by CPLaxGM on Fri Apr 11, 2008 2:28 pm
Wow, this is an exhausting thread. I hesitate to wade into this debate now that it seems to have died down, but I've got a few points that I don't remember seeing discussed (of course, I could have just glazed over somewhere around page 7) and I think the accusations of bias that have flown around are important and need to be addressed.
1. The UCSB Conundrum
The biggest complaint about the recent poll appears to be that UCSB moved up 2 spots despite going 1-3 since the last ranking, and that there was no explanation besides an obvious WCLL bias. I admit that UCSB moving up seems very odd, so I tried to delve into it deeper.
The biggest problem is that after #1-6, the rankings are an utter mess, especially from #7-#15. No one can argue that since FSU and Florida beat UCSB they should automatically be ranked above them. If that was the case, Utah would be above CSU, LMU above Florida, and UCF above VTech, and I haven't heard anyone making those arguments. Of course, it's also logistically impossible to rank that way since there have been so many Team A beat Team B who beat Team C - but Team C beat Team A scenarios.
We've seen plenty of arguments on this board that the pollsters should not just move teams around from week to week based on the previous ranking. So in essence, the best pollsters are probably starting nearly from scratch each week, and not worried about moving a team up or moving a team down, but simply where does this team belong.
So where do the teams belong?
I tried to figure out how I would rank the #7 - #15 slots, you know like a real pollster, and it doesn't take long to figure out that it's not easy.
CSU: losses to BYU, Sonoma, Utah; wins over BC, UMC, AZ, CP
UCSB: losses to BYU, ASU, FSU, Florida; wins over Sonoma, Claremont, CP, AZ, NE
Sonoma: losses to SFU, UCSB; wins over CSU, CP, TAM
Oregon: losses to CSU, SFU; win over CU
FSU: losses to Georgia, VTech, BC; wins over Utah, SB
BC: losses to Georgia, CSU, UMD; wins over FSU, Florida
Florida: losses to BC, LMU, Chapman; wins over Georgia, SB
VTech: losses to UCF; wins over Georgia, FSU
Georgia: losses to Florida, VTech, Lindenwood; wins over BC, Utah, FSU
Does that paint a clear picture to anyone? If it does, I suggest a career in mathematical theory.
Here's the order I came up with:
CSU, Sonoma, BC, FSU, VTech, UCSB, Oregon, Georgia, Florida
But if you asked me why exactly I placed each team in each position, I would be hard pressed to tell you. There were reasons behind it (e.g. Georgia has good wins but that loss to Lindenwood hurts, Oregon's losses are minimal but so are their quality wins, UCSB's victory over Sonoma helps a lot but that Florida loss is painful, etc.). And I would hardly be able to dispute if someone came up with a very different look for the #7-15 teams.
In a nutshell, right now #7-15 is a roll of the dice. The pollsters may all be diligently analyzing their poll numbers but just coming up with slightly different conclusions.
2. Points for History
The argument that someone made comparing UCSB's current ranking and sending the Florida basketball team to the NCAA tournament this year because they won the past two years is faulty. If I could remember all the way back to critical thinking class, I could tell you if it was a red herring or poisoning the well; whatever it's called, it's wrong.
No matter where you think the Gauchos should be ranked right now, I think everyone can concede that UCSB is right in the thick of this #7-15 jumble. It's not like they should be ranked #25 and their getting boosted to #8 on their past reputation.
They should be ranked somewhere between #7-15, and they ended up on the high end of that range. Within that context, I would say pollsters are perfectly justified using their very recent historical success as a guage to help sort things out. If there is no obvious way to differentiate between these nine teams, it makes sense if someone takes recent success into account.
The national tournament is a grind. For the most part, it takes teams with great depth and excellent coaching to succeed year in and year out. As a pollster, if you can't decide between putting UCSB or VTech at #11 or #12, I don't see why it's biased to pick UCSB. After all, they've demonstrated they can perform in the very recent past.
That doesn't mean you put UCSB at #11 if they deserve to be #25, but in a messy poll situation like the current one I could understand why recent history would be considered.
3. It always seems to work itself out...
In all the years I've been following this tournament, there have been very few disputes about the teams that have gotten into the tournament. Much fewer complaints, than say, the NCAA basketball tournament.
The one specific example I remember is the debate between Cal Poly and Utah in 2006 (obviously I was fairly close to that one so it makes sense that I remember, but I really cannot recall another one). Utah had beaten us during the regular season in OT, so they argued that obviously they were better. Others, saw it differently, probably because Utah was more inconsistent. Cal Poly went to the tournament and Utah was justifiably disappointed.
We performed well and had the only upset in the 1st round (I think). Does it mean we were better than Utah? No, but it showed that the pollsters didn't make a poor choice, although who really knows if they made the correct choice.
The bottom line is that the pollsters have consistently gotten things correct. In over a decade worth of tournaments, we've had essentially one minor controversy over who got in. So even though the regular season is winding down, I have faith in the pollsters to incorporate everything that goes on in the next few weeks and get it right again.
The state of this MCLA union is strong, my friends. The SELC and the WCLL may not like each other much, I've got no particular problem with that, but let's not be firing off ad hominem attacks about "obvious bias" when the truth is likely far less dramatic. When it comes right down to it, I think everyone wants the 16 best representatives at the tournament, regardless of which league they're coming from. And no one is going to jeopardize this system that we've all built together (cue the kumbayah) for the sake of some misplaced allegiance to their particular league.
Last edited by
CPLaxGM on Fri Apr 11, 2008 3:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
itd be a lot easier, i wouldnt have to get up and do all that damn running
