May 2nd Poll

[Daniel Morris]

This is how I see it right now.

1. BYU
2. CSU
3. Oregon
4. UCSB
5. Arizona
6. Colorado
7. ASU
8. Michigan
9. UMD
10. BC
11. Sonoma
12. Georgia
13. Florida
14. TAMU
15. Northeastern
16. FSU..............(out)
17. Lindenwood
18. Utah.............(out)
19. V Tech..........(out)
20. Cal Poly........(out)

Unless Utah can pull something together, those are the final 16.

I think you actually have NU ranked too low. They lost twice this year, by one goal each time to the PCLL champs, the woefully undervalued Boston College, whose only loss comes to UCSB by three goals. I would put NU at 13 in your list, knocking the other teams down a notch.

[Beta]

Lindenwood and UGA have played only 1 similar opponent (Auburn), with UGA winning by 12, and Lindenwood by 5. Both of LU's Top 25 wins come against a mediocre (no disrespect) Illinois team. UGA had 2 wins against GT (ranked, but we'll say "average" for argument's sake) but also against UF and VT, both top 15 at the time (I beleive).

The only top 10 team UGA played was FSU (#9 at the time) and lost by 1, in the first game of the season. Not to compare CSU and FSU. At some point the SOS argument has to include WINS for it to hold any backing.

It's awesome when teams schedule tons of top 10 talent (see: Utah) but at some point you gotta pull off some W's to get rewarded for it (see also: Utah).

[yourmom]

I just think LU got looked over after playing CSU to within a goal of what was a back and forth battle. That goal came with less than 3 mins left and CSU did a good job killing the clock. Granted a loss is a loss, but it seems like It was completely ignored. The fact that LU has shown they can hang with a team that caliber says alot in my mind even if it wasn't a win. Georgia has yet to be tested with a top 10 team.

i think a lot of why lindenwood has remained as high in the polls all year is because of that game you mentioned

I would probobly agree with you. But what I don't understand is the 16 and 17 spot that they have posted in this thread. I am not saying that the #13 spot is wrong in the real poll.

[Woda]

Tier 1 - Obvious rankings
1. BYU - The best so far
2. CSU - Big wins, no losses outside top 3
3. Oregon - Very big wins, but back to back losses to ASU and Colorado hurts

Tier 2 - Comparable wins / losses - looked at head to head
4. UCSB - Beat Colorado and Zona
5. Colorado - Beat Zona
6. Arizona - Lost to both UCSB and Colorado

Tier 3 - One of these team will make the Final 4
7. ASU - Big wins Oregon, Michigan, big losses Z
8. UMD - One goal games to BYU/CSU away proves they can play with the best, but that Utah loss =
9. Michigan - Loss at home to ASU, and results from similar opponents as UMD were not as good. Haven't proven they can play with a top 5 team. Wins over NCAA is always tough to read.

Tier 4 - Conference champs
10. BC - Big wins over NU, and close game with UCSB
11. Georgia - Big wins in SELC tourney.
12. TAMU - Big win over Colorado, but Weak conference, and losses to ASU and AZ hurt

Tier 5 - Deserve to go to nationals
13. Florida - Good season, but loss to VT hurts.
14. Sonoma - No win inside of the top 18, but close games to BYU and Oregon prove they can play with the best.
15. Northeastern - Big win by 6 over Zona, but losses to BC hurt
16. Lindenwood - No big wins, but no big losses, hard to judge, close game to CSU and michigan proves they can play at a high level.

[scooter]

UCSB- whooped by Chapman

[Woda]

UCSB- whooped by Chapman

I really thought of that but each of those teams have had a surprizing loss:

Colorado - Texas A/M
UCSB - Utah / Chapman
Arizona - Northeastern

So taking that into account, they have all had big wins / losses, so I figure Colorado and Arizona both had their chance to prove they were better than UCSB when they played, and they lost. So I looked at the head - head.

[scooter]

i still say UMD should be top 5.....

[PSLguy]

This is a year where the order of the bottom half of the seedings can really have significant second day implications at the tournament for those teams. I think that just about any of the teams 9 to 16 could beat one of the teams 3-8 (whomever they may be). The results from season games seem to bare this out There's a lot to be said for playing against a talented yet seemingly fallable CU, UCSB, Zona, or UMD versus Oregon, CSU, or BYU on the first day. In the past these bottom teams didn't have much of a chance past the second day anyway. But this year just having a slightly more favorable seed could get one bottom team into the 3rd day or beyond.

From Woda's seeds:

I think 12 is too high for TAMU. Yes they beat CU...in the second game of CU's season. Obviously a win is a win, but when you compare it to other big wins by other teams further into the season it can't hold this much water. One goal victory against unranked texas in the LSA's puts them at 16 in my book.

Sonoma has obviously been overrated all season long but I'd only drop them to 12.

I don't see why Northeastern should lose 4 seeds for a 1 goal last second loss to BC, and how flukey can a 6 goal victory be over Zona in their 3rd week of the season with several top 25 games in hand and NU's first. I'd put them at 13 and bump UF to 14 leaving lindenwood at 15.
[/quote]

[LaxZac02]

This is how I see it right now.

1. BYU
2. CSU
3. Oregon
4. UCSB
5. Arizona
6. Colorado
7. ASU
8. Michigan
9. UMD
10. BC
11. Sonoma
12. Georgia
13. Florida
14. TAMU
15. Northeastern
16. FSU..............(out)
17. Lindenwood
18. Utah.............(out)
19. V Tech..........(out)
20. Cal Poly........(out)

Unless Utah can pull something together, those are the final 16.

I think you actually have NU ranked too low. They lost twice this year, by one goal each time to the PCLL champs, the woefully undervalued Boston College, whose only loss comes to UCSB by three goals. I would put NU at 13 in your list, knocking the other teams down a notch.

Seconded

[LaxC21]

PSLguy....lets look at this objectively if possible. First off, the game was not a one point win for the Aggies. Secondly, they lost to two teams ranked ahead of them in the season allowing them to finish 14-2 with a win over CU and losses to Arizona and Arizona State. Thirdly, if A&M would have started off in the top 25 in the beginning of the season, I don't think we would be having the discussion of A&M being 12 or 16 in the last poll of the season. They would have gotten the benefit of the doubt.

Understandably, A&M is a question mark because of its 4 year absence, but if you have seen them play you would think differently. They are young and therefore are still developing their game. They are a team of two halves. Most notably, against CU, they were leading by 4 or 5 at half before letting CU back in it. Given, this was an early game by CU, but as you said, a win is a win. Against Texas last weekend, they were leading 11-4 at half before coming out flat, which seems to be their nature this season. However, in both games, they showed poise at the end and were able to finish the games.

If, and it’s a big if, A&M can put a complete game together, they will be able to compete well at nationals and possibly pull out an upset in the first round. They are as talented (athletically without a doubt), if not more talented than some of the teams sitting 7-15. Their biggest disadvantage is maturity and lack of experience at the national tournament. With that said, I don't think 12 is too high, but do think 16 is to far back. I believe A&M could be dangerous if they can possibly pull CU, UCSB, or Michigan in the first round. But, that is just my two cents.

[WestCoastLax15]

This is how I see it right now.

1. BYU
2. CSU
3. Oregon
4. UCSB
5. Arizona
6. Colorado
7. ASU
8. Michigan
9. UMD
10. BC
11. Sonoma
12. Georgia
13. Florida
14. TAMU
15. Northeastern
16. FSU..............(out)
17. Lindenwood
18. Utah.............(out)
19. V Tech..........(out)
20. Cal Poly........(out)

Unless Utah can pull something together, those are the final 16.

This one looks pretty spot on to me. I think Michigan and ASU might switch spots just because Michigan hasn't done anything to really warrant a 4 spot drop, and ASU had the loss to UCSB. But other than that it looks good.

I don't think Michigan should be ranked higher than ASU. It's not a matter of a 4 spot drop being warranted for them; it's a matter of what they have done to get ranked there in the first place THIS SEASON. On top of that Michigan lost to ASU in Oosterbaan and we all know how often that happens.

Before this last weekend I really didn't think that Sonoma would hurt themselves as much as they ended up doing even though I've thought for a while they were ranked too high. I think people were expecting/hoping they could validate their ranking in the top 8 but they failed to do so with Arizona's rout in the Semis and they should probably drop to the 10-12 range considering the resume they have compared to some of the other teams in that range.

[Woda]

I don't see why Northeastern should lose 4 seeds for a 1 goal last second loss to BC

See this is the kind of rational that is wrong with people when they complete their polls, you need to look at what ALL the teams have done, not just one. Even if a team goes basically idle all year winning against non ranked teams (ie Texas A/M or UMD), they could rise or fall in the polls because of other teams performances. Northeastern will drop in the polls not just because they lost, but because of what other teams have done too.

[PSLguy]

See this is the kind of rational that is wrong with people when they complete their polls, you need to look at what ALL the teams have done, not just one.

I was discussing specifically the rankings between 12 and 16 and I gave reasons for each slot just as you did. In the sample I looked at each team and I accounted for the impact of other recent top teams as I saw applicable to that range (sonoma). I understand that rankings are co-dependant and that teams drop and rise for what happens elsewhere on the board. Just because I haven't written down my complete thought process doesn't mean I don't have one.

Understandably, A&M is a question mark because of its 4 year absence, but if you have seen them play you would think differently

This may be true, and you could probably say this about any team in that range. That was what my first paragraph was about. In my estimation that is where TAMU would go that's all.

[Ravaging Beast]

I have discussed this many times on the message boards. I believe that teams with a high SOS will do better at the tournament and should be given credit for scheduling those games. However, it is not enough to just schedule the tough games. You must also win them. Quality wins with a tough schedule should get you higher in the polls. So I am posting SOS from laxpower and a quality win ranking system that is similar to the one they use for the NCAA. I did this for the last poll, and I think it pointed out some valid points about teams that were ranked too high and too low (ie Sonoma, BC, and NU).

Laxpower S.O.S.:
Rankings in parentheses. Bold means much lower SOS than poll ranking and italics means much higher SOS than poll ranking.

1 Brigham Young (1)
2 Colorado State (2)
3 Chapman (NR)
4 UC San Diego (NR)
5 Colorado (5)
6 Arizona (8 )
7 Arizona State (10)
8 UC Santa Barbara (9)
9 San Diego (NR)
10 Utah (18 )
11 Sonoma State (6)
12 Michigan (4)
13 Boise State (NR)
14 Oregon (3)
15 San Diego State (NR)
16 Oregon State (NR)
17 Loyola Marymount (NR)
18 Cal Poly - SLO (20)
19 Chico State (NR)
20 Georgia Tech (21)

Complete list at http://www.laxpower.com/update07/binmen/sos05.php

Quality wins also can be a major factor in determining poll rankings. I calculated this for the top 20 teams because I don't expect it to do much for any teams with a lower ranking. I used current rankings, and gave 4 points for 1-5 win, 3 points for 6-10 win, 2 points for 11-15 win, and 1 point for 16-20. This took me a while to do, so let me know if I messed up. And double check your work too. Will update after this weekend.

rank/team/total points/current rank
1. BYU - 28 (1)
2. CSU - 20 (2)
3. Oregon - 15 (3)
4. UCSB - 13 (9)
5. Colorado - 10 (5)
6. Arizona - 10 (8 )
7. ASU - 10 (10)
8. Utah - 6 (18 )
9. Michigan - 5 (4)
10. Florida - 4 (14)
11. Boston College - 4 (15)
12. Texas A&M - 4 (16)
13. Sonoma State - 3 (6)
14. Minnesota Duluth - 3 (7)
15. Northeastern - 3 (11)
16. Georgia - 3 (12)
17. FSU - 3 (17)
18. Va Tech - 2 (19)
19. Cal Poly - 2 (20)
20. Lindenwood - 0 (13)

I like this because I feel like it really shows who can win against the good teams. Anyone can put together a cup cake schedule and win all their games, but that isn't going to cut it in Dallas. You need to show that you can beat the teams who are going to be there.

[Timbalaned]

I have discussed this many times on the message boards. I believe that teams with a high SOS will do better at the tournament and should be given credit for scheduling those games. However, it is not enough to just schedule the tough games. You must also win them. Quality wins with a tough schedule should get you higher in the polls. So I am posting SOS from laxpower and a quality win ranking system that is similar to the one they use for the NCAA. I did this for the last poll, and I think it pointed out some valid points about teams that were ranked too high and too low (ie Sonoma, BC, and NU).

Laxpower S.O.S.:
Rankings in parentheses. Bold means much lower SOS than poll ranking and italics means much higher SOS than poll ranking.

1 Brigham Young (1)
2 Colorado State (2)
3 Chapman (NR)
4 UC San Diego (NR)
5 Colorado (5)
6 Arizona (8 )
7 Arizona State (10)
8 UC Santa Barbara (9)
9 San Diego (NR)
10 Utah (18 )
11 Sonoma State (6)
12 Michigan (4)
13 Boise State (NR)
14 Oregon (3)
15 San Diego State (NR)
16 Oregon State (NR)
17 Loyola Marymount (NR)
18 Cal Poly - SLO (20)
19 Chico State (NR)
20 Georgia Tech (21)

Complete list at http://www.laxpower.com/update07/binmen/sos05.php

Quality wins also can be a major factor in determining poll rankings. I calculated this for the top 20 teams because I don't expect it to do much for any teams with a lower ranking. I used current rankings, and gave 4 points for 1-5 win, 3 points for 6-10 win, 2 points for 11-15 win, and 1 point for 16-20. This took me a while to do, so let me know if I messed up. And double check your work too. Will update after this weekend.

rank/team/total points/current rank
1. BYU - 28 (1)
2. CSU - 20 (2)
3. Oregon - 15 (3)
4. UCSB - 13 (9)
5. Colorado - 10 (5)
6. Arizona - 10 (8 )
7. ASU - 10 (10)
8. Utah - 6 (18 )
9. Michigan - 5 (4)
10. Florida - 4 (14)
11. Boston College - 4 (15)
12. Texas A&M - 4 (16)
13. Sonoma State - 3 (6)
14. Minnesota Duluth - 3 (7)
15. Northeastern - 3 (11)
16. Georgia - 3 (12)
17. FSU - 3 (17)
18. Va Tech - 2 (19)
19. Cal Poly - 2 (20)
20. Lindenwood - 0 (13)

I like this because I feel like it really shows who can win against the good teams. Anyone can put together a cup cake schedule and win all their games, but that isn't going to cut it in Dallas. You need to show that you can beat the teams who are going to be there.

Agree with you about the SOS, but if you can look at it from out of conference it would tell a better story. Oregon probably has the toughest OCC schedule, or at least one of them, but the comparably weak PNCLL brings their overall SOS schedule down.