Who really deserves to go to Blaine...

[CATLAX MAN]

9-1 at the half. No real reason to watch the rest of this game. It's all BYU. I didn't see anything that makes me think that Utah belomgs at the tourney. Unless they come up with a huge upset in the RMLC playoffs, they'll be at home.

[DG]

9-1 at the half. No real reason to watch the rest of this game. It's all BYU. I didn't see anything that makes me think that Utah belomgs at the tourney. Unless they come up with a huge upset in the RMLC playoffs, they'll be at home.

14-6 with 2 minutes to go. Utah played much better in the 2nd half.

[eplsoccer77]

so how about chico....they just ran over cal poly.....they seem like a good enough squad to make it to nationals. they are a good team with solid players and ive seen them in action and the only reason i somewhat support them is because i like cheerin on the underdog and they are deff the underdog even tho they shouldnt be. I would like to see Chico play UCSD and then maybe Chico can get some respect. I would hate to be a player on their team just bc people dont respect them as a contender. In their last 7 games they have scored 82 goals and been scored on only 21 times. They are good and all im sayin is watch out if they make it to nationals.

[sweetlaxin18]

First of all Pitt was playing the number #8 and #9 teams in the country. They have both (Oakland and BC have both proved themseleves over the last couple of years) suffered losses in the last couple of weeks that have hurt their national rankings. Granted Oakland lost by a fair amount to Michigan this year, history and revenge are in their favor, Oakland will play an extremely competitive game, assuming both meet in the CCLA final. BC will almost certainly match up against the Wildcats of UNH in the final playoff game, and I feel that with the absence of two of the Eagles leading scorers in the previous rivalry matchup, BC will once again represent the PCLL at the national tournament. This is all in my opinion and up for total debate. I look very forward to seeing both "potential" league championship games and a competitive national tourney in Blaine.

[Bluevelvet]

Arizona's regular season is over. It is time to evaluate their claim to compete in the national championship in MN.

Arizona is an interesting team. They are 8-5. Their losses are to top 5 powerhouses SSU, Mich and UCSB twice. The loss to ASU really hurt them. But they have played 9 games against ranked opponents including 5 games vs top 5! They had some big wins which no other bubble team can boast. They beat #3 BYU, #8 UCSD, #13 Utah, #19 CPSLO, #20 Chapman. That is 5 wins vs. ranked teams and 2 wins vs. top 10! No other bubble team can boast that type of success vs. ranked teams.

#8 UCSD (12-2; 4-2) & #7 Oregon (9-4; 3-3) are in for all practical purposes. Va Tech is the SELC AQ.

I'm not sure that there will be 2 SELC teams in MN. #9 Florida St has played only 3 ranked opponents outside the SELC. UCSB, Sonoma and Minn. They lost to all 3. They beat GaTech and split with VaTech for a 2-4 record vs. ranked teams and 13-5 overall. Upset by #11 VaTech could move them down below #10 Arizona.

After the poor showing by Utah vs. BYU, I think Utah will fall out of contention. They are 11-4 and lost to Arizona as well as 4 other ranked teams and have only one win over #19 CPSLO for big wins. Probably moves down and out.

BC has played only 3 ranked teams and their only wins are over #17 and #23. They are 2-1 vs ranked teams with wins over #17 Chico and #22 Pitt by one. They must beat UNH to make it to MN.

#12 Oakland has 2 wins vs. ranked teams #23 Mich St and in OT over #22 Pitt. They lost to Michigan in a blow out, just like Arizona. If they get blown out again, forget it.

Chico might have a chance if they beat UCSB but lose in the final. They are 3-3 vs ranked teams with a one goal loss to Sonoma but an early loss to SFU could be costly.

Arizona has the #1 Strength of Schedule in the entire MDIA. Most other bubble teams have only 1 or 2 wins against against ranked teams. Those wins are against only low ranked top 25 teams. Arizona has beaten 5 ranked teams including 2 in the top 10. Despite their late season troubles, Arizona is a step above the other bubble teams. I hesitate to imagine what these other bubble teams won-lost records would look like with 9 games vs ranked teams and 6 games vs top 10. Three of the bubble teams have 5 losses AZ, FSU and Chico, Utah has 4 losses (probably 5 after the RMLC). BC and Oakland played much easier schedules. They only played 3 ranked teams each. Between the 2 of them (BC & Oak), #17 was the highest ranked team that they beat, the rest were in the 20's.

#10 Arizona:8-5 (since last poll-lost to #5 UCSB by 6)
SOS #1
vs ranked teams: 5-4
vs top 10: 2-4

#9 FSU: 13-5 (since last poll-upset by #11 VaTech)
SOS #28
vs ranked teams: 2-4
vs top 10: 0-2

#12 Oakland: 12-2 (since last poll no ranked opp.)
SOS #25
vs ranked teams: 2-1
vs top10: 0-1

#13 Utah 11-4 (since last poll-lost to #3 BYU by 9)
SOS #35
Vs ranked teams:1-4
Vs top 10: 0-4

#14 BC 9-1 (since last poll no ranked opp.)
SOS #56
vs ranked teams:2-1
vs top 10: 0-0

#17 Chico 10-5 (since last poll-beat #19 Cal Poly by 5)
SOS #13
vs ranked teams: 3-3
vs top 10 teams: 0-2

[AVLax]

With such a tight race for the WCLL do you think that if CHICO has a good showing against UCSB that there could be 5 teams from the WCLL or is it between Zona and Chico for that 4 spot? I wouldn't want to be a voter.

[Laxer]

Arizona will go for sure. It will be hard for Chico to move from #17 to #13 off a close lose. I don't think chico will make it despite their great season (unless they beat UCSB)

[DG]

Nice look at the bubble, Bluevelvet. One thing I will say is that I think those laxpower SOS #s are bogus. Colorado had the #41 toughest schedule in the country? They had a couple of easy games, but played BYU, CSU, Michigan and Oregon. Oakland has the #26 ranked SOS, and they only played 3 ranked teams, including Michigan. I don't buy the numbers.

That said, I think AZ had the toughest schedule in the country and fared pretty well. All things being equal, the BYU win is their ticket to Blaine. I think they do deserve to go, even with the ASU loss. I still don't understand that game, but I guess the 11-4 loss to UCSB makes things a little more clear. AZ hasn't played that well of late.

Regarding Utah...I don't think that Utah's loss to BYU is any worse than the 11-4 loss that AZ took vs. UCSB. If the Utes play against CSU like they did in the 2nd half vs. BYU, and keep things close on the scoreboard, they may make it after all. I think they have a good team, and would be very competetive with UCSD, FSU, BC, and whoever else is on the bubble.

What someone needs to explain to me is how UCSD is ranked #8. They lost both of their games to top 10 competition, including a fairly big loss vs UCSB. Their other wins over top 20 teams look a lot less stellar after seeing the SELC playoffs (GT out in semis) and WCLL playoffs (Poly out in quarters). According to laxpower they have the #13 toughest schedule in the country? I still don't buy the Laxpower rankings there. I think the Sonoma score will have a huge impact on UCSD's ranking. If they get blown out, they will drop. The drop won't just be based on the result vs. Sonoma, but it will be based on the previous result vs. Chapman. I don't have anything against the Tritons (a very cool mascot) and hope they make it to Blaine...I just don't understand how they got where they are.

I'm not sure that there will be 2 SELC teams in MN. #9 Florida St has played only 3 ranked opponents outside the SELC. UCSB, Sonoma and Minn. They lost to all 3. They beat GaTech and split with VaTech for a 2-4 record vs. ranked teams and 13-5 overall. Upset by #11 VaTech could move them down below #10 Arizona.

I actually think that FSU will drop, and maybe below AZ, but not by much. There's a chance that they move to #11 or #12, still leaving them in the hunt.

Next weekend will be the biggest of the year. I can't wait to see the results.

DG

[onpoint]

Here is my problem with Arizona. Their games since their win against BYU:

223 H Brigham Young 9- 8
302 H Michigan 1-12
306 H UCLA 9- 3
312 A San Diego State 9- 7
313 A UC San Diego 12-11 o
325 H Chapman 7- 6
409 A UC Santa Barbara 6-10
410 A Cal Poly San Luis Obis 8- 5
416 H Arizona State 7- 9
423 A UC Santa Barbara 5-11

This is a team that has gotten WORSE over the season. People are talking about UCSD's close win to Chapman this weekend, but Arizona barely got past them too. Chico, who is rated far beneath the Laxcats handled Poly easier and no one has a worse loss than Arizona to ASU in the top 15. I'm thinking that if this weekend was any indication, Virginia Tech and Florida State are at about the same level as each other. Florida State played UCSB just as well as Arizona did (score-wise at least, neither team had a real shot at either win), so I don't think anyone can say definitively that Arizona is BETTER than either SELC team. There is still a chance that U of A will go, but their lives are hanging by a thread right now. To me, Chico is a more deserving team and is playing better right now and there is nothing that indicates picking Aizona (arguably the fifth or even sixth best team in the WCLL) over the top two SELC squads.

[CATLAX MAN]

I agree, Alex. FSU will drop, but probably not below #13 and that should get them in, so both SELC teams will make it. Arizona has also dropped, but they also may not drop below #13. I think that they will also just barely get in.

Look at the teams directly below them. VA Tech moves ahead of both teams, but they were already at #11, so it has no effect on the teams that get in.

Who else moves past them, #12 Oakland? Not after their annhiliation by Michigan with another one possibly to come. #13 Utah? Not after the stinker they put up against BYU and probably another drubbing coming at the hands of CSU. #14 BC? Nothing to justify it and they probably get in as AQ anyway. #15 Lindenwood? Also probably AQ, but have not played anyone in a long time. #16 GA Tech? Not after not making to SELC final.

The only team that has an outside chance of breaking the bubble is #17 Chico, as they are the only team that has a chance to radically change their standing before the last poll. However, in order to do this, they have to beat UCSB in the WCLL semis, and, even then, it still may not be enough. We'll see.

[Albert Man]

It's the last week before the final poll... the time where the message board is even more populated with posters trying to pump up their favorite teams, and deflate teams above them. Should a particular conference get __ many bids? etc... Gotta love the playoffs and how competitive games are. I would suggest that a game between any 2 teams #6-20 (and probably even more teams as shown by some upsets this year) would be very competitive. I haven't seen a score that would contradict that.

Specifically regarding UCSD... It's interesting how teams, in the year they are on the verge of entering their first ever National Championship tourney, are particularly the focus of much skepticism. Oakland endured it 2 years ago... Oregon, BC.. all of them went through it one year or the other, and every one of them proved that they belonged in the long run.

I just don't understand how they got where they are.

I would have to say the results of the season. 4 wins against the top 20. Only CSU, SSU, BYU, Mich, UCSB, and UofA have 4 or more. UCSD's only losses were to the defending champs UCSB in the first game of the season, and a double OT thriller with AZ, a fellow top 10 team.

Vote-wise it's very close #7-13. But by the results of the season, I think the collective voters have done an excellent job. Can you seriously justify one of the other teams definitively being there more than UCSD? Have one of the teams mentioned beaten UCSD or beaten a team that UCSD lost to? Does someone ranked 10-25 them have more quality wins? If you want to put scores under a microscope, do it for every team and over the entire season like the all the pollsters do, and I think you will come up with rankings very similar to what is current. Have 30 other people throughout the nation do that, and you get our poll.

Regarding SOS rankings on Laxpower, it's a good barometer, but not the answer. Unfairly, Colorado and Utah don't have a good Laxpower SOS because they both had 4 or 5 RMLC Div. B teams on their schedule that bring down their averages. Ranked teams on the schedule are a much better indication of SOS.

Good luck to all the teams in the last week of league play.

[Chicolaxalum34]

The WCLL final four is going to be battle. Sonoma is holding there own after losing some key players such as Gomez. They are where they need to be in the top five. UCSD is finally getting some love, the the team can diffinitely hold their own but not top 5 material. I am not sold on UofA, they have been up and down and i dont mean to keep bring this up, but losing to an unranked team is very serious, especially this late in the game. UCSB seems to be on a slide, but they can diffinitely recover, they didnt look good when they played CSU but that will diffinitelly keep their tanks full in MN. Finally CHICO, They have had a pretty good season, losing to noma by 1, sweeping poly, but losing to BC and simon fraiser (then SF gets blown out by UDUB). If 4 teams go i pick in the order:

1- Noma
2- UCSB
3- UCSD
4- Chico

[Danny Hogan]

does the WCLL have a 3rd place game this year?

[onpoint]

Who else moves past them . . .?

This is the saving grace for the Laxcats. Not a lot of teams have really stepped up and proven that they really SHOULD move into that group.

[oaklandlax]

#12 Oakland? Not after their annhiliation by Michigan with another one possibly to come

I love the fact the Zona was ranked higher then Oakland, and got killed by U of M just as bad. Maybe you should look at the score catlax. Teams do have bad games, and I would put my life savings on if BYU played Zona again the score would be the same when Zona played U of M. I have nothing against Zona, but they are on a down. They beat us last year when we went there to play them.

My other question is how FSU is ranked so high. With two going from the SELC where do you think they will rank?

Lastly the strength of schedule, I do not agree with lax power.

Oakland started the season going to Texas. Texas and Texas A&M were ranked.
Pitt a team that was 6-0 should have been ranked
Indiana was ranked
Miami was ranked

It’s not a team’s fault that the other team drops during the season because of a lost or two.

I wish nothing but the best for all the teams that are on the bubble and good luck in all your games.