Bubble Watch

The 2013 tournament returns to Greenville, SC this May.

Bubble Watch

Postby buffalowill on Mon Mar 10, 2008 5:05 pm

Who is in today...who is not...who is on the bubble?

Updated: Games through April 26th

WCLL
Chapman (14-1)
Arizona State (13-2)
Sonoma State (12-2)
UCSB (11-6)

Claremont (12-4)

How many can the WCLL get? They got 4 in last year (no Chapman in the mix).
Too bad for Claremont that they scheduled NCAA teams instead of top-25 MCLA teams for I think they would have had a great shot.
What about UCSB? ...they have stumbled down the stretch (lost 5 out of final 7 games) and got blown out in the desert this weekend

RMLC
BYU (12-4)
CSU (10-5)
Utah (7-8)

BYU is a lock.
Utah..6 losses to date and sweep by the WCLL and latest loss to Lindenwood pretty much kills their chances

Looks like the RMLC will have 2 teams in the tourney.

SELC
Georgia (14-3)
Virginia Tech (14-2)
Florida State (15-4)
Florida (10-5)

Georgia secures the first AQ!
FSU looks solid despite loss to eventual SELC champion Georgia in the semis. They won the head-to-head with UCSB.

Florida must be nervous. They did win 5 out of their 7 WCLL matchups this season including UCSB, Cal and Santa Clara. That loss to Auburn hurts...but Auburn may be better than many think!

PNCLL
Simon Fraser (13-1)
Oregon (11-5)

Simon Fraser is in the driver's seat.

The Ducks are sliding out of the picture fast. Their only shot may be to win the PNCLL AQ.

PCLL
Boston University (6-5)
Boston College (9-4)

The league may only send one...is BC a legit contender for an at-large if they do not win the PCLL?


GRLC
Illinois (10-6)
Lindenwood (12-6)

Illinois is finishing a lackluster season strong...Lindenwood is a mystery

UMLL
Duluth (11-2)

Congratulations to Duluth!

CCLA
Michigan (14-0)
Michigan State (8-4)

Michigan is in control of the league.

LSA
Texas A&M (14-3)

The AQ is TAMU's to lose.


Teams in bold and italicized are my picks to win the conference AND receive the automatic qualifier.
Teams in bold I have IN the tournament.
Teams italicized are bubble teams.
Underlined teams have secured the AQ.

12 teams in...who are the last 4 in??????

Last 4 in:
CSU (10-5)
Sonoma (12-2)
Florida (10-5)
UCSB (11-6)

Next 4:
BC (9-4)
Claremont (12-4)
Utah (7-8)
Lindenwood (12-6)

Next 4:
Oregon (11-5)
Colorado (3-6)
Michigan State (8-4)
Santa Clara (9-6)

Note: Records are from LaxPower...let me know if nay need to be corrected!
Last edited by buffalowill on Sun Apr 27, 2008 3:02 pm, edited 58 times in total.
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Postby CATLAX MAN on Mon Mar 10, 2008 5:37 pm

If I had to guess right now, I 'd say it would be:

WCLL - 5
RMLC - 3
PNCLL - 2
Other conferences - 1 each

A lot can happen between now and tourney time, however.
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Postby nhoskins on Tue Mar 11, 2008 1:09 pm

CATLAX MAN wrote:If I had to guess right now, I 'd say it would be:

WCLL - 5
RMLC - 3
PNCLL - 2
Other conferences - 1 each

A lot can happen between now and tourney time, however.


Makes sense. Who is your 4th and 5th WCLL teams? I see Chapman, UCSB, ASU, Sonoma, 'Zona. I think PNCLL sends two teams regardless of what happens between UO and SFU in the season and playoffs. Unless of course SFU gets blown out by Sonoma and UO... Colorado is in because they benefit from the SELC, PCLL and GRLC all having down years.
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Postby CATLAX MAN on Tue Mar 11, 2008 1:34 pm

As of right now, I'd think that Chapman, UCSB, ASU & Sonoma are probably locks. The 5th team could be 'Zona, Cal Poly or possibly even Stanford.
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Postby Ravaging Beast on Tue Mar 11, 2008 1:50 pm

CATLAX MAN wrote:If I had to guess right now, I 'd say it would be:

WCLL - 5
RMLC - 3
PNCLL - 2
Other conferences - 1 each

A lot can happen between now and tourney time, however.

I think you have it right, but there is bound to be an upset in one of the other conference championships. My guess is the PCLL or CCLA. Assuming that happens, the WCLL probably only send 4 teams.
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Postby nhoskins on Tue Mar 11, 2008 1:56 pm

Ravaging Beast wrote:
CATLAX MAN wrote:If I had to guess right now, I 'd say it would be:

WCLL - 5
RMLC - 3
PNCLL - 2
Other conferences - 1 each

A lot can happen between now and tourney time, however.

I think you have it right, but there is bound to be an upset in one of the other conference championships. My guess is the PCLL or CCLA. Assuming that happens, the WCLL probably only send 4 teams.


I don't think a PCLL or CCLA upset will matter. Both BC and NE are likely to be ranked somewhere 12-16... say NE at 12 and BC at 14. Meaning that a loss by either one in the PCLL final will drop them out of an at-large bid. I figure they only send an AQ.

And the way UM is rolling, I don't think they'll stumble to any CCLA teams. Although that Michigan State - Michigan game is always a heated rivalry.

Right now, I think seeds 13-16 are going to be GRLC AQ, PCLL AQ, LSA AQ, and SELC AQ. Not necessarily in that order.
Last edited by nhoskins on Tue Mar 11, 2008 1:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Zamboni_Driver on Tue Mar 11, 2008 1:58 pm

On the topic of Arizona going to nationals - they need to right their ship really fast. They have lost to Cal Poly, UCSB and Michigan - all very talented teams. But they face Minn-Duluth, BYU, CSU, Colorado, and ASU. The road to getting some T25 wins doesn't get any easier.

They might be T16 material, but if they have no T25 wins, then they didn't do their part in providing a body of work the pollsters can interpret, and don't deserve to go to nationals.
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Postby CATLAX MAN on Tue Mar 11, 2008 2:05 pm

nhoskins wrote:I don't think a PCLL or CCLA upset will matter. Both BC and NE are likely to be ranked somewhere 12-16... say NE at 12 and BC at 14. Meaning that a loss by either one in the PCLL final will drop them out of an at-large bid. I figure they only send an AQ.


I agree that it's likely at this point that they will get an AQ only. However, I think both teams will be/should be rated lower that what you've got them at. Northeastern lost their fist 4 games, one of them to unrated Stanford. That's got to translate to a precipitous drop for them. BC has also lost to lower rated teams, who in turn, have also lost to unrated teams. Makes BC loss looks worse, IMO. Neither team has a way to fix their problem either, as they only have FSU left on their schedules as far as rated teams are concerned.
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Postby Laxbum on Tue Mar 11, 2008 2:17 pm

nhoskins wrote:
CATLAX MAN wrote:If I had to guess right now, I 'd say it would be:

WCLL - 5
RMLC - 3
PNCLL - 2
Other conferences - 1 each

A lot can happen between now and tourney time, however.


Makes sense. Who is your 4th and 5th WCLL teams? I see Chapman, UCSB, ASU, Sonoma, 'Zona. I think PNCLL sends two teams regardless of what happens between UO and SFU in the season and playoffs. Unless of course SFU gets blown out by Sonoma and UO... Colorado is in because they benefit from the SELC, PCLL and GRLC all having down years.


I wouldn't necessarily say that the SELC is having a down year. If anything, the league is getting stronger. As a whole, they have some decent OOC wins so far. The problem is that there are about 5 solid teams in the league and they just seem to be beating eachother up which will ultimately affect there national rankings (similar to an SEC football schedule where its very tough to get through each team in the conference without a loss or two. Its just too bad that UF is the only team going out west this year. Although, i believe UCSB is coming to florida, so maybe UF and FSU can put something together against a solid top 5 team.

Still a lot of season left to be played....
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Postby nhoskins on Tue Mar 11, 2008 2:21 pm

Laxbum wrote:
nhoskins wrote:
CATLAX MAN wrote:If I had to guess right now, I 'd say it would be:

WCLL - 5
RMLC - 3
PNCLL - 2
Other conferences - 1 each

A lot can happen between now and tourney time, however.


Makes sense. Who is your 4th and 5th WCLL teams? I see Chapman, UCSB, ASU, Sonoma, 'Zona. I think PNCLL sends two teams regardless of what happens between UO and SFU in the season and playoffs. Unless of course SFU gets blown out by Sonoma and UO... Colorado is in because they benefit from the SELC, PCLL and GRLC all having down years.


I wouldn't necessarily say that the SELC is having a down year. If anything, the league is getting stronger. As a whole, they have some decent OOC wins so far. The problem is that there are about 5 solid teams in the league and they just seem to be beating eachother up which will ultimately affect there national rankings (similar to an SEC football schedule where its very tough to get through each team in the conference without a loss or two. Its just too bad that UF is the only team going out west this year. Although, i believe UCSB is coming to florida, so maybe UF and FSU can put something together against a solid top 5 team.

Still a lot of season left to be played....


The SELC Div 1 seems to be a lot like the PNCLL Div 2... a bunch of decent teams beating up on eachother, and not playing enough OOC to prove they deserve to be ranked higher on a national level.
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Postby More Cowbell on Tue Mar 11, 2008 2:32 pm

CATLAX MAN wrote:
nhoskins wrote:I don't think a PCLL or CCLA upset will matter. Both BC and NE are likely to be ranked somewhere 12-16... say NE at 12 and BC at 14. Meaning that a loss by either one in the PCLL final will drop them out of an at-large bid. I figure they only send an AQ.


I agree that it's likely at this point that they will get an AQ only. However, I think both teams will be/should be rated lower that what you've got them at. Northeastern lost their fist 4 games, one of them to unrated Stanford. That's got to translate to a precipitous drop for them. BC has also lost to lower rated teams, who in turn, have also lost to unrated teams. Makes BC loss looks worse, IMO. Neither team has a way to fix their problem either, as they only have FSU left on their schedules as far as rated teams are concerned.


BC has lost to one lower ranked team (Georgia), in their first game of the season. They also played a very tight game with the #2 team in the country. Their other loss was to #5 Duluth. Its not like they have dropped a bunch of games to low ranked teams. If they beat FSU and Northeastern, i think they at least have to be considered for an at-large if they were to lose the AQ.

I dont see 5 WCLL teams going. I'm not sure why everyone is giving sonoma a free ride to nationals already when they havent beat anyone, and I dont understand why anyone would put Arizona in there when they have yet to beat a ranked opponent.

Luckily we still have a lot of lacrosse to be played, but as of right now I think it is more likely that we see 2 PCLL or SELC teams in the tourney than 5 WCLL teams.
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Postby Ravaging Beast on Tue Mar 11, 2008 2:38 pm

Can you name two PCLL teams or two SELC teams that are better than Sonoma or Arizona? I don't think so.
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Postby More Cowbell on Tue Mar 11, 2008 2:43 pm

record wise this year I would put georgia ahead of them. and for pcll i'm saying that if BC were to lose the AQ, I could see them going over a team like arizona
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Postby Ravaging Beast on Tue Mar 11, 2008 2:45 pm

More Cowbell wrote:record wise this year I would put georgia ahead of them. and for pcll i'm saying that if BC were to lose the AQ, I could see them going over a team like arizona


I see BC being able to knock off the 5th WCLL team, but I don't see that happening with Northeastern, Florida, Georgia, etc. Could happen with FSU though.
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Postby More Cowbell on Tue Mar 11, 2008 2:46 pm

CATLAX MAN wrote:
nhoskins wrote:I don't think a PCLL or CCLA upset will matter. Both BC and NE are likely to be ranked somewhere 12-16... say NE at 12 and BC at 14. Meaning that a loss by either one in the PCLL final will drop them out of an at-large bid. I figure they only send an AQ.


I agree that it's likely at this point that they will get an AQ only. However, I think both teams will be/should be rated lower that what you've got them at. Northeastern lost their fist 4 games, one of them to unrated Stanford. That's got to translate to a precipitous drop for them. BC has also lost to lower rated teams, who in turn, have also lost to unrated teams. Makes BC loss looks worse, IMO. Neither team has a way to fix their problem either, as they only have FSU left on their schedules as far as rated teams are concerned.


I dont know who youre talking about. Georgia's only losses have come to Florida Lindenwood, and VTech, all ranked.
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