Bubble Watch

[CATLAX MAN]

Yes, it was a bad loss and they dropped in the polls because of it.....rightfully so. There is no argument about that. They were able to work their way back up because they had more games to play against highly rated teams, some of which that they won.....and were rewarded in the polls for doing so.

[More Cowbell]

They dropped due to the loss to Utah. They didnt then drop further because of Westminster's loss to Davis. In fact I dont remember anyone ever even relating that loss back to UCSB. This is probably because no one wanted to fault SB for a game that they had nothing to do with.

The number of variables that exist between the BC-UGA game, the UF-UGA game and the UF-LMU game is so high that it makes drawing conclusions about BC because of the Florida LMU game very difficult

BC lost to Georgia by 2 goals. They also lost to CSU by 2 goals. Does that mean that Georgia is as good as CSU? No, because they were 2 completely different games.

[CATLAX MAN]

No, but it does mean that Georgia & Florida were probably both overrated at the time. When a voter goes back near the end of the year and judges that team's body of work for the only poll that counts.....the last one....a different perspective is given to those games.

BC's problem every year is that they have no way to move the needle on their ranking towards the end of the season due to the lack of rated teams that they will be playing. These early season games are crucial to getting their ranking up. Since there was a stumble there, it would appear that you need to win the AQ to be sure about punching your ticket to Dallas. Putting your hopes in getting at at-large is a dicey situation right now, IMO.

[UkraineNotWeak]

Huh???? The North is better than the Central?? Are you sure you didn't mean that the other way around?

Ah. My bad. Yes, what you said.

[More Cowbell]

I find it easier to believe that Florida simply choked in the 4th quarter of a 4 goal game than that Florida and Georgia are both overrated. It's not like LMU went and dominated the SELC, thus proving WCLL dominance. They lost to FSU, then only beat unranked GTech by 2.

So FSU beats LMU, who beats Florida, who beats Georgia, who beats FSU. These are the kind of circles we run in when we employ your logic.

BC will still play FSU and Northeastern (probably twice) before the end of the season. That, coupled with a close loss to CSU (Which everyone basically called a win for UMD last year), doesnt make for a resume that would be trumped by the 5th best WCLL team, in my opinion.

[CATLAX MAN]

BC will still play FSU and Northeastern (probably twice) before the end of the season. That, coupled with a close loss to CSU (Which everyone basically called a win for UMD last year), doesnt make for a resume that would be trumped by the 5th best WCLL team, in my opinion.

Maybe, maybe not. Time will tell. It clearly is a bigger problem for Northeastern than it is for BC, but I still would want the AQ, just to make sure.

[COlaxer]

Hi guys...I know this is a little off topic, but could definitely have an impact on MCLA at-large bids from the WCLL.

Is the Central #1 team facing the North #2 team again this year or is it switched up? Thanks.

Yes, I agree that the North is the weakest overall division. Santa Clara, Cal and Stanford are all really solid teams.

What about the South and LA divisions? UCSB, Chapman, ASU, and Arizona will most likely be these four teams. Two of them will not be attending the WCLL Tournament in San Diego. How does that play out in the minds of the rest of the MCLA? Are the two teams that don't make it not worthy? Or is it the fact that the WCLL playoff structure is aligned in such a way that the it will eliminate one or two top teams every year. I can clearly see the WCLL sending at least 5 teams to Dallas. Yes, both ASU and Arizona have to win some games, but they are both about to click and be very dangerous.

[azlaxmax45]

COlaxer,
i dont think that the playoff matchup have been announced yet. Last year was south vs. la, but it could be different this year, in fact i believe it changes every year.

[CATLAX MAN]

What about the South and LA divisions? UCSB, Chapman, ASU, and Arizona will most likely be these four teams. Two of them will not be attending the WCLL Tournament in San Diego.

This happened 2 years ago when UCSB lost to UCSD in the WCLL playoffs. They did not make the conference semifinals, but still made it to Dallas.

[PNWLaxer]

I believe the same thing happened in 2001 when Stanford lost in the first round of playoffs but subsequently went on to lose to CSU in St. Louis.

[buffalowill]

The problem with relating the BC loss to Georgia and the UCSB loss to Utah is in the body of work over the season for those two teams. UCSB was able to amass enough solid wins through out the season that even as the Utah loss "became worse" it was easy to overlook when looking at the entire season.

BC on the other hand does not have the luxury of a strong in conference slate. Their loss to Georgia really hurts them when analyzing their body of work.

Second we cannot say that LMU's wins are a fluke and that they did not beat some good teams in the SELC. I currently have LMU as #7 in the WCLL, not #5. We are talking about the #7 WCLL team losing to the probable SELC #1 and AQ by 3 and defeating Florida and Tech away from home. These games were not at a neutral site or anything. It is always much more difficult to win in the opponent's house. It is too early to tell which loss will "look better"...Georgia or Florida State. Even though Georgia has beaten Florida State in the regular season they have more losses and drop below FSU in the ranking due to the recent loss to Virginia Tech. Florida State on the other hand has a better overall record. I am not saying it is fair, just how it may be perceived.

I also think Stanford may get a nod before LMU because of the unbalanced WCLL divisions. It would be very hard to give an at-large to a team that doesn't even go to their conference playoffs! Stanford on the other hand is in the driver's seat in the Central (or at least to MAKE the quarters).

[buffalowill]

updated through March 13th

[buffalowill]

bumper

[CATLAX MAN]

Barring any upsets in conference tourneys, the most likely scenario for the field of 16 (as of right now):

WCLL - 4
RMLC - 3
SELC - 2
PNCLL - 2
Other conferences - 1 each

[Zamboni_Driver]

RMLC - 3

Care to identify who the 3 are?? And what their final records will be entering the national tourney....