PNCLL Week #11 (4/13-4/19) - Predict, Scores & Discuss

[Dan Wishengrad]

Friday, April 15th
Lewis & Clark 5 Willamette 2

Saturday, April 16th
Oregon 25 Western Washington 1
Washington 10 Gonzaga 9
Montana 16 Central Washington 9
Pacific Lutheran 9 Puget Sound 5
Oregon State 25 Idaho 4
Western Oregon 6 Southern Oregon 3

Sunday, April 17th
Oregon 27 Idaho 4
Washington 17 Central Washington 7
Montana 12 Whitman 8
Linfield 10 Southern Oregon 2
Western Oregon 13 Lewis & Clark 3

The final full weekend of PNCLL regular-season play will solve which six B Division teams make the playoffs.

Montana has clinched the B-East, and will be #1 or #2

Linfield has clinched the B-South, and will be #1 or #2

UPS clinches the B-North Division and the #3 seed with a win over PLU. The Loggers also take B-North if they lose to the Lutes by only one or two goals. If the Loggers lose the game by 3+ goals, UPS drops to the #5 At-Large and will play at #4 Whitman -- regardless of whether Whitman wins or loses at Montana.

PLU clinches the B-North and the #3 seed with a 3+ goal win over UPS. If the Lutes win by 3, head-to-head and goal differential are out, and Laxpower TSI decides, and this surely will award the #3 seed to PLU. Currently PLU leads UPS in the TSI standings, and a win by the Lutes over the Loggers in the final game certainly shouldn't flip-flop this comparative ranking. If PLU beats UPS by 1 or 2 goals they will wind up either the #4 or #5 seed (see below).

Whitman clinches the #4 seed and a home quarter-final game against UPS or PLU with a win at Montana. If the Missionaries lose to the Grizz, however, Whitman could wind up 5th if PLU beats UPS by 1 or 2 goals. So either a #4 Whitman will host #5 PLU or #5 UPS in Walla Walla OR a #5 Whitman plays at #4 PLU in Tacoma.

With me so far, boys and girls? Okay, we move on...

Western Oregon clinches the #6 seed and a game in Tacoma against either UPS or PLU with a home win over either Southern Oregon on Saturday. If SOU beats WOU, the Wolves can still earn the final playoff spot with a win over Lewis & Clark and a loss by the Raiders to Linfield. WOU played a non-division game and lost to Central Washington, which could cost the Wolves the playoffs since SOU is playing just the eight conference games. ALL games against the PNCLL B Division teams count in the At-Large playoff hunt. Two losses by WOU could knock them out of the playoffs, but then again it might not, because...

Southern Oregon grabs #6 with wins over both WOU and Linfield. If the Raiders lose to the Wolves, they are eliminated from the three at-large spots and the playoffs. If SOU beats WOU and loses to Linfield, they could wind-up tied at .500 with Western Washington -- provided WOU also loses to Lewis & Clark, but this would still eliminate Southern Oregon from the playoffs because...

Western Washington has one remaining chance to sneak into the playoffs at #6. If WOU loses twice and Linfield beats SOU, the Vikings would be tied with SOU at .500, and with no head-to-head or goal-differential between the two teams, this would go to the next at-large tie-breaker -- goal differential in all PNCLL B Games. I'll leave it to somebody from Western Washington or Southern Oregon to figure this differential out exactly for the time being. But WWU's 18-0 win over Albertson and very close B losses would surely tip the scales the Vikes way, and Western would have a third meeting in the playoffs at either PLU or UPS.

4/14 UPDATE: THIS IS NOT CORRECT!!!!!! See my post later in this thread. Western Washington is 5-4, NOT 5-5!!

Whew... that almost does it for the B division picture. The final wrinkle is determining the top two seeds. We had an unfortunate cancellation of this past weekend's Albertson at Montana game, due to unavailibilty of referees. This was not a forfeit, as both teams were prepared to play. It's just an unfortunate situation, nobody really is to blame, it would be wrong to punish either Montana or Albertson at all. But either Montana or Linfield could be disadvantaged if one team plays 8 and the other team only 7 games. I guess if Montana ends up 7-0 and Linfield finishes 8-0 the Executive Board will have to take the matter under advisement and make a ruling. My own feeling is that if this happens, we should give the top seed to Montana. The Grizzlies will have no losses to the PNCLL B division, while Linfield has a non-conference loss to PLU. Montana is currently #3 in the entire MDIA in Laxpower TSI as of today, while Linfield is 21st. I think everybody -- including Albertson and Linfield -- would agree that almost certainly Montana would beat Albertson again at home if the game could somehow be made-up, which it can't now given the distance between the schools. Feel free to weigh in if you feel differently, the Board hasn't discussed this yet, so we can all keep an open mind. Hopefully it won't matter, but it very well might if UM and LC win out...

Kyle will be along to disect the A Division playoff hunt. I need an a couple of aspirin.

Good luck to everybody this coming weekend. This has been a great PNCLL season so far, IMHO!

[ben012685]

Wow. Great write up, Dan. I appreciated it very much, especially the third and fourth time I read it.

PLU is getting ready for Saturday. Mentality is everything this week, as that was probably our weak spot in the previous game between the Loggers. I'm sure Kyle has his guys working just as hard.

Can't wait to play you guys again.

[WouMiddie]

So does everything pretty much stay the same for WOU if we win both our games. Is the highest seed we can earn the sixth?

[Peter Lewicki]

I'd rather play a home game in Walla Walla than a game in Tacoma. Good luck Whitman. The Montana game this weekend is crucial for you guys.

[woulax4]

I am pretty sure that if WOU wins both of their games it is possible for them to get as high as a 5 seed

[Kyle Berggren]

My math, which is often wrong, would say no, you're 6th. EVen with a 6-2 division record. UPS could finish with a 6-2 division record, and be a 5.... While Whitman could be 5-3 as a 4. The division records are really unimportant in the big picture.... Whitman won more non-division games, so did PLU and UPS.

[woulax4]

But if PLU loses to PSU, the Evergreen wins do not count for them with the at large which I think would make them 4-3, I could be wrong, and if WOU wins out they would have a 6-3 record and I believe they would get the 5th seed and PLU would get the 6th seed, please correct me if I am wrong as I could be.

[Kyle Berggren]

My understanding, and it seemed to be shared by the other people I've talked to, the non-divisional games for Evergreen don't count. The divisional games count. If we had scheduled Evergreen 8 times, only the divisional games would have counted.

[Dan Wishengrad]

if WOU wins out they would have a 6-3 record and I believe they would get the 5th seed and PLU would get the 6th seed, please correct me if I am wrong as I could be.

You are correct, WOUlax4 -- The Wolves could tie at 6-3 with UPS or with PLU. If this happens, I keep forgetting that goal differential in ALL B Games is the next tie-breaker in the at-large races if no head-to-head.

Somebody care to take the time to figure out the goal differential for WOU, UPS & PLU going into the weekend? Time for ME to go to work...

[woulax4]

I hope I did this right but these are the goal differentials for those three teams.

UPS +16
WOU +7
PLU +5

[Kyle Berggren]

Sorry for the delay in the A division preview,

Sunday, Idaho at Oregon.... Oregon seems to have finally found their legs, and that should mean trouble for the vandals. After showing very well in Michigan, they dismantled the Huskies 16-5 in Eugene. I'm sure Oregon would have liked to be playing their best all season, but peaking just as the playoffs begin should be a big Duck advantage. Idaho has had trouble scoring this year and will want to try to limit the Ducks scoring opportunities.

Saturday, Idaho takes on the Beavers. OSU has had tough luck this season, losing 3 divisional games by a total of 5 goals. Again, the Vandals will want to slow down the Beav's scoring, and somehow stop Tyler Tipton. He's averaging over 8ppg this season and will be very tough to slow down against an Idaho group that can't seem to keep the ball on the offensive end.

Our other Saturday game is Washington at Gonzaga. This game has some playoff implications. If the Huskies win, they finish 4-1 in division, tied with SFU, and we'll assume for sake of arguement, the Ducks. If not, They'll finish 3-2, tied with Gonzaga, and the playoffs would look like this.... as Gonzaga would own their tie breaker with the Huskies.

1. SFU
4. Washington

2. Oregon
3. Gonzaga

Gonzaga is coming off a big win against OSU, and UW is the opposite after leaving Eugene last weekend. As far as common opponents go, both teams have played the Ducks very recently, the Huskies losing by 11, and the Bulldogs by 9. Draw what you want from it, but the game should be a good one. I hope the weather is better in Spokane than it is here, Good luck to both teams.

On a side note, if UW wins, the playoffs would be slightly different.....

Oregon (4-1) +9
UW (4-1)+3
SFU (4-1) -10

The playoffs would be....

1. Oregon
4. Gonzaga

2. UW
3. SFU

the same!!!! I'm assuming goals is the tie breaker after head to head, tell me if I'm wrong... I've been way off with the playoff stuff so far, but this seems easier. Looks like these games won't have very much impact on the playoffs, just bragging rights and momentum.

[Dan Wishengrad]

I hope I did this right but these are the goal differentials for those three teams.

UPS +16
WOU +7
PLU +5

You did add up the G.D. correctly, woulax4, but without two 1-0 forfeits against Evergreen factored in. Since we are forced to use the two wins in the division record, and this division record forms part of the overall record counted for at-large consideration, it stands to reason that we must use the 1-0 official score. This would give the Lutes 2 more goals and make their G.D. = 7, tying PLU with WOU. Very interesting, but you guys have to win two games in this scenario and PLU has to lose for you both to finish 6-3 in B games. If that happens, WOU will win the G.D. because PLU's +7 would have to go down in a loss and yours would have to go up with 2 wins.

So boys and girls, WOU can indeed finish #5. Good catch woulax4. And good luck, too...

[Dan Wishengrad]

Kyle, you got it right, as far as I can tell.

Oregon State, however, can definitely play the spoiler in 2005. These playoff scenarios make for some "strange bedfellows". I'd imagine the Ducks are fighting back the urge to vomit while rooting hard for UW to beat Gonzaga this week -- it's the only way Oregon winds up #1 as Kyle discussed. The Huskies' only chance for #1 is to beat GU and have Oregon get upset by OSU next week (or by Idaho this week, but come on really!). So, if we win, we'll be rooting hard for the Beavers next week. weird!

On a related note, it seems that the PNCLL has become like the MDIA A Division as a whole. Oregon has clearly emerged as our "elite team", the early-season loss to SFU notwithstanding. In my mind the Ducks are definitely a Top 10 team, and it will be a big upset if SFU, UW or GU knocks off UO in the playoffs. The there are four teams (like the MDIA #15-25 teams) -- SFU, UW, GU and OSU that seem pretty evenly-matched, tough to pick amongst them and make sense of a true pecking order. Only our 14-2 win at SFU stands out amongst a bunch of close scores between the teams, and if we face the Clansmen again in BC in the post-season (which is highly likely) the rematch will be a different game and another Husky blowout is not likely. Oregon State is definitely our hard-luck team as noted: two one-goal losses at SFU and at Gonzaga without Beavers star Tyler Tipton in the lineup, and a close 17-14 loss at UW with Tip on the field scoring gobs of goals right and left (yep, he scored with his left you non-believers! .

Last thought: If we had opted for a ten-game conference schedule (home and away) instead of only five games, how different might the final regular-season standings look?

[teslax14]

If OSU were to play some of those games again with Tipton actually showing up, it would be a different story. I don't understand why Tipton doesn't show up for games. What is his deal? Sure seems like he is letting his team down by not showing up to big games in which they eventually lose.

[ZagGrad]

Apparently, he was at his sister's wedding instead of the GU game.