4th MDIA Div. A Poll (4/6/05). Thoughts, Predictions, etc.

[CATLAX MAN]

The big difference is that BC lost to a much lower ranked team whereas UCSD has not. FSU dropped after their loss to Minnesota and BC should expect the same.

[WaterBoy]

Agreed, CATLAX. I think there is little question that the PCLL is somewhat more even when it comes to their top three teams. It seems as though UNH and BC are fairly evenly matched, with Northeastern trailing behind the other two.

It's always hard to justify (not impossible) keeping team A above team B when B has beaten A.

Just for entertainment purposes- I'll take a look at which teams have lost to lower ranked teams in the current rankings.

#3 BYU loss @ #7 Arizona
#9 Boston College @ #23 New Hampshire
#10 Oregon vs. #26 Simon Fraser
#12 FSU vs #25 Minnesota
#17 Chico State vs. #26 Simon Fraser
#20 Minnesota-Duluth vs. #24 Miami-OH
#24 New Hampshire vs. UR Cal
#25 Minnesota @ UR Auburn

That was all I could come up with, just looking through the results at laxpower. The biggest differentials coming from an early season Oregon loss against Simon Fraser, and a week-old BC loss against UNH. Oregon, however, has the results from the rest of their season to justify their high ranking)

[Daniel Morris]

Just so all of you know, UNH/BC is a big time rivalry here in the PCLL. UNH could have been ranked 50th in the country and BC Top 5 and they still would have been a danger to beat them. UNH has beaten BC three seasons in a row now during the regular season, only to be defeated the last two years in the playoffs, with this season still pending. I don't remember the margins, but last year BC had the finals well in hand. I don't think BC should drop more than a spot or two in the rankings, if at all based on the other teams in their vicinity.

My point is, like in all sports and especially college, heated rivalries add some unknown factor to the game. Some weird mystical force can turn juggernauts into beatable programs and make huge underdogs into champions. We'll see how this plays out in the playoffs and if history threepeats itself.

It will be interesting to see how much this mismatch affects Oakland in the polls. They've been holding on to a fairly lofty ranking based primarily on history - the fact that they beat Michigan last year and won the CCLA. They also had yet to lose this year. Looking back though, they beat Pitt by 1 and had a solid win over Indiana. The rest of the schedule doesn't blow you back.
So in their first big test, they came up woefully short and I think the pollsters have been looking for reasons to shake things up a little.

To respond to something Trevor McCourt was getting at and laxfan25 said in a seperate post, Oakland's loss was an utter washout. Scoring only one goal against a team only three spots ahead of you in loss by 10 on a neutral site? I think Michigan has a great team this season, but such domination will make me give Oakland second looks when I vote in the next poll. I don't see this being any better than a one goal loss by BC to UNH. If BC does move down, I have to believe Oakland will as well. But then, who moves up?

[Dan Wishengrad]

But then, who moves up?

If BC and Oakland drop a few spots each in the polls, then Oregon and Utah could/should be the primary beneficiaries.

[Rad44]

One thing is encouraging- teams ranked #7/8 - #12 are proving to be really solid teams. Outside of this margin, on the backend (#13-25), its up in the air, but I believe the teams you see here now, are going to be pretty evenly matched for the rest of the season.

I can't see BC falling more than 1 or 2 as Dan mentioned, considering that other teams in the same vacinity lost as well. As seems to be the case, time will tell, and nationally speaking, people will begin to notice UNH. A #23 ranking is not accurate. Despite their loss to Cal, the team is fast, has a strong D and great inbetween the boxes. If we could escape the perception that the PCLL is not that strong, perhaps UNH would receive a bit more attention.

Although I hate stats from previous years, BC has lost to UNH in the previous 2 seasons as well. Last year's final was a blowout by BC. The games are always aggressive, always at a high speed and always fun to watch. Start thinking about it as we all look at Oakland and UM. Although the ranking differencial is vastly different, the matchups are always close and could go either way on any day. Nature of good competition.

[CATLAX MAN]

Can't agree with that. If history has told us anything, a late season loss to a much lower ranked or unranked team usually drops a team more than 1 or 2 spots. That loss has to also be put in context with the record of the team it lost to. That is where the UNH's loss to Cal is taints the record of BC also. I would expect a drop of more thatn 1 or 2 spots.

[ACE]

UNH barely escaped out of the LSA earlier too. They won but that's not saying much against a weak LSA. I'm sure the "They only practiced 3 times in the gym" comments are coming out, but UNH is not a top 20 team. So what does that say for BC?

[onpoint]

The biggest problem for Oakland is that they really don't have any other tough games on their schedule to measure them by. Early season games vs. the LSA are hard to use as a guage at this point in the year. They need a very strong showing in the CCLA's to make sure they don't fall out of contention, but I still see them as an at-large bid. . .

[TMcCourt]

Oakland didnt exactly destroy the LSA, granted they won more convincingly than UNH but no one is saying that UNH is better than Oakland, just that they upset BC is a game in overtime. A lot of upsets tend to be in OT because as rivalry games they are not always indicative of team levels (see oakland michigan last year). BC was in front of a loud, hometown UNH crowd and did not get their heads in it until the fourth quater in which they erased a three goal deficite to tie it up. The OT consistented of a face off procedural call, and 30 seconds before UNH won. BC did not play their best, however that is how losses come.

UNH vs. BC isn't the question though, the question is what is worse, one goal losses to ranked teams below you(BC vs. UNH, FSU vs. Minn) or a very one sided blowout by a higher ranked team (3 spots ahead, Oak v. Mich). I do not know, neither is a good thing to have come voting day.

[CATLAX MAN]

. . .neither is a good thing to have come voting day.

Exactly.

[Rad44]

A drop is certain, generally, but all the teams close in ranking lost as well, which makes this particular situation unique and could result in a small dropoff. A more dramatic loss would not be a surprise though either as CATLAX mentioned.

Although UNH was not a top 20 team, THEY WOULD BEAT SOME TOP 20 TEAMS!! They would have beaten Texas last year in the tourney, as well as Missouri. They had a medicore showing against the LSA, but that was the first real few weeks after a long, constricting winter- so what, they won.

Teams lose, get use to it. Hands down the NE Patriots were the most dominant team in the NFL (With a loss to Miami, one of the worst). Does that take away from their talent, Super Bowl victory or reputation as the best team in the league- no way!

Losses by some of the top 10 or so teams will hurt their rankings for sure, but I just don't see it being too dramatic. The #15-25 teams just don't look strong enough to make a convincing argument, very generally speaking, to push #13/14 or higher, thus knocking some other teams (BC, FSU, Oregon, etc.) out.

[Albert Man]

With still some more games to come this weekend, this next poll will be very difficult. While ranked high, Oakland and BC rose as other teams fell due to losses and were in a situations where they are ranked there until proven otherwise... Oregon dropped from their early season loss to SFU, but bounced back with strong showings against ranked teams. UCSD has not been upset and have beaten all 3 teams it faced in that 8-20 ranking. FSU dropped from their loss to Minn, but bounced back with a strong win vs Vtech. Oakland and BC both had softer schedules than most other teams in the top 20, so a loss does hurt them as they did not have as many chances to prove themselves against the other teams of similar rankings. Also the spots right below them, Oregon, UCSD, FSU are a virtual tie interms of number of votes. So a 3-5 spot drop is not out of the question. Look at what happened to VTech.

[jessexy]

i think oakland drops several spots. the difference in the #5 place and the #8 place shouldnt be 10 goals and barely avoiding the shutout. that being said, im not so sure that the teams behind Oakland (#9-12) wouldve done any better than the grizzlies. but they should drop.

[teslax14]

Jessexy said [that being said, im not so sure that the teams behind Oakland (#9-12) wouldve done any better than the grizzlies.]

I'm pretty sure #10 Oregon, played michigan a game into overtime. So yes those teams behind the grizzlies can do much better

[BClax16]

If history has told us anything, a late season loss to a much lower ranked or unranked team usually drops a team more than 1 or 2 spots.

Thankfully it is really not a late season loss for BC, the UNH game was the start of a 5 games in 7 days stretch in which BC when 4-1 (granted the only other ranked team was Pitt) beating Pitt, Bridgewater State 14-6 (who lost to Pitt by 2), URI 18-5 (with a though OT loss to a dissapointing SFU team), and Stonehill.

With four games left to go, one against a tough northeastern team, BC has plenty of chances to redeem their loss.

With all that said their presence in MN will most likely rely on thier performance in the PCLL tournament.