Playoff Picture and Predictions

[Gregg Pathiakis]

As it has been noted, if NU, UC, and UNH all win their remaining games (NU and UC both have 2, UNH has 3), they will be in a three-way tie for first place. Since they are all 1-1 in games versus eachother, it moves to goal differential. Here is how it stacks up so far:

NU: +34
UNH: +31
UC: +22

If all three teams win their remaining games, in order for UC to take the #1 seed, they have to win their two games by a combined differential of +15 with NU winning both of their games by only one and UNH not outscoring their opponent by more than one each game. If this happens, goal differential will be this:

NU: +35
UNH: +34
UC: +36

Since NU has CG and BSC and UNH has SC, BU, and CG remaining, this scenario is unlikely. More than likely it will come down to NU or UNH taking the tiebreaker.

If NU takes the tie breaker, top three seeds are:
1. NU
2. UNH
3. UC
Since NU takes the goal differential tie-breaker, UNH-UC tie-breaker goes back to head-to-head. Since UNH beat UC, UNH takes #2 seed.

If UNH takes the tie breaker, top three seeds are:
1. UNH
2. UC
3. NU
Same reason. NU lost to UC.

Some other things to look at:

BC 4-2
Remaining: WPI, UC, URI
Beat: BU, CG, SC BSC
Lost: UNH, NU

CG 3-33
Remaining: NU, UNH, BSC
Beat: URI, SC, WPI
Lost: BU, BC, UC

BU 2-3
Remaining: SC, UNH, WPI, URI
Beat: CG, BSC
Lost: BC, NU, UC

SC 2-4
Remaining: UNH, BSC, BU
Beat: WPI, URI
Lost: UC, CG, BC, NU

URI 1-4
Remaining: BSC, BU, BC, UC
Beat: WPI
Lost: NU, CG, UNH, SC

BSC 0-4
Remaining: CG, NU, SC, URI, WPI
Beat: none
Lost: UC, UNH, BC, BU

WPI 0-6
Remaining: NU, UC, UNH, CG, SC, URI
Beat: none
Lost: BC, BU, BSC

Some other time I will look at teams eliminated from contention, etc.

[Wildcat731]

UNH beat Stonehill 19-5 so that brings our differential up to +39 correct?

[Gregg Pathiakis]

...pointless... edited out

[Gregg Pathiakis]

Update: UNH beat Stonehill by 14. Since goal differential is capped at 8, here is the new info:

UNH: +39
NU: +34
UC: +22

If all three teams win their remaining two games, UC can not win the goal differential. However, since UNH and NU can still fight for it, the top three spots will still be up for grabs. We either have UNH-UC-NU or NU-UNH-UC as the top three.

Technically, no teams are eliminated from contention yet. WPI, which is currently 0-6, can get a spot by winning their remaing three games (BU, BSC, and BC) and by BU losing their remaining, SC losing their remaining, URI losing atleast three of their remaining four, and BSC doing something (little more complicated there since WPI is one of their remaining opponents). Since the last place team is still in contention, obviously all teams are still in contention as well.

[Gregg Pathiakis]

Further analysis...

If BC beats Connecticut on Friday and BC, UC, NU, and UNH all win their remaining games...

1. NU 8-1 (wins tie-breaker vs. UNH due to head-to-head win)
2. UNH 8-1
3. BC 7-2 (wins tie-breaker vs. UC due to head-to-head win)
4. UC 7-2

This is my prediction for the top four teams.

[Gregg Pathiakis]

My predictions...


I talk about the top 4 above.

Coast Guard...
Remaining opponents: NU, UNH, BSC
Will win: BSC
Will lose: NU, UNH
Too close to call: none
Final Record: 4-5

Boston University...
Remaining opponents: SC, UNH, WPI, URI
Will win: SC, WPI
Will lose: UNH
Too close to call: URI
Final Record: 5-4 or 4-5

Stonehill...
Remaining opponents: BSC, BU
Will win: BSC
Will lose: BU
Too close to call: none
Final Record: 3-6

Rhode Island...
Remaining opponents: BSC, BU, BC, UC
Will win: BSC
Will lose: BC, UC
Too close to call: BU
Final Record: 3-6 or 2-7

Bridgewater...
Remaining opponents: CG, NU, SC, URI, WPI
Will win: none
Will lose: CG, NU, SC, URI
Too close to call: WPI
Final record: 1-8 or 0-9

WPI...
Remaining opponents: BSC, BU, BC
Will win: none
Will lose: BU, BC
Too close to call: BSC
Final record: 1-8 or 0-9

Based on these predicitions...

PLAYOFF BOUND:
1. NU 8-1 (wins tie-breaker vs. UNH due to head-to-head win)
2. UNH 8-1
3. BC 7-2 (wins tie-breaker vs. UC due to head-to-head win)
4. UC 7-2
5. BU 5-4 or 4-5 (if they lose to URI, the head-to-head tie-breaker with CG goes to BU)
6. CG 4-5

NOT PLAYOFF BOUND:
7. SC 3-6 (if URI beats BU, Stonehill takes the head-to-head tiebreaker)
8. URI 3-6 or 2-7
9-10. BSC and WPI. #9 will go to winner of BSC-WPI game.

Getting a little ahead of myself, but predicitions for the playoffs:

Round #1
BC vs CG: BC
UC vs BU: UC

Round #2:
NU vs UC: NU
UNH vs BC: BC

Championship:
NU vs BC: NU

[Gregg Pathiakis]

BU beat URI, 8-4.

My updated predictions.

PLAYOFF BOUND:
1. NU 8-1 (wins tie-breaker vs. UNH due to head-to-head win)
2. UNH 8-1
3. BC 7-2 (wins tie-breaker vs. UC due to head-to-head win)
4. UC 7-2
5. BU 5-4
6. CG 4-5

NOT PLAYOFF BOUND:
7. SC 3-6 (if URI beats BU, Stonehill takes the head-to-head tiebreaker)
8. URI 2-7
9-10. BSC and WPI. #9 will go to winner of BSC-WPI game.

[Dan Warren]

Bridgewater...
Remaining opponents: CG, NU, SC, URI, WPI
Will win: none Will lose: CG, NU, SC, URI
Too close to call: WPI
Final record: 1-8 or 0-9

WPI...
Remaining opponents: BSC, BU, BC
Will win: none
Will lose: BU, BC
Too close to call: BSC
Final record: 1-8 or 0-9

Someone has to win the BSC/WPI game....right?

[Dan Warren]

I see "too close to call" but take a stab at it.

by the way...when is this game?

[Stonehillcoach]

It also looks like whoever wins the BU vs. Stonehill game this coming Monday makes it to the playoffs and whoever loses is out.

[Gregg Pathiakis]

I see "too close to call" but take a stab at it.

by the way...when is this game?

Well, without their amazing ex-head coach at the helm, I'm sorry to say I predict a WPI win.

[Gregg Pathiakis]

It also looks like whoever wins the BU vs. Stonehill game this coming Monday makes it to the playoffs and whoever loses is out.

I believe you're right. A Stonehill win will put both teams at 4-5 (that is, if UNH beats BU) so Stonehill will win the head-to-head tie-breaker. However, if BU pulls an upset of UNH, or beats Stonehill, they will be 6-3 or 5-4 and Stonehill will have, at best, a 4-5 record.

[Dan Warren]

can you post when the BSC/WPI game is?

although it means nothing in the playoff picture, it would be good to see BSC finish with at least one Div. A win. Might be worth watching (to me at least)

[Gregg Pathiakis]

Assuming... NU beats BSC, UC beats URI, and UNH beats BU...

1. NU 8-1
2. UNH 8-1 (tie breaker is head-to-head with NU)
3. BC 7-2 (tie breaker is head-to-head with UC)
4. UC 7-2
5-6 will be decided amongst BU, CG, and SC most likely.

[Gregg Pathiakis]

can you post when the BSC/WPI game is?

although it means nothing in the playoff picture, it would be good to see BSC finish with at least one Div. A win. Might be worth watching (to me at least)

Looks like it's been played. Don't know when. Date still says 3/25. BSC won 8-6.