by Dan Wishengrad on Wed Oct 31, 2007 11:54 pm
First of all, let me say I am NOT a big supporter of Hillary's. I have a basic problem with dynastic leadership, and am troubled that a whole generation of college lax players who read this (as an example) will never have known a President other than a Bush or a Clinton IF Hillary is elected. But I worked in politics for years, and for an Elections & Reapportionment Committee. I understand how elections are won in this country, and firmly believe that Hillary will capture the Democratic nomination barring some unforseen gaffe or scandal between now and next summer when the Dems hold our convention. I will surely vote for her in the general election, and believe she might actually prove to be a good President -- but we shall see. But it is a mistake to underestimate her toughness or her abilities, which many Republicans are already doing, and gleefully.
Second, I'd be genuinely worried if we were opposed by Senator McCain -- a decent and honorable man of principle who I happen to disagree with on many policy issues. I'd also worry if an attractive underdog like Gov. Huckabee captures the GOP nomination somehow. He would at least excite the base Republicans who are not going to be thrilled to support either of the front-runners. But Giuliani will make the base very nervous with his pro-life, pro-gay rights stance, regardless of assurances he gives that he won't use these personal beliefs to lead in a direction that the "family values" voters find abhorrent. Rudy's nomination will almost surely lead to a third-party, independent candidacy of a real right-wing bomb-thrower, and this will lead to the landslide I am predicting for certain. Rudy is a effective campaigner, no doubt, but his own personal family troubles (like forgetting exactly how many times he has been married) will also doom him. If the Giuliani children get out to campaign against dear old Dad, as is expected, how can this do anything but really hurt a "family values" candidate? Repeating ", 9/11, 9/11" over and over and in every sentence is cute, but just won't work. Game over.
On the other hand, If Romney's strategy of capturing Iowa and New Hampshire propels Mitt to the eventual GOP nomination, it will be a "gift" from above for the Democrats, because despite his undeniable intelligence and business acumen, he will get absolutely destroyed in the general election campaign NOT for his religious affiliation but for his flip-flopping on almost every major issue out of political expedience. The Dems are armed with tons of video footage of Romney speaking in favor of a woman's right to choose,for gay rights and civil unions, for tax increases, etc. The guy has no principles at all other than to say anything necessary to try to get elected, and when his record as Massachusetts Governor is really dissected for all to see he will sound about as sincere as Britney Spears talking about what a great mom she is. He won't "play" well in the south or the middle of the country, and will lose both coasts to boot. When our side runs commercials of him answering the question "If you support the Iraq war so strongly, why are none of your sons serving in the military", everyone will be reminded of his off the cuff answer: "Because they can better serve America working on my campaign". The guy is slicker than either Clinton without the personal charm Bill had to connect with voters, and he'll be exposed fully as the empty shirt he is. The unease that many Christian conservatives have with a Mormon candidate will play a role also, but that could be overcome if Romney was a different sort of man than he is. Add it into the mix and you will see a disastrous defeat for the GOP, regardless of whether Mitt puts a Rick Santorum or other "true" conservative on the ticket. I doubt that Romney could capture more than seven or eight states, and none of those that will hold the electoral balance.
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