. This is not BC's situation.

Pitt is ranked BC beat them then next day

[CATLAX MAN]

Yes but Catlax when you say late season, it is west coast late season. Remember PCLL starts much much later than the WCLL or other leagues.

It's just not late season for the West Coast, it's late season for everyone. Most leagues are ending this weekend with conference tourneys to follow the next weekend.

Pitt is ranked BC beat them then next day

C'mon. Eking out a win against #22 and losing to #23 is not going to help the #9 team that much. I think you know that.

[wldctlax]

As long as BC wins out the rest of the season, if they lose the PCLL crown to UNH they still should have a shot at an at-large. There really isn't much separating BC, Oakland, UCSD, Vtech, and FSU. Close losses to ranked teams within your division shouldn't hurt you that much. BC shouldn't fall below 11-12 which would still leave them in the position to take an at large. So why would losing to the same team twice drop them out if that's their only loss? The only ranked team Oakland has beaten so far is Pitts, and they're hanging on to the top 25 by the skin of their teeth. UCSD has some wins over ranked teams in the toughest conference in PCLL, and GT. It looks like FSU and VT have a couple quality wins apiece but a few losses to ranked opponents. I'd put UCSD, BC (ONLY if they win out and lose the PCLL to UNH), and the winner of FSU/Vtech (if they take it to the SEC finals) taking the last three at large bids.

[UNH2001]

Yes you have to take into consideration the PCLL is in mid season...the conf championships are typically about a week before the MDIA national tournament in the PCLL. I still think the PCLL teams should continue to play out of conference games against ranked opponents, but fans in the rest of the country must realize many of these games in Feb or March pits a PCLL team that has not seen a field (or parking lot) since fall ball. This is a disadvantage the PCLL will have to deal with until everyone has indoor facilities that can alleviate this problem.

The only thing a PCLL team can do is go to MN and beat teams ranked ahead of them. If that happens then you may see more than one PCLL team in the tournament, but until that happens it will be difficult.

In Boston College's case, you have to take into account their loss to New Hampshire was a rivalry game. While this is a fairly recent rivalry in the PCLL and MDIA, both these teams were both fierce rivals when they were both NCAA D1 programs. I believe UNH beat BC in their last official America East game in 1997 in a closly contested and spirited contest. To add fuel to the fire both these schools are about an hour or so drive from each other and have many big games in sports such as hockey (Hockey East is huge in New England, dare I say bigger than football).

It should be a very interesting finish to the PCLL this year, with BC, UNH, and Northeastern (and maybe Bridgewater State) looking for a shot at the AQ.
My final question....If UNH wins the AQ, beats BC in the championship in a close game, will BC get an at large bid? If BC is still in the top 10 or so this will be a tough call. Are there any poll voters out there who would like to talk about how they would vote in this hypothetical situation?????

[onpoint]

I will say that it will be hard to keep BC in at-large contention with another loss in the PCLL, not impossible since there is kind of a logjam down around #10-13, but not a play the Eagles want to be. I would not take anything for granted if I was BC and make sure to win the PCLL.

[CATLAX MAN]

It's almost for certain that BC will need to get the AQ to get to the tourney. Assume that they lose the AQ and nothing else changes, that would put the LSA, UMLL, & PCLL in who are outside the Top 16. At a minimum then, you would have to finish 13 to squeak in. Losing the AQ would mean a 2nd loss to a unranked/much lower ranked team which has got to translate into a drop of 2-3 slots, perhaps more. Add that to the projected loss of a few slots with this loss and that puts them out of the Top 13.

I seen this posted now more than once: "you have to take into account their loss to New Hampshire was a rivalry game." For the life of me, I cannot understand what this has to do with the price of tea in China. Are the voters supposed to ignore the loss because it's a "rivalry" game? If Michigan lost to Michigan State, would you be saying the same thing? I think not.

[WaterBoy]

Once again, I find myself agreeing with CATLAX. If you use the logic that the game should be close because it is a rivalry game, you would have to use that logic for BOTH teams.

If the game is a rivalry, wouldn't both teams be doing their best? Using that logic, it would seem as though games with rivalry would be some of the best measuring sticks for team potential.

Logic Sequence:
- Rivalry produces maximum effort
- Maximum effort produces better results for each team
- Both teams play to their own highest standard

If CSU dropped a game to an unranked team, it wouldn't be discounted, even if they were also from the RMLC. If CSU had lost to UCSB, UCSB would be above them in the polls. I don't understand the logic behind BC being a "special case" to the concept of poll judgment. I'm not necessarily advocating that BC needs to be below UNH (that's for the pollsters), but I would advocate that a drop in the polls would be appropriate.

[Timbalaned]

SFU is a huge rivalry game for us, and we lost. We didn't complain, we just got beat that day and we paid for it in the polls, but we battled back by proving ourselves the rest of the year against good ranked teams. BC is in a tough position because they don't play anyone else that is really ranked the rest of the year, so they don't have much of a chance to prove themselves again. So I would have to agree with CATLAX and Waterboy, win the PCLL tourny...

[onpoint]

But . . . . in this weekend's CSU/CU game, the logic would say that CSU has the superior team pretty much up and down the field and SHOULD win by six or seven goals. However, I would be surprised if this is more than a one or two goal game. I think a rivalry game does have some merit in keeping a game close for a team ranked under their opponent.

[Sonny]

My final question....If UNH wins the AQ, beats BC in the championship in a close game, will BC get an at large bid? If BC is still in the top 10 or so this will be a tough call. Are there any poll voters out there who would like to talk about how they would vote in this hypothetical situation?????

As poll admin, I wouldn't encourage any poll voters discussing their votes (in a public manner) like this - regardless of the situation or teams/conferences involved. It really isn't appropriate and all it's going to do is create hurt feelings for the various parties involved.

BC, UNH, and the other PCLL teams know how to punch their ticket to Minnesota for sure - Win their conference tournament. Otherwise, they will take their chances with the poll and the handful of at-large selections.

[Gregg Pathiakis]

Yes but Catlax when you say late season, it is west coast late season. Remember PCLL starts much much later than the WCLL or other leagues.

It's just not late season for the West Coast, it's late season for everyone. Most leagues are ending this weekend with conference tourneys to follow the next weekend.

It may be only two weeks before playoffs, but the PCLL is still in midseason. PCLL teams have, on average, more than half their conference games left. Our season basically lasts a month and we are at about the half-way point, so no, it is not late in the season for the PCLL. We have games being played until Wednesday, April 27, the day before playoffs begin.

seen this posted now more than once: "you have to take into account their loss to New Hampshire was a rivalry game." For the life of me, I cannot understand what this has to do with the price of tea in China. Are the voters supposed to ignore the loss because it's a "rivalry" game? If Michigan lost to Michigan State, would you be saying the same thing? I think not.

I would definitely take into account that the game is a very heated rivalry. Yes, as Waterboy pointed out, this should produce the best performance by both teams. For UNH, it resulted in a better-than-usual performance. UNH was at home in front of a very rowdy crowd and BC dealt with severe heckling throughout the game. That should not factor into the poll, but the fact that the two best club teams in New England battling into overtime should weigh in. What if BC won in overtime? Remember, it's sudden death... BC lost by one goal after regulation ended. I expected the game to be one or two goals. With a game that close, especially in overtime, I think a loss means a lot less. Bring on the counter-attack.

[CATLAX MAN]

Everyone understands that the PCLL starts late, but you need to put it in context in a larger picture. The MDIA is a national organization and its poll is a national poll. Most of the schools who participate in this national organization have played most of their games already. The pollsters have a lot of information from many games that have already been played from which to draw conclusions about the relative strength of teams. The fact that the PCLL still has a lot of games to play is not really relevant in the grand scheme of the national poll, since most of those PCLL games do not involve ranked teams and the vast majority of games have already been played in other leagues already. There is no escaping that fact.

Regarding rivalry games, everyone understands that these games are played under heated conditions. However, if the #9 team is playing the #22 team, the ratings would seem to indicate that the #9 team should dominate if the ratings are correct. Since the #9 team lost to a much lower rated team, it is only right to question the validity of that ranking. There is no getting around that fact with rationalizations. Any other explanation of the reason for that loss is, again, irrelevant. There is no rivalry factor adjustment in poll voting in my mind, sorry.

[TMcCourt]

Catlax I respect your opinion and have always enjoyed your posts but I have to disagree on the timing of the season. Like you said the MDIA is a national organization. This means it starts when the first league starts and ends when the last league (PCLL) ends. Which means since we are midseason you cannot call this a late season game. People had no problem voting before the PCLL started but you would like the poll basically done before the PCLL finishes?

Regardless this discussion has hit a roadblock and BC or UNH or whoever has to prove themselves through the rest of the year and the pcll tourney.