Top 25 D2 results for Poll #1

[Andy Sharp]

Scooter, I'll give you an alternate explanation, not 100%, but there are plenty of polls to make corrections.

DePaul is a new addition and like Westminster last year, a voter doesn't always believe the hype until a poll/pollster tells them what others are thinking. I had Westminster #8 in Dec '06's pre-season poll, higher than most and I've got DePaul higher than most this year. Maybe everyone didn't read the leaves the same way I did, but this team from a talent rich city like Chicago with players from Ithaca, Cleveland, Detroit, Jersey, and MN; I like their odds better than some 83 other teams. Odds are a few more voters caught the last poll.

One possible explanation for Augustana is that word slowly got out that their coach who brought them to GRLC championship fame left. In our world of 5 qualified coaches competing for every job (not), this tends to take some time to recover from. Maybe these rumors seeped through the grapevine slower to voters than in an ideal situation where reporters hover over our teams and disclose all of our dirtiest secrets. This view could easily be proved wrong as games start, but the fact that Ethan is still listed as coach on their website is not a good indicator. (DePaul's lack of an updated website will join my tidbit collection as well)

Each of you likely have better access to some teams than each of us voters do and I for one would welcome clarification or tidbits on any team in any of your conferences. In case you're wondering, the private voters forum is full of insightful tidbits, in my dreams.

One bit I'll add, I doubt others take this into account, maybe they should . . . I also take a look at the size of a team's roster. A 12 man team can win on any given Sunday, but good luck in a 4 game in 5 day tournament in TX's hot sun. We are ranking who would be most qualified to make it to the later rounds if it was fully played out, aren't we?

[cubbiebears20]

But at the same time, Geographics are not everything anymore. Depaul is a first year team, has not had much interaction in this league and is bumpin in the polls. NMU beat them out at the NIU tournament in DeKalb IL, and then NMU barely losing to D1 Illinois state and NMU is still trying to fight for recognition. I guess the one argument that was laid out here is that of earning your spot instead of just being given it.

A lot of these teams have earned themselves their spot, but even Coastal Carolina at 6-0 hasnt been seen, and UW- Eau Claire didn't knock off some horrible teams, Ferris and Nothern Michigan have been very solid programs.

[Andy Sharp]

Just offering some other possible reasoning for the +5, -2 moves, not trying to justify the whole poll. My votes are only 3% of all votes and trust me, my poll does not match the one published.

A win by Coastal Carolina vs #9 SCAD on 3/14 would turn some heads. The fact that they have zero OOC games limits their chance of qualifying. Running the SELC table is their only possibility and they've got some big obstacles.

A win by UWEC vs #16 Grand Valley on 3/30 would also be impressive, though the scheduling might contaminate things a bit. If they stay the 3rd team in the UMLL it would be a stretch to qualify without beating both Northern Colorado and Grand Valley.

I could go all night, definitely makes for an exciting year.

[Gvlax]

A win by UWEC vs #16 Grand Valley on 3/30 would also be impressive, though the scheduling might contaminate things a bit. If they stay the 3rd team in the UMLL it would be a stretch to qualify without beating both Northern Colorado and Grand Valley.

I could go all night, definitely makes for an exciting year.

Just to clarify the UWEC vs GVSU is happening on 3/29, its wrong on MCLA and will be changed.

[dgr01002]

GRLC teams for example

Augustana moves down 5
Depaul moves up 2

Neither have played a game to date. So can someone please explain to me how the hell a team drops 5 and another moves up 2 having never stepped foot on the field? I understand some teams play warrant them to move up in standings and some teams to drop (Creighton and WWU respectively), but seriously, how did this happen?

I also can easily chime in on this with regards to Augustana - I didn't even give their team a vote in pre-season. They violated the game report/roster rules in 2007. Go into www.mcla.us and look. Not one game report. Zero player stats. Just scores and W-L filed by their opponents.

Here is the Augustan team link:

http://www.mcla.us/team.cfm?conferencei ... &teamid=60

Now, if, for example, Augustana is serious about being taken seriously, then they need to show the MCLA why by following the rules. For pre-season polls, most coaches had zero to go off for the talent level going into 2008. If voters from other conferences cannot look at what a team has got, how they performed, why are they going to give them a vote?Hence, a non-vote. There are plenty of 5-3 teams in D2 from 2007 or better (CSM, UWEC, Elon, come to mind). So, that is how some teams move up or down. They had nothing to go off to KEEP some teams where they sat pre season.

[Jolly Roger]

Another explanation is that some pollsters could have had some teams underranked in their preseason polls. When these teams provided evidence of a higher ranking, these pollsters have moved them up. They can't move other teams with equal success on the field down, so an idle team takes the hit. The inverse can be true as well causing an idle team to move up.

Once everyone gets 4-5 games played, the bumps in the poll will level out.

[bjlaxman16]

I don't believe we have a cold weather problem... we have a biased preseason polling problem... move it later in the season so ranking are based on win and losses and not on what this last poll... St. J and St. T (I suspect) make those early trips to be viable in polls and get experience... they wouldn't have to travel and might host some games if they didn't have to fight with a poll system that punishes teams who haven't started their season... it would be in their benefit to know that they are not missing anything... and that before the polls take place they knew their wins and losses would stack up with everybody else... (i.e. augustana)

I hope I'm not putting words in your mouth, but in no way do SJU or UST schedule early OOC games just to stay high in the early polls (I could care less about the polls). Like Lars said, we have to keep the later half of our season open for conference games which leaves us with the first half of the season. It seems like the warmer climate teams have much more games overall than colder climate teams because they can start playing outdoors earlier, which makes it hard sometimes to schedule games with them past mid march. And hosting games that early is just about out of the question for us (see below).

not trying to play whose got it worse but we get a middle school gym... yeah.
I wasn't implying in my last post that your practices were in domed fields but if you count the domes in Minn or Wisconsin compared to MI i would bet there is more available to Minn and Wisc. then MI.

You're right, we don't practice in domed fields. I'm sure UST has the same type of field we have to play on, that hard rubber surface (which is impossible to work on GBs/man balls because as soon as the ball hits the ground it's half way across the field or spins in the opposite direction). But the question isn't how many domes we have, it's how available are these domes. Just look at the OOC games that the UMLL was able to schedule for last weekend and this weekend. Although we have around 15 domes in MN, several of these games had to be scheduled between 1am and 7am because that was the only time available. And I would find it hard to believe that many teams would honestly have their first choice for OOC games be in a cold dome at 3 in the morning.

[Dr. Jason Stockton]

Another explanation is that some pollsters could have had some teams underranked in their preseason polls. When these teams provided evidence of a higher ranking, these pollsters have moved them up. They can't move other teams with equal success on the field down, so an idle team takes the hit. The inverse can be true as well causing an idle team to move up.

Best, most logical and simple explanation so far. . .I'm buying stock in this one. . .

[GrizLens]

Best, most logical and simple explanation so far. . .I'm buying stock in this one. . .

Occam's razor strikes again...

[scooter]

Another explanation is that some pollsters could have had some teams underranked in their preseason polls. When these teams provided evidence of a higher ranking, these pollsters have moved them up. They can't move other teams with equal success on the field down, so an idle team takes the hit. The inverse can be true as well causing an idle team to move up.

What evidence has either Augustana or Depaul provided to warrant being moved up or down? My answer is none. So either the voters have taken stock in Depaul's success during fall ball, or Augustana's coach leaving (but I hear they got a very successful and promising one back). Either way, I still feel the voters really messed this up.

[Matt_Gardiner]

Scooter,

The very early polls just are not that scientific. There is not a lot of data to use. Opinions can change over the months. Weird things can happen. I know in my poll that I moved Grand Valley up because of the win against Central Michigan, but I also moved Carnegie Mellon back a few spots. Why did I do this, because I was shuffling things to adjust for some of the teams that have performed differently than expected and needed to be shifted in the polls.

Carnegie Mellon may have lost some points from me in this poll, but it has no bearing on where they will be placed in the following polls. It is just sorta what happened because there is no evidence from the 2008 season to support 80% of the teams positions. There are going to be weird fluctuations like this when the poll position is based off of past performances, best guesses, etc. I am sure Carnegie Mellon does not like hearing that they backslid in my poll, but ultimately it is meaningless as everything will be re-evaluated as teams begin to get more games and CMU will be placed where they should be based on the 2008 season.

I understand you do not like to see teams moving without playing any games, but I was wondering would you argue the same that DePaul is not a #21 ranked team, but should be a #23 ranked team or would you argue that Augustana is not a #22 ranked team but should be a #17 ranked team. Not arguing about movement, but would you argue that any of the teams are mis-slotted in the polls. Opinions vary, at this point in the season very few pollsters have a poll that matches the actual top 25. There is just not enough evidence to create a consistent top 25 among voters. The poll just helps even it all out. That is why there are so many teams receiving votes at this point in time.

I know DePaul is a good team with some buzz, but until they play at least 1 game in the MCLA they will not have a ton of support for the top ten or top fifteen. Some pollsters will put them there, but certainly not most. Dayton and Westminster had the same thing there first year in the MCLA.

[scooter]

Matt,

As hard as it may be to believe me, I actually think that Depaul is a top 10 team, and my favorite to win the GRLC. They showed they can hang with the big boys at the Mad City Classic and the NIU tourny. However, not many others in the league have seen Depaul play.

My issue is them moving up now, and not in the preseaon poll. Its hard for anyone to argue that Augustana is not a top 20 team, at this point in the season. They made it Nationals two seasons ago, and lost in the conference championship to a very good Harding team last season. I know the past is the past, and some would argue none of that should have any bearing on this seasons poll. But they have done nothing on the field to show they are undeserving of vote.

Augustana's preseason rank of 18 I felt was about right, and Depaul was ranked far too low in my opinion, but I'm not a voter. My biggest issue is the movement of the two teams, neither of which have played a game yet, by people have not seen, and probably not even heard much about either squad this season.

I feel like if Depaul were to get voter love, it should have been in the preseason poll, and not this one; considering they have not once taken the field in a regulation game. I feel the same way about Augustana. If the voters put them in the 16-20 range preseason, that's where they should stay unless other teams show they belong ahead of them (i.e. Creighton). For Augustana to fall 5 spots and Depaul to move up 2 is ridiculous in my mind.

[Michael Martin]

When I saw the movement of Augustana and Depaul in the recent poll, my first thought was this will generate a multiple page response without resolution. Polling is still an inexact "science" and trying to rank teams yet to play a game really is pushing the limit. Soon there will be actual game results to discuss instead of intangibles.

[Jolly Roger]

What evidence has either Augustana or Depaul provided to warrant being moved up or down?

In my explanantion, evidence about those specific teams doesn't warrant the move. It's a result of lack of data in both the preseason poll (poorly placed teams) and so far in the season (not all teams have played to date). Their movement is a reaction to what the pollsters perceive as necessary movement of active teams.

[USTLAX06]

Scooter,

I think I'm seeing this argument both ways. I checked the GRLC schedule and I think a lot of questions will be cleared up based on what will take place this weekend. Hopefully those results will provide clarity for future polls.

I believe you are tied closely to some GRLC teams (maybe I'm full of it though). If you could help get a bit of info on the games and update the message boards then I'm sure a lot of the assumptions will be cleared up. Any reporting you could get on the forums will help shape a picture of exactly where these teams stand. I'm not sure if you have the capacity to do that, but I think it could help the voters clear up the GRLC.