Bubble Watch

[Highheat]

So......... is Noma on the bubble now since they got stomped today?

[UkraineNotWeak]

So......... is Noma on the bubble now since they got stomped today?

Why would they be? They are going to win their division. They will get a home game for the quarterfinals. Depending on the matchup, they could make the Final 4. If they get the Central or South Division #2, they will match up favorably. If they get the LA Division #2 (Chapman, SB, or LMU) it could be a potential problem. They are very tough to beat at home.

[buffalowill]

Changed up a few of the locks and bubble teams based on this weekends results. I think we have 11 teams solidly IN the tourney today. UCSB locked up their spot with a convincing win over Sonoma. I always though that the Gauchos will peak later in the season as the team finds their own identity.

The means, barring any upsets in the conference tournaments, there are 5 at-large spots remaining. Out of all the conference tournaments the SELC Championships could be the most interesting in terms of MCLA Championship implications (too bad it looks like UCF will not be making the playoffs).

Who gets in?
Sonoma, will possible cakewalk to WCLL Final 4 secure a bid?
Virginia Tech, loss to UCF was the first game of the season, win over FSU
CSU, losses to Sonoma, Utah, BYU.
Florida, win over UCSB and Georgia. Loss to LMU hurts.
Oregon, loss to CSU and SFU.
Colorado, schedule may hurt their chances, L to Oregon, Utah, BYU
Georgia, Loss to Lindenwood hurts bad, W over FSU, BC
Stanford, needs to beat Cal Poly and impress in the playoffs
Cal Poly, on life support but still has a chance
LMU, still has a chance for the playoff bid to throw a wrench!
Claremont, big (10 goal) win over Utah, but will likely miss the playoffs

Is there someone I missed?

[More Cowbell]

How is UCSB a lock? Their only solid T25 wins are against sonoma and cal poly...Arizona and NU are very low in the polls, and many think they shouldnt be in there at all. SB has lost to FSU, Florida (who you still have on the bubble), ASU, and BYU. I dont think I would call them a lock at all. They do have a chance to become one in the WCLL Tourney, but right now theyre not a lock in my book.

[buffalowill]

They are the most "fluid" lock at the moment. :)

[CATLAX MAN]

As much as I'd like to see UCSB as a lock, I don't think it's set in stone either. There is a better than average chance that they don't make it out of the first round of the WCLL playoffs. That's happened before and they still made the tourney and gone all the way to the semis, but it's not a sure thing at this point. On the other side of the coin, many of the teams that could potentially be rated below them are not really making a strong case to move up either.

[Dan Wishengrad]

Will: Virginia Tech beat both Florida State AND Georgia. The lack of an OOC schedule against ranked teams may hurt VT, but they are 10-1 and deserve some consideration. The SELC has risen quite a bit in my eyes due to the conference's strong OOC wins so far in '08, and VT is clearly one of the better SELC teams.

[Timbalaned]

If I were going off of what Will has, which I am not saying it is going to be, I would say the last spot is a fight between Florida, Colorado, and Stanford. All the other teams above those three in Will's set up are in, IMO

[buffalowill]

Dan...I have them listed, right? I totally think they could win the SELC.

[buffalowill]

Updated through April 13th.

So we have 11 "locks".

Who is next? My list goes:

CSU
Florida
UCSB
Georgia
Sonoma State

Just out:
Stanford (they should get to the WCLL Final Four unblemished)
Oregon
Colorado
After that who knows!

If I missed anyone...please correct me!

[Ballaholic]

record wise this year I would put georgia ahead of them. and for pcll i'm saying that if BC were to lose the AQ, I could see them going over a team like arizona

I see BC being able to knock off the 5th WCLL team, but I don't see that happening with Northeastern, Florida, Georgia, etc. Could happen with FSU though.

if Florida can beat UCSB, why cant they beat the 5th WCLL team?

[PNWLaxer]

Based on Will's current breakdown

SELC - 4 FSU, UGA, UF, VT
WCLL - 4 ASU, Chap, SSU, UCSB
RMLC - 2 BYU, CSU
CCLA - 1 Mich
GRLC - 1 LU
LSA - 1 TAMU
PCLL - 1 BC
PNCLL - 1 SFU
UMLL - 1 UMD

The SELC's go at the end of this week and 2 of the teams listed above will not make it to a Sunday game....will that be enough to maintain their current position. Sitting at #'s 11, 13, 14 and 15 there is not a lot of wiggle room for the early round losers. Barring any upsets on Friday there will be a lot of scoreboard watching and nervous waiting until May 5 for those teams that lose on Saturday to see if they did enough to make the final 16.

The teams that I think could jump up and snag that last NC birth are:

Colorado, Poly and Utah these teams in my opinion are the most likely teams to make some noise in the playoffs. If one of these 3 teams can pull an upset it may just be enough to knock one of the teams above them out.

[iDinosaur!]

So just for giggles...

Let's say CSU loses to CU in the final game of the regular season. They go into conference tourney ranked 3 and 4. They both lose in the first round. Does the RMLC only send 1 team to the tourney? Crazy.

3 of last years Final Four teams are on the bubble as it currently stands, BYU looking to be the only lock at the present time.

I think no matter what happens we are going to see some fresh faces in the quarter finals in TX this year.

[GeorgiaLacrosse]

selc tourney should be really interesting this weekend... if everything goes as expected in round one then saturday's games will be...

#11 Florida State vs. #15 Georgia

#13 Florida #14 Virginia Tech

and the winners playing sunday

[buffalowill]

All kinds of wrenches thrown into the machine this week!