LaxTV Forums | A Forum About The MCLA

1 1 Colorado State 84.90 3 11- 2- 0
2 3 Michigan 83.46 8 9- 3- 0
3 2 Sonoma State 82.94 4 10- 1- 0
4 5 UC San Diego 81.28 6 9- 3- 0
5 6 Brigham Young 80.93 1 7- 5- 0
6 4 UC Santa Barbara 80.44 2 6- 5- 0
7 10 Cal Poly San Luis Obispo 80.17 13 9- 5- 0
8 7 Oregon 79.81 14 11- 4- 0
9 9 Florida State 79.75 29 14- 3- 0
10 11 Arizona 79.69 5 9- 4- 0
11 8 Colorado 78.41 7 9- 2- 0
12 20 Chapman 78.26 12 9- 7- 0
13 19 Northeastern 78.26 71 7- 1- 0
14 New Hampshire 77.97 89 3- 1- 0
15 14 Virginia Tech 77.73 36 7- 3- 0
16 12 Lindenwood 77.60 35 9- 2- 0

The first number on the left is Laxpower's ranking and the second number is the MDIA voters poll ranking. The next number is the teams overall worth number, the next is the strength of schedule, and finally obviously is the record. In my opinion, things that stand out are FSU's strength of schedule at 29th and New Hampshire being 14th overall even with a loss to Northeastern.

Just another example of why Laxpower's formula rankings aren't worth the piece of paper they're written on.

Why? Northeastern, New Hampshire and Chapman are the only teams greater than 3 spots from their actual ranking. For a system based purely on math, it seems to come decently close. After New Hampshire has played another 2 or 3 games, I'm sure they will be at a more sensible place reflecting how they have played.

Catlaxman, you have consistently expressed your distaste for Laxpower rankings. Yours is an opinion shared by others, and you are entitled to it. But others -- including me -- find these rankings useful, and I respectfully disagree. Sometimes Laxpower IS way off, like the example from 2004 you frequently cite here on this forum. But in other years Laxpower is dead-on accurate, in my opinion. What is so wrong with their rankings this year?

Yes, Laxpower has Cal-Poly, Chapman, Northeastern and New Hampshire higher than we pollsters have these teams. Laxpower also has Lindenwood four spots lower than the pollsters. But overall I'd say Laxpower rankings are fairly accurate this year, and they are especially useful (as always!) in comparing the 25-40 teams, those that are not ranked in the MDIA Top 25 poll. When you understand the Laxpower methodology -- especially that differences of .5 or less are statistically insignificant -- their rankings make even MORE sense. Right now for instance, the difference between their #7 (Poly at 80.17) and #10 (Arizona at 79.69) is within the margin of error, and says that these teams are statistically even in strength, along with #8 Oregon (79.81) and #9 Florida State (79.75) .

This holds true when you go deeper into the unranked pool of teams, also. Laxpower suggests that it is Georgia Tech and Texas that we pollsters have over-ranked this year. It also shows that Texas Tech -- which I had argued earlier was overranked -- is pretty deserving of their ranking, actually (sorry Raiders!). Go even deeper and you will find Gonzaga at #62 (68.97) and Washington at #65 (68.25). I find this pretty accurate also, that the Zags are slightly better than my Huskies but that our game in two weeks could be predicted to be a very close contest.

When I compare our numerical rating of 68.25 against the teams we have played, it says to me that Laxpower is pretty darn accurate this year:

Simon Fraser (75.24) 14 at Washington (68.25) 6 -- predicted winning margin of 9 minus a 1 pt home field advantage = exact 8 pt spread

Cal-Poly (80.17) 16 at Washington (68.25) 3 -- predicted winning margin of 12 minus a 1 pt home field advantage = just slightly off

Boise State (71.15) 8 at Washington (68.25) 7 -- predicted winning margin of 3 minus 1 pt home field adavntage = off by only one goal.

Oregon State (74.44) 9 at Washington (68.25) 4 -- predicted winning margin of 6 minus 1 pt home field advantage = exact 5 pt spread

Minnesota-Duluth (77.39) 12 at Washington (68.25) 5 -- predicted winning margin of 9 minus 1 pt home field advantage = off by only one goal.

These comparisons seem to hold true more often than they are off.

Clearly, Chapman, Northeastern & New Hampshire do not belong in the top 15. Poly should also be lower, probably about where our pollsters have them. I also would not have VA Tech as high as Laxpower rates them also, but they're probably not that far off on that one. Colorado should be somewhere in the top 10, not outside of it.

Actually, I think our pollsters consistently do a better job of ranking the teams in relation to each other a lot better than Laxpower can ever hope to do. It comes down to a trust situation as far as I am concerned. Laxpower has consistently proven that their rankings don't reflect the real world, so I have very little faith in them and have a hard time giving them much merit.

here is another fun thing the rpi:
1 Sonoma State 12 68.45 11- 1- 0
2 Colorado State 8 67.96 8- 0- 0
3 UC Santa Barbara 12 64.88 7- 5- 0
4 Brigham Young 9 63.95 6- 3- 0
5 Colorado 10 63.70 9- 1- 0
6 Michigan 11 63.66 10- 1- 0
7 UC San Diego 12 63.64 9- 3- 0
8 Florida State 14 61.72 13- 1- 0
9 Oakland 12 61.27 8- 4- 0
10 Arizona 12 61.23 8- 4- 0
11 Lindenwood 12 61.03 10- 2- 0
12 Cal Poly San Luis Obispo 14 60.70 9- 5- 0
13 Virginia Tech 11 59.62 8- 3- 0
14 Oregon 14 58.78 11- 3- 0
15 Georgia Tech 12 58.69 9- 3- 0
16 Minnesota - Duluth 10 58.42 7- 3- 0
17 UCLA 11 58.27 7- 4- 0
18 Northeastern 9 58.09 8- 1- 0
19 Chapman 17 57.53 10- 7- 0
20 Michigan State 14 57.37 9- 5- 0
21 Arizona State 12 57.30 7- 5- 0
22 Texas Tech 10 57.02 7- 3- 0
23 Georgia 10 56.92 8- 2- 0

The RPI is ridiculous

Thinks RPI is great!!.....LOL.....or at least as good as anything else....

RPI works for me.

The reason Laxpower doesn't work for MDIA teams is that it takes varsity games/scrimmages, etc. into consideration.

If there were no non-MDIA games input into their system, their results would be a lot more meaningful for the discussion that is taking place here.

With Chapman, they have no NCAA contests. Lax Power has them at #12, but the pollsters have them at #20. They have lost games this year that have definitely hurt them with the pollsters, but it is evident that they can play with teams in the top 10. Based on the poll, it doesn't appear that they have any chance of going to Dallas, but according to Lax Power they should be there.

Another reason why LaxPower can't be relied on. I think our pollsters have that right.

CATLAX MAN wrote:Another reason why LaxPower can't be relied on. I think our pollsters have that right.

Thats your opinion. I think anyone that completely ignores laxpower is ignoring a useful tool. Using it as more then a tool though is also a mistake.

wheelz33 wrote:...I think anyone that completely ignores laxpower is ignoring a useful tool. Using it as more then a tool though is also a mistake.

Well said.

What good is a tool that helps you get to the wrong answer???