10 Reasons Political Debates are Bunk
I don't have a horse in this race, as I have no idea who I am going to vote for yet. However, no one has mentioned that Hillary has very definite demographic problems in the Middle America states (outside the East & West seaboard states). If she wins the Dem. nomination, it will be an issue for her. It could be another Gore situation (close popular vote, but a problem with the electoral votes). In any case, I don't think it will be the landslide that Dan is professing.
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Dan Wishengrad wrote:3) Immigration may be a hot topic and issue now, as the other GOP "wedge issues" like flag burning and gay marriage have been in the past. But it's an issue that isn't going to be paramount in the General election, it will be far less significant than the war and the economy. It's also a tough issue for both sides, and neither the Dems or the GOP can completely capture the high ground here.
Our hospitals and public school systems are literally swamped with illegal immigrants and this is a simple GOP "wedge issue"? Illegal immigration is directly impacting our economy and a multitude of public and private companies.
See how quickly the Congress backed away from their secret Amnesty bill this past summer to get a pulse on how most Americans view this issue. (Thank god that talk radio and the blogs got the word out about this critical issue because the MSM was asleep at the wheel again.)
In my opinion, Radical Islam and Illegal Immigration are the two biggest threats to this country. And not necessarily in that order.
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A non-partisan opinion
For those who don't read him regularly, David Broder is the unquestioned "dean" of American political writers, and has been for three decades. Broder is decidely non-partisan, and after reading him for twenty plus years I still am not certain how he himself voted in some of our past elections. The man has no hidden political agenda or inherent biases, he writes from a point of objective intelligence, and both praises and skewers Democrats and Republicans alike, and on a regular basis. Insiders on both sides of the aisle read him religiously, and his words always carry great weight with anybody who cares about and follows politics.
Broder's column today is absolutely spot-on IMHO:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/o ... der02.html
As a partisan Democrat, I reached this same conclusion -- that a McCain-Huckabee ticket would be very tough for us to beat. The GOP would be wise to heed this advice, but to nominate Mitt or Rudy will be a great opportunity for our side to retake the White House.
Broder's column today is absolutely spot-on IMHO:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/o ... der02.html
As a partisan Democrat, I reached this same conclusion -- that a McCain-Huckabee ticket would be very tough for us to beat. The GOP would be wise to heed this advice, but to nominate Mitt or Rudy will be a great opportunity for our side to retake the White House.
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Dems don't vote in Rep primaries. Got it?
I reread my post and think that my "got it" was a little misconstrued as being a jab. The use of these words referred to me as in, "I got it".
Regardless of who votes in what primary both parties don't operate in a vacuum. In many states independents can vote in either primary and other states have "open" primaries. In addition, there are many that vote both Dem and Reb and have to wait until the general even though the two candidates they like are in one party. The individual candidate should be more important than party affiliation. I stand by my statement that answers are more important.
And my question, which you never answered, still stands -- what would you and other Republicans say if it was a Democratic VP who had done this exact thing, intentionally outing an American secret operative and damaging our national interests in the process?
Heads would be exploding.
See how quickly the Congress backed away from their secret Amnesty bill this past summer to get a pulse on how most Americans view this issue. (Thank god that talk radio and the blogs got the word out about this critical issue because the MSM was asleep at the wheel again.)
Both parties were on the wrong side of this issue - according to the vast majority of American people. They are both positioning for this future huge voting block.
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Sonny wrote:Dan Wishengrad wrote:3) Immigration may be a hot topic and issue now, as the other GOP "wedge issues" like flag burning and gay marriage have been in the past. But it's an issue that isn't going to be paramount in the General election, it will be far less significant than the war and the economy. It's also a tough issue for both sides, and neither the Dems or the GOP can completely capture the high ground here.
Our hospitals and public school systems are literally swamped with illegal immigrants and this is a simple GOP "wedge issue"? Illegal immigration is directly impacting our economy and a multitude of public and private companies.
See how quickly the Congress backed away from their secret Amnesty bill this past summer to get a pulse on how most Americans view this issue. (Thank god that talk radio and the blogs got the word out about this critical issue because the MSM was asleep at the wheel again.)
In my opinion, Radical Islam and Illegal Immigration are the two biggest threats to this country. And not necessarily in that order.
Absolutely yes, Sonny, a "wedge issue" being fomented by right-wing talk radio and blogs in the desperate hope to distract the the American electorate from the bigger issues that most voters care about right now.
As your patron saint Reagan famously stated when he unseated Carter, "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?". This helped propel him into the Presidency, and we Americans remember and value the simplicity of this message. Then the Gingrich-led GOP in '94 finished the cycle of political transformation with four little words -- "It's the economy, stupid", which helped the Republicans capture both houses of Congress, too.
You are certainly entitled to your opinion that illegal immigration is one of the two biggest threats facing the American people, maybe even bigger than radical Islam (you say not necessarily in that order above). Maybe Karl Rove will finish his revisionist history of the past seven years and become your water-carrier of this issue next Fall (Man I sure hope so!). But after seven years of the most divisive, partisan, incompetent and corrupt administration this nation has ever seen, the American voters have seen that the emperor has no clothes and are clearly not buying into it. Over two-thirds of those polled say that the war in Iraq is the most important issue, followed closely by the economy. Americans are, luckily, smarter than the right-wing talk shows and blogs think we are. Presidential elections are won by Republicans who rally their conservative base and also capture most of the independents and pick off enough southern Democrats to overcome a decided registration disadvantage. The pathetic attempt to elevate a different issue into the spotlight to distract the voters will ultimately fail, especially if it is done in this rabidly anti-Hispanic and inhumane manner.
Trying desperately to trump up immigration as the biggest threat facing us is not only ridiculous but also not very smart. Business interests (many of whom are wealthy Republican donors) in this country face the loss of real profits if you guys successfully manage to wall off Mexico and staunch the flow of cheap, illegal workers to pick our crops, make our beds and the like. Americans are NOT clamoring for these jobs, and if your side manages to round up all the (mostly) Spanish-speaking illegals and deport them out of the U.S. to reduce the "swamping" of our public schools and public health system, the American economy will take a severe hit as the cost of food rises and the service industry becomes over-priced for the average American and foreign tourist alike. Simply put, this illegal immigration issue is not only NOT a sure-fire "winner" for your side, but staking out this line in the sand will ultimately back-fire -- especially if you Republicans fail to nominate someone without even an ounce of compassion about adults and children who risked everything to come here illegally to seek a better life.
But by all means, PLEASE make this your rallying cry for 2008, and nominate Gov. "Flip-Flop" Romney as your Presidential candidate. PLEASE let him pick Tancredo as his running-mate, and spend the next year telling us that the biggest problem we face in our country is the threat from the nearest busboy, dishwasher and hotel maid. Spend your shrinking campaign funds telling us we are winning the noble, necessary war in Iraq and that our economy is peachy-keen, too. Oh yes, be sure to ignore David Broder's wisdom and blame the Democrats for everything while you are at it.
PS I am not saying illegal immigration is NOT a real issue demanding answers, of course. I am just saying it is being used as a wedge issue by one side desperately hoping to change the debate, and to "keep the rats from abanonding the ship".
Last edited by Dan Wishengrad on Mon Dec 03, 2007 1:44 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Well said Dan.
Both parties are so scared of losing this voting block that they refuse to do anything. The Reps are trying to take a strong stance without communicating racism. The Dems......well, they don't know what they heck they are doing with this issue. The dems will probably find the right stance then pander and water it down so it's unrecognizable.
Both parties are so scared of losing this voting block that they refuse to do anything. The Reps are trying to take a strong stance without communicating racism. The Dems......well, they don't know what they heck they are doing with this issue. The dems will probably find the right stance then pander and water it down so it's unrecognizable.
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I would say the two biggest threats to America are oil dependence (both foreign and domestic) and our terrible educational system.
But maybe because I'm a greenie in pursuit of a teaching certificate.
But maybe because I'm a greenie in pursuit of a teaching certificate.
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Dan Wishengrad wrote:"the American economy will take a severe hit as the cost of food rises and the service industry becomes over-priced for the average American and foreign tourist alike.
The health care and education systems are crumbling, and the Dems are worried about room serivce. For foreigners.
It's always amusing to me when the Dems blather about how all of the key issues on the Rep side are somehow manufactured by an all-powerful cabal. Meanwhile, the Dems have their finger on the pulse of America. And then they lose.
Dems can't come up with a coherent explanation why Bush won in '04 (Swiftboaters, right?), yet they think they've got this one locked up. Why? Because of the war, a war that was going far worse in '04. The fact is Dems are caught up in their own self-righteousness and don't realize the demographic that elects presidents -- Middle American -- finds most of what Dems believe in to be repellent.
You can call the Middle Americans racists, bigots, or whatever the newest term liberals need in order to stifle debate, but the fact of the matter is they don't like illegal [KEY TERM HERE. Say it slowly. I-l-l-e-g-a-l] aliens sapping up resources they are not entitled to. And you know what? They'll pay a little more for a tomato or head of lettuce to improve their kid's education or not wait in an ER for three hours.
It's really quite simple, and those that don't understand will once again be scratching their heads in November and wondering, "What happened?"
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I really can't see how getting rid of illegals would only raise the prices of veggies a few dollars. It seems more like we would lose our entire service industry. Don't ask me for number because I don't have any and I need to go to class, but have you seen that movie, "A Day Without A Mexican?" It's pretty revealing for being so poorly made.
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Jac Coyne wrote:The fact is Dems are caught up in their own self-righteousness and don't realize the demographic that elects presidents -- Middle American -- finds most of what Dems believe in to be repellent.
Hey Jac, what exactly is a "Middle American"? I've never met one. Is this just your code-speak for angry, white males such as yourself? Or do you mean Americans in the exact middle of the country, say Kansas? Please explain and clarify. You're right about Dems like me not understanding demographics, I mean if I really did I'd maybe manage the office of Demographics for the state of California... oh, wait, I did that from 1989-90.
If you're talking about the famous "Southern strategy" that you Republicans have used to capture the White House in the past, well my friend good luck with that this time around -- especially with a solid, consistent conservative like Rudy or Mitt to carry your torch for you. Make it all about these despicable Hispanics ruining our education and public health care system, and while you are at it maybe blame them for global warming, the war in Iraq and the Kennedy assasination, too. Don't expect them to respond, of course, they're too busy doing working hard and hiding from Middle Americans who want to deport them.
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Here's something that's always boggled my mind since my family moved to Houston. When voting season comes around they have a sign outside one of the poll locations that says "Vote Here" and then underneath that on the same sign it says "Vote Aqui." Why on earth is it necessary to have a "Vote Here" sign in spanish when I thought a pre-requisite to voting was citizenship for which a pre-requisite for that is being able to take a test given in ENGLISH? But on top of that, to be able to obtain a green card it is also necessary to have at least a minor understanding in English since the forms that you have to fill out are in English.
Since we are talking about illegals and all that I thought it might be necessary to ponder...
Another problem with the health care industry is frivolous lawsuits that arise out of people with "minor injuries" (I know that some claims are real and doctors should be responsible for their negligent acts) getting false information that they aren't really suing the doctor, but rather the insurance company that covers the doctor. Unfortunately the insurance company raises the premiums for the doctor so much that he has to charge an arm and a leg (no pun intended) for his services just to break even. Plus, to avoid getting sued, the doctor has to perform every test in the book even though he knows they are unnecessary which raises the costs to people who just want to check if they broke their arm. These tests are expensive because of the raised premiums of the Insurance companies who decide that it is cheaper to settle a claim (even if they could probably win) than to litigate it.
I don't think that government centralized medicine would be the right way to go because then the quality of health care would drop, and our world leading medical research would stagnate. I think the Insurance agency needs to be carefully examined as well as the malpractice litigation system, to see if there is a better way to handle the claims cheaper and quicker fashion without having to raise insurance premiums for the doctors and hopefully in turn lower the costs of providing quality health care to citizen's.
Any thoughts? other suggestions as to how to fix the health care system?
Since we are talking about illegals and all that I thought it might be necessary to ponder...
Another problem with the health care industry is frivolous lawsuits that arise out of people with "minor injuries" (I know that some claims are real and doctors should be responsible for their negligent acts) getting false information that they aren't really suing the doctor, but rather the insurance company that covers the doctor. Unfortunately the insurance company raises the premiums for the doctor so much that he has to charge an arm and a leg (no pun intended) for his services just to break even. Plus, to avoid getting sued, the doctor has to perform every test in the book even though he knows they are unnecessary which raises the costs to people who just want to check if they broke their arm. These tests are expensive because of the raised premiums of the Insurance companies who decide that it is cheaper to settle a claim (even if they could probably win) than to litigate it.
I don't think that government centralized medicine would be the right way to go because then the quality of health care would drop, and our world leading medical research would stagnate. I think the Insurance agency needs to be carefully examined as well as the malpractice litigation system, to see if there is a better way to handle the claims cheaper and quicker fashion without having to raise insurance premiums for the doctors and hopefully in turn lower the costs of providing quality health care to citizen's.
Any thoughts? other suggestions as to how to fix the health care system?
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And you know what? They'll pay a little more for a tomato or head of lettuce to improve their kid's education or not wait in an ER for three hours.
Jac, I think you were making a solid argument until the last part of this comment.
The economics regarding illegal immigration is a mixed bag at best. I agree that many on the surface would smile and nod to higher prices as a result of higher wages earned by real Americans. Of course, this sounds great and it's just that simple.....nope, it's way more complicated. In fact, most of the figures point to very large gains in revenue generated and money spent compared to resources used. I know there have been some big stories regarding meat packing plants recently that have seen wages double after raids. If we got rid of all illegal aliens tomorrow we would see wide and varying impacts nation wide. This variables to be examined are profits. I also understand the arguement regarding the use of English.
By the way Jac, I think in about 4 weeks you're going to be arguing from a left of center vantage just to keep the Water Cooler debates going and to keep all of us on our toes. The Rebs on here needed some help, because they've been getting pretty banged up over the past few monthes.
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Dan Wishengrad wrote:You're right about Dems like me not understanding demographics, I mean if I really did I'd maybe manage the office of Demographics for the state of California... oh, wait, I did that from 1989-90.
Wow, two resume citations in the last week. Good stuff. We are all in awe of your expansive intellect, buddy, so you don't need to convince of us your self-importance with these 18-year-old nuggets from your C.V. It's unctuous and beneath a man of your power and influence. Plus, if you are unfamiliar with the concept of Middle America, I'm guessing it was more of an internship.
Keep hammering away at the evil white men who create our problems. It's noble work.
Zeus,
For me, and the many who are troubled by our immigration problems, the conversation stops at the word illegal. There is no need to nuance the issue with economic, social, cutural, etc., factors. Some immigrants are following the law and some are not. Those that are not need to go. As you say, it's just that simple.
I think the conservatives on this board are just tired. They get beat over the head with the same stale rhetoric the media uses on a daily basis, and when the liberals are called on an issue, they simple change the debate.
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Jac, if i used two resume citations it was because you had the temerity to make a thinly-veiled personal attack on me, when you talked about Dems not understanding "demographics" in response to my post in response to your post... well we all recognize here exactly who you were talking about. Disagree with my logic, disagree with my view on the issues or even with my intelligence -- fair game and fine. But when you imply that I don't understand demographics, you are going over the line -- this happens to be my professional expertise. Even my GOP friends in California who were also reapportionment and/or demographic staffers argued and debated with me from a position of mutual respect and and professional courtesy, which I found sorely lacking in your tone. When you further suggest that Middle Americans find what we Dems believe in to be "repellent", I also believe you are crossing that line of civil discourse about the issues. And you are dead-wrong too -- Republicans are and have always been in the minority in this nation, there are more registered Democrats. You do NOT "own" Middle America, but sometimes you do a better job turning out the vote and sometimes you win the presidency by nominating candidates that many registered Democrats actually vote for. That is simply good and effective politics, but from my understanding of elections believe it won't happen in '08 with Mitt or Rudy at the head of your ticket. We will have our public wager if this happens.
Democrats and Republicans may have fundamentally different views on the political issues, but both sides ARE good and decent Americans. Many in the GOP love to publicly brand my side as traitorous and giving comfot to our enemies abroad, for instance, which we resent and believe to be hog-wash. Let's discuss and debate the ISSUES, and let's not suggest that either side is somehow un-American, immoral or un-intelligent for having different views.
PS Since you ridicule me and my intellect and my professional background above, please enlighten all of us with YOUR resume -- exactly how many campaigns have you worked on? How many precincts have you walked? How many polls have you conducted or helped design? I, for one am curious to know where your expertise comes from good buddy, do tell, please.
Democrats and Republicans may have fundamentally different views on the political issues, but both sides ARE good and decent Americans. Many in the GOP love to publicly brand my side as traitorous and giving comfot to our enemies abroad, for instance, which we resent and believe to be hog-wash. Let's discuss and debate the ISSUES, and let's not suggest that either side is somehow un-American, immoral or un-intelligent for having different views.
PS Since you ridicule me and my intellect and my professional background above, please enlighten all of us with YOUR resume -- exactly how many campaigns have you worked on? How many precincts have you walked? How many polls have you conducted or helped design? I, for one am curious to know where your expertise comes from good buddy, do tell, please.
Last edited by Dan Wishengrad on Tue Dec 04, 2007 2:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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I must say that neither party can lay claim to having their pulse on what most Americans want. In 2004, the Republicans barely won the popular election with slightly over 50% of the vote, and in 2000 actually lost the popular election. I'm no statistician, but that looks like a pretty even split as far as which party is representing "America"
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