Danny Hogan wrote:weather...
oregon is pretty much a win over SFU and they are in probably around the 14 spot (with an AQ to boot)
for UF, it comes down to BC or ATM stumbling in their conf tourneys, which could either bounce them out or jump them up as high as 13 depending on the votes....
I might be missing something, but I don't think Florida has to worry about upsets in the PCLL. I would have said they were the big winner in the BU win over BC. Here is why: If BC is 11 and were to be upset in the tournament, they might fall to 14, and then the AQ would bump a #15 Florida. However, at #!4, if BC losses again to another unranked team in less than 2 weeks, they will fall out of the top 16, Florida will move up, and the AQ will take BC's spot, not Florida's.
Now as far as an upset in the LSA. Texas A&M's profile is consistent play over non-ranked and close play in loses against ranked (minus possibly against the hot/cold lindenwood). If Texas A&M were to lose at #13, here again I'd predict they'd take a big hit, because they would no longer have the consistent resume. They'd fall either out of the T16 or to #16 where the LSA AQ would bump their own conference member.
Finally in the PNCLL. Here I believe Oregon needs to win (obviously) or a close loss to SFU - a loss inwhich they must lead for some considerable amount of time -- and not just 1-0. If they meet these requirements, then I think they can jump Florida. A loss without making it a game will cause them to stay put or drop. The big thing here is, I would predict, is the box scores have to show Oregon had a good showing in the game, they won't be helped by word of mouth.