For the Political Types: A Contest

[TexOle]

I am out though for being a Hunter supporter. He went down a little fast, but I am surviving. I know many Republicans who feel McCain is too liberal, but I would like to remind people that he does need a running mate. This will likely be a more conservative option. I think Pawlenty is an option, but I am now wondering if there is a person more to the right.

[Zeuslax]

Alright, let’s get something straight. McCain IS NOT a LIBERAL nor IS HE TOO LIBERAL! Saying he is more liberal than his opponents is like saying Hillary is too conservative. The Right wing of the Republican Party started saying that the left wing has been hijacked by the extreme left wing and people started believing it. It’s funny how the pendulum swings. This argument that McCain is too liberal is coming down to what? His purity of right wing ideology? The Republicans have known for 15 years that they are losing the cultural war and I think most of this crap is about that. It's the last throws of the extreme right wing grasping at straws.

Why do all of the candidates eventually have to start running to the middle once they win their parties nomination? Candidates do not win with party ideology, that’s a misconception that the media helps to perpetuate. The funny thing is McCain isn't running right or left. This is where he's always been and this is the reason he's always been extremely popular. He tried flirting with the right and it didn't work. He's said it a million times, but fortunately he had the vision to see that he was not being true to himself and ultimately he found his voice again. Will I vote for the man? Probably not. However, I think he would do a good job working for his positions and ultimately I feel he would make good decisions. I would take 16 years of McCain over 8 with this admin any day.

Most of the country is moderate on a vast majority of the major positions. Then you have a whole crop that think they may have a more extreme view. Over and over again it’s been proven that once people are educated on a subject they often find them selves softening to some degree.

[Sonny]

D'oh! I knew I read Graham's name somewhere.

The Huckabee question is intriguing. Do you alienate the moderates and independents to woo the Evangelicals?

I have no idea who McCain would pick for his V-P candidate.... But I would like to make one point on Huckabee.

As much as the national media likes to suggest that all of Huckabee's support is from Evangelical Christians.... don't fall for that trap. A big part of his suprising success is due to his support of the Fair Tax. (Huckabee ran some ads that said his first day on the job as POTUS, he would abolish the IRS.) Besides Ron Paul, he is the only GOP candidate to support the Fair Tax publically.

The national media pundits are trying to pigeon hole the Huckabee supporters as "bible thumpers." This past Tuesday, the so-called Evangelicals christians split their votes fairly equally among McCain, Romney, and Huckabee.

Food for thought.

[Dan Wishengrad]

Kind of funny that Dan never forgets about the McCain zero chance comment but seems to get a little fuzzy about his own guarantees.

http://forums.collegelax.us/viewtopic.p ... 94&start=0

He started out saying he'd bet anyone that the Democratic nominee, whoever it was, would win against the Republican nominee by 10 points. Over the course of two months he managed to whittle that down -- on his own mind you -- to either Hillary or Obama against Romney. And that's it. Now the bet doesn't exist at all (see above).

It's fine to hold other people's feet to the fire, but make sure your own are out of the flames.

I believe I said originally what I said in the thread you have linked above here, Jac -- namely that any of the three serious Democratic candidates would thump either Giuliani or Romney by Reagan over Mondale proportions. We will never know now. I sure didn't mean this to relate to John McCain, who I have felt for years would be a formidable opponent, and have said so. The GOP is wise, I believe to have now apparently nominated Mac to head the ticket.

I will be voting for the eventual Democratic nominee, although I still haven't decided which one I will vote for in the Democratic primary on the 19th. I have to work tomorrow so will not be attending a caucus. But I do believe that if McCain is elected he could turn out to be a good President, and certainly much better than what we have had these past eight years.

I also agree completely with Sonny about Huckabee, and this agreement with him on a political matter is certainly a rarity for me, I concede. Huckabee has much broader appeal than simply to evangelicals. He is one of the most effective campaigners to emerge on the national scene in many years, and he speaks plainly and intelligently on a broad range of issues. He is not the "rube" or idiot that some in his own party have labeled him. There is a genuine-ness about Huckabee that is the polar opposite and antithesis of Romney's inherent phoniness. There is also a real empathy for society's lesser-offs who have been either the target of scorn from the GOP establishment or completely dismissed and ignored for years. In this regard Huckabee is a "true Christian". I also appreciate that he has stayed positive on the campaign and is willing to debate issues without resorting to name-calling and character assasination. He also was an effective Governor in Arkansas. MH is also truly funny, and humor as a "weapon" can not be underestimated.

I am not the far-left idealogue I sometimes across as here on the forums. I am much more conservative on fiscal matters than a true liberal, although I am certainly to the left on social issues. Despite this I really like Mike Huckabee. He may not get the V.P. nod from Senator McCain, but if he does he will be a definite asset for the GOP ticket.

[Adam Gamradt]

It's interesting to see that immigration will in fact be an issue, as evidenced by the conservative booing yesterday during McCain's speech. Perhaps not in the exact context Sonny expected, but with McCain getting the nod, it looks like immigration will indeed be a major issue.

[Beta]

It's interesting to see that immigration will in fact be an issue, as evidenced by the conservative booing yesterday during McCain's speech. Perhaps not in the exact context Sonny expected, but with McCain getting the nod, it looks like immigration will indeed be a major issue.

Perhaps if McCain gets the bid...his feelings on immigration will "voluntarily change". But I could definitely see more Republicans sticking with McCain despite his immigration stance...just so they don't vote for Hilary. As opposed to Democrats that hate Hilary that may go for the more moderate McCain.

[Rob Graff]

D'oh! I knew I read Graham's name somewhere.

The Huckabee question is intriguing. Do you alienate the moderates and independents to woo the Evangelicals?

I have no idea who McCain would pick for his V-P candidate.... But I would like to make one point on Huckabee.

As much as the national media likes to suggest that all of Huckabee's support is from Evangelical Christians.... don't fall for that trap. A big part of his suprising success is due to his support of the Fair Tax. (Huckabee ran some ads that said his first day on the job as POTUS, he would abolish the IRS.) Besides Ron Paul, he is the only GOP candidate to support the Fair Tax publically.

The national media pundits are trying to pigeon hole the Huckabee supporters as "bible thumpers." This past Tuesday, the so-called Evangelicals christians split their votes fairly equally among McCain, Romney, and Huckabee.

Food for thought.

Sonny
Candidate Huckabee used 2 biblical allusions to describe his victory. He has been publically quoted as wanting to alter the consititution because "God's Law" cannot be altered. His campaign has survived it's lack of funds on the "ground game" provided by the Evangelical community in the southern states. If you are suggesting his primary appeal to his voting block is NOT that part of his background, I disagree.

While he certainly does advocate a regressive tax system, I'm not sure in an era of multi digit deficits and debts that a plan which finds a way for the upper 1% to pay less tax is going to be a hit with the middle class. But maybe I'm wrong.

Rob

Rob

[Zamboni_Driver]

Not to hijack this thread, but was wondering people's thoughts...

Rate the overall scenario and each point on a scale of 1-10, with 10 being extremely likely to happen.

1. John McCain will win the GOP nomination, and be annoying to the ultra-conservative base.

2. Neither Sen. Clinton or Sen. Obama will have enough delegates to take the nomination by the convention.

3. The DNC in a desperate move to have an electable candidate, will reverse its decision and include delegates from Michigan and Florida, giving Sen. Clinton the nod (Additional pressure could be placed on Superdelegates by the DNC and the Clinton political machine, causing promised Obama votes to switch)

4. Sen. Obama chastises the DNC because he followed the rules and if he ran a campaign in those states the results may be different, takes his very large war chest and his large following (who feels the move to put Clinton on ticket was evidence of more washington politicing) to an independent ticket.

5. Upon Sen. Clinton's nomination, Bloomberg enters the race to give disgruntled conservatives an additional option.

6. The 4 major candidates will split votes and cause the next president to be elected with the lowest percentage of popular vote in history.

[laxfan25]

1. 10

2. 9

3. 1 - If they do anything, they will hold caucuses in each of the states in March - at least that is what they are proposing right now to the state parties. Given the closeness of the race, if they try to seat the delegates as elected in the primary, at least one of the candidates will cry foul. I think there is a high likelihood of a "do-over" in those two states, which will also address question 4, since it will just be Clinton and Obama vying at those caucuses.

4. 0 - Barack is as surprised as anyone at how far he has been able to go in this campaign - he may yet get the nomination. He knows his future is strong in the Democratic party now, or 8 years from now.

5. 1 - Michael Bloomberg is a smart businessman, and he can do that math as well as Mitt Romney. He would stand no chance - he may be a slight fiscal conservative but he would have even less appeal to the hard right than McCain. He would likely draw off moderate Republicans and assure a double-digit win for Clinton.

6. 1 - This will be a two-person race, although it still remains to be seen if it will be Clinton or Obama. Whichever one of them gets the nod gets the White House. The election will set a record for turnout - reversing the downward trend of recent elections.

Interesting results from Saturday's matchups. Obama is looking strong, but it will still probably come down to the convention. McCain got seriously thumped in Kansas by Huckabee. It'd be interesting to see what the results would have been to date if Romney and Huck weren't taking each other's votes. Someone pointed out that 60% of Republicans were voting for someone other than McCain in earlier contests, and that percentage held up today.

In another thread I pointed out what the key will be the for the Democrat's
victory - the Hispanic vote. When you look at the difference in numbers for that demographic it will be the majority of the Democratic victory margin.

[laxfan25]

Well only two of our intrepid prognosticators have McCain and Obama at the head of their respective tickets - that could give them a decided advantage in our little contest - unless of course the Superpickers choose to decide things for themselves!

[Zeuslax]

I don't think last night was as surprising as the Media tried to portray it. Clinton has some work to do. She needs 56% of the remaining delegates. That's a big obstacle, especially with the remaining states. She's not going to go down without swinging.

McCain's victory speach looked like a Munsters convention. Could they have found anyone older to put on the stage with him. Seeing John Warner cheer at the end I thought I was watching my Grandfather when Olympiakos beats Parthenakos (Athens soccer clubs).

[Jac Coyne]

1. (5) McCain will win, but understand the angst shown by the "ultra-conservatives" is a tactical ploy to draw McCain as far right as they can. Cons may have their problems with McCain, but at the end of the day they aren't going to vote for a Dem and they aren't going to stay home. They're just going to try and yank him away from the middle on the hot-button issues.

2. (0) I think Hillary is going to be pushed to the edge by Obama and she will either 1.) concede and watch her aspirations of ever becoming president die a ignominious death or 2.) she can napalm Obama and the party and go for broke by using lawsuits to sit the Fla/Mich delegates and further bribe/coerce superdelegates. If I know my girl, I'll wager on Plan B. Either way, the deal will be done before the convention.

3. (7) I think it's likely to happen, but not because Hillary is any more electable than Obama. She'll just play the game better. I think BO might be more electable at this point.

4. (0) Obama's political window is just opening. He's not foolish enough to ditch the party (which you can do only once) on his first go-around. If he gets aced out, he'll be a martyr and huge player in 2012 (assuming he doesn't go off the deep end like Gore).

5. (?) You can book Bloomberg if Clinton gets it, but he won't be attracting any conservatives. He makes McCain look like Strom Thurmond. He'll attract Dems to the left of, or who simply disdain, Hillary.

6. (0) It'll be a two or three-horse race. I think the winner will get a majority (as opposed to a plurality) of the votes.

[laxfan25]

I do believe the next round of primaries in Texas, Ohio and PA are critical. If Hillary sweeps all three (which the polls have her leading) then it is still a tight race.
If the old saws of "It's the economy, stupid" and "Are you better off than you were 8 years ago?" hold true, then there is no way McCain and the GOP can come out well in November.
I hate to say it, but the "stuff" has not even really hit the fan yet. The crisis with the monoline insurers can be devastating, with far-reaching consequences. I do hope I'm wrong, because it won't be good for any of us.

[laxfan25]

Well TheBearcat Himself and Scooter were the only two pickers with McCain and Obama at the head of their tickets - that should get them bonus points!
VP choices are the next fun speculation - I don't think Barack will be choosing Hillary - a dream ticket for some but a nightmare for him. Talk about backseat drivers - Bill and Hillary trying to grab the wheel all the time!
I do think she'd be a great Supreme Court nominee.

[GrizLens]

Is McCain (age: 71) really going to pick a youngster like Bobby Jindal (age: 37) for his VP and then try to bash Obama for not having the experience for the office? Might be a flawed strategery!